For the first time in the last 12 months, natural gas prices in Ukraine exceeded spot quotations on the European market. About this informs ExPro Daily Gas.
On April 30, Ukrainian gas prices under UA-VTP-CM conditions were about UAH 19,150 per thousand cubic meters (including VAT), which is equivalent to EUR 31.8 per megawatt-hour. At the same time, the spot price at the TTF hub in the Netherlands was €31.5/MWh. Thus, this is the first time since May 1, 2024, when the Ukrainian market has exceeded the European market by price. The difference was 0.3 EUR/MWh in favor of Ukraine, although it does not take into account the costs of transporting gas from Europe.
Analysts explain this situation by several factors at once. In Europe, prices fell due to warm weather and stable gas supplies. At the same time, prices in Ukraine have increased due to steady demand, especially from state-owned companies such as Naftogaz of Ukraine and GTS Operator of Ukraine.
In addition, the supply of gas on the domestic market has decreased. This is due to the fact that the company “Ukrnafta” stopped selling the resource on the market after the government obliged it to sell gas exclusively to “Naftogaz” within the limits of the assigned special duties (PSO).
Despite the fact that the prices in Ukraine are now higher, the spread is still not enough to activate commercial imports by private traders — it does not cover the cost of delivering gas from Europe. However, if this trend continues, traders may return to imports in order to further sell the resource on the domestic market. Currently, all gas imports to Ukraine are provided by Naftogaz of Ukraine. In April, the company imported an average of 8.6 million cubic meters per day.
We will remind that “Naftogaz” lost up to half of its own gas production due to Russian attacks in February. Part of the capacity has already been restored, but against the background of a decrease in reserves in underground storages and a decrease in domestic production, Ukraine may need to import about 4.5–4.6 billion cubic meters of gas before the start of the new heating season.
