Political

Changing shoes in a jump: how the Western media perceived Lukashenka’s congratulations on the Independence Day of Ukraine 

President of Belarus Oleksandr Lukashenko, who supports Russia in the war with Ukraine, congratulated Ukrainians on Independence Day. He called it a hard-working and warm-hearted nation, and expressed his best wishes. 

In this difficult time for our country, such statements by Lukashenka are not so much surprising as indignant, as the actions of his regime contribute to the threat of the country’s sovereignty, with which he publicly congratulates Ukrainians. Western media perceived this as an extremely cynical gesture, trying to hide the real role of Belarus in the conflict and divert attention from complicity in military aggression.

Polish edition “To the Thing” reminded that Lukashenko supports Russian President Vladimir Putin in the war with Ukraine and that Belarus is also an aggressor country that has made its territory available for attack – on February 24, 2022, the Russians entered Ukraine from the north.

Belarusian forces do not take part in direct combat operations on the front, but Putin has long pressured Lukashenka to get his country actively involved in the war.

A weak satellite of the Kremlin?

The head of the Belarusian state Oleksandr Lukashenko stands behind the shoulders of the master of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, and congratulates Ukraine on its independence. What does this mean? – the German edition is questioned Berliner Zeitung.

The publication emphasizes that although Lukashenko often gives the impression that he obeys Putin’s will, in fact he maintains a certain level of independence, in particular in matters of state sovereignty and his own currency. Lukashenko also wants to cooperate with China as a potential mediator in the war in Ukraine, which shows his desire to maintain a certain balance in foreign policy. Putin, although he seeks to reduce the sovereignty of Belarus, does not have enough influence on Belarusian society and the state apparatus, which is completely controlled by Lukashenko. The cliché common in the Western world about Lukashenka as a “weak satellite” of Russia is false, as it does not take into account all the complexity of the situation. One of the proofs of this is the fact that Belarus has not yet sent its soldiers to war in Ukraine, despite the Kremlin’s expectations.

Not long ago, Lukashenko accused Ukraine of allegedly trying to push Russia to use nuclear weapons. Ukraine’s military offensive in the Kursk region of Russia, according to Lukashenko in an interview with the Russian state TV channel “Rosiya-1”, is an attempt to provoke a radical response from Russia. The Berliner Zeitung quotes an expert on Belarusian affairs who chose to remain anonymous. He notes that Lukashenko uses double standards, changing his rhetoric depending on the audience he is addressing. This is part of his strategic game where he tries to maneuver between different political interests.

See also  Hezbollah: when fanaticism becomes a national idea

Dove of peace?

German news resource “ND Current” writes about Lukashenka’s attempts to act on the diplomatic front and position himself as a “dove of peace”. The publication emphasizes that with his current call for negotiations, Lukashenko simultaneously supports several narratives of Russian propaganda. There are references to secret sources that call current events a conspiracy by anonymous powerful individuals. There is an idea about “fraternal nations”, which actually have the same interests and only external forces are trying to quarrel them. However, there are certain deviations from the well-known Moscow narrative. Russia considers Ukraine only as a tool of NATO. Therefore, for a long time, the Kremlin has been articulating the opinion that peace negotiations are possible only with the United States. Instead, Lukashenko recently began to appeal to Ukraine’s own interests. The official justification for the war, “denazification”, is also carefully questioned by the Belarusian leader. 

Why has Lukashenko’s rhetoric recently demonstrated such peace-making activity?

Elections are around the corner

Everything is simple. Lukashenko seeks to maintain a positive image and public attention to his person, as presidential elections will be held in Belarus next year. He uses his rhetoric to reinforce the image of a guarantor of stability and peace in the country, trying to convince voters that under his leadership Belarus will not be involved in a military conflict.

The Belarusian leader occasionally flirts with the West and looks for opportunities to get on the international agenda. Lukashenko seeks to take a position in which he will no longer be perceived as a simple puppet of Moscow, but will be positioned as a useful mediator in a war that is becoming increasingly complex. In accordance with the image of a kind and influential ruler, Lukashenko probably released dozens of political prisoners, demonstrating a sign of goodwill within the country. 

Without Lukashenka, there would be no Buchi

French Canadian edition “The Duty” writes about the Belarusian origins of the war in Ukraine. The publication mentions the protests of 2020, which were suppressed by Lukashenko, which subsequently led to the invasion, which was conducted, in particular, from the territory of Belarus. The large-scale aggression launched by Russia in Ukraine partly originates in the reversal of this suppressed mobilization. Despot Lukashenko, isolated and riddled with sanctions, turned into a vassal of the Kremlin.

The publication is convinced that Lukashenko contributed to Russian aggression against Ukraine, turning Belarus into an important military base for Russia’s offensive. Although Belarusian troops did not directly participate in hostilities, Lukashenko’s support allowed Russia to launch attacks on Kyiv and led to war crimes such as the Buch atrocities and the occupation of areas surrounding the Ukrainian capital.

See also  Brussels under attack: will traditional parties be able to stop the far-right wave (continued)

A master balancer?

 Oleksandr Lukashenko has become a master in the art of maneuvering between Russia and the West. “Russia has always been the financier and political defender of this regime. However, Lukashenko, who has been in power for three decades, sometimes used other vectors of Belarus’ foreign policy to encourage Moscow to be more generous,” recalls Artem Shreibman, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center. “Twice he initiated some liberalization at home to warm up relations with Europe before a new cycle of repression put an end to it.” This was the case, in particular, in 2015, when Minsk acted as a mediator in the conflict in Donbas, accepting negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

What is the purpose of Lukashenko’s policy of balancing? To try to compensate for dependence on Russia, since relations with Moscow have not always been smooth, in particular due to the pricing of Russian gas.

However, after the suppression of the 2020 protests and the subsequent international isolation of Belarus, the balancing strategy ended. In September of that year, Putin extended a $1.5 billion loan to his Belarusian partner to shore up the neighbor’s struggling economy. Ties with the West were severed, Belarus turned into an economically dependent and loyal military ally of Moscow. This opinion is held by A. Shreibman, who is quoted by the publication “Le Devoir”.

Spanish news publication “World Stage” writes that relations between Belarus and Russia have become increasingly close since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, which depends on Russian loans and subsidized energy supplies, serves as a strategic base for Russian military operations. From its territory, Russian troops launched attacks on Ukraine from the north, using geographical proximity. The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023 has added even more tension and concern at the international level about security in the region.

The situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border remains unstable, and the international community is closely monitoring the development of events. The strengthening of the military forces of Belarus, together with its cooperation with Russia, emphasizes the strategic role of Minsk in the current conflict and raises new questions about the possible development of the war in the east of Europe. 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Articles

Back to top button