Depopulation in Ukraine is inevitable: forecast of the director of the Institute of Demography

Ukraine is in a state of deep demographic crisis, which was the result of many factors: declining birth rate, high mortality, mass emigration and war. A significant part of the working population has left the country, and economic instability and an uncertain future force Ukrainians to postpone starting families and having children. Experts emphasize that without decisive action by the state and society, the situation will only worsen, and the population will continue to decrease.

Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Birds of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova believes, that depopulation in Ukraine is inevitable even if all citizens who left due to the war return. According to her, the potential for demographic growth has already been exhausted, and the increase in population is possible only at the expense of migrants from other countries.

Libanova emphasizes that Ukrainian society is not ready for a significant influx of migrants with other cultural traditions and religions. She notes that, with the exception of Transcarpathia and part of Odesa Oblast, Ukrainians mostly had no experience of living in multi-ethnic societies. Sociological studies of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, conducted since 1992, confirm that the level of tolerance in Ukrainian society is lower than in Western Europe. Although Ukrainians generally do not show xenophobia, they are not ready to live next to a large number of dissimilar migrants.

According to her estimates, as of July 2024, about 30 million people lived in the free territory of Ukraine. At the same time, according to Eurostat, there were 4.2 million Ukrainians with the status of refugees or under temporary protection in the EU countries, another million – in other countries. In addition, about three million Ukrainians are labor migrants, but the real number of those who have left the country on a permanent basis may reach nine million people.

Libanova notes that the return of a large part of the Ukrainians who left is unlikely, as many of them have already received residence permits in other countries. She emphasizes that without a systematic approach to solving demographic problems and adapting the migration policy, Ukraine will not be able to compensate for population losses.

Thus, in her opinion, the future of the country depends on how effectively the demographic recovery strategy will be developed, taking into account both internal factors and the possibility of attracting foreign labor.

Recall: depopulation is a systematic decrease in the number of the population of a certain country or territory as a result of reduced reproduction of the population, when the following generations are quantitatively smaller than the previous ones (mortality exceeds the birth rate, high emigration; circumstances causing large losses of people, for example, war).