ISW on Surkov’s interview: while the United States is talking about a truce, the Kremlin plans to “dismember” Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, which has been going on for more than three years, continues to be not only an armed conflict, but also a battlefield for the interpretation of reality — both for Ukraine itself and for the world. The Kremlin systematically promotes its narratives, trying to present the war not as aggression, but as a “historic mission” or “struggle for security.” Russian propaganda invests huge resources in creating a picture of the war favorable to Moscow, both in the West and in Russia itself. In these conditions, any statements by Western politicians or diplomats, even made without proper critical assessment, can play into the hands of the Kremlin, strengthen Russian positions or legitimize their imperial ambitions. Recent events have shown how important it is to maintain firmness and principle in the approach to negotiations with Russia, a country that does not hide its goals regarding Ukraine and the region.

On March 21, during an interview, the US special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, actually voiced some of the Russian claims and excuses, without providing them with a proper critical assessment. He stated that the goal of the current stage of the negotiation process between Washington, Kyiv and Moscow is an agreement on a 30-day ceasefire. Only after that, according to him, the parties will discuss the possibility of achieving a complete cessation of hostilities.

Against this background, the recent interview of Putin’s former advisor Vladyslav Surkov to the French publication L’Express, in which he openly confirmed the Kremlin’s long-standing ambitions for Ukraine, looks particularly revealing. As notes Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in this interview, Surkov repeated narratives that completely contradict Witkoff’s attempts to limit Russian claims to only the territories of Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

ISW analysts recalled that Surkov was a close adviser to Putin for a long time and directly coordinated the organization of pro-Russian protests in Crimea in 2014. It was he who headed the Kremlin project “Novorossiya” — an attempt to create a fictitious quasi-entity in the south and east of Ukraine, which Moscow openly considered “an integral part of Russia.” In 2020, Putin fired Surkov as his assistant, but his new statements show that the Kremlin’s ideological line has not changed since then.

In an interview with L’Express, Surkov bluntly stated that Russia’s victory in Ukraine would mean a “military or military-diplomatic defeat of Ukraine” and “dismemberment of this artificial quasi-state into natural parts.” According to him, this strategic goal of Russia has remained unchanged since 1991, that is, since the collapse of the USSR, and even if there are “slowdowns, maneuvers or pauses” along the way, the Kremlin will achieve its goal.

Surkov stated that Russia has never recognized Ukraine as an independent nation and sees it as an “artificial political entity” consisting of a “Russian” south and east, a “Russian-non-Russian” center and an “anti-Russian” west. In his opinion, the war should divide “Russians” and “anti-Russians”, limit “anti-Russians” only to “their historical territory”, so that they “do not spread over Russian land”.

Surkov did not rule out that Ukraine may exist as a state in the future, but it will be a much smaller state than it is today. He even hinted that the European Union could be involved in the process of dividing Ukraine, saying: “A balanced division of the country must include the share of Brussels.”

When asked about Russian borders, Surkov answered that the concept of “Russian world” has no geographical boundaries. According to him, this “world” exists wherever Russian influence is felt – cultural, military, economic, ideological or humanitarian. He added that Russia is “flying in all directions”, but its influence in the world is never zero.

ISW analysts emphasized that the Kremlin constantly used the idea of ​​”Russian peace” as a justification for aggression against neighboring countries — in particular, in the post-Soviet space — and to justify its claims on the territory of the former Russian Empire. Surkov’s statements that Russia has the right to the entire south and east of Ukraine and is not going to stop at the occupied territories directly contradict Witkoff’s assertions about the limitations of Russian plans.

Thus, ISW emphasizes that Surkov’s statements demonstrate the real intentions of the Kremlin and once again prove that any attempt by the West to reduce the negotiations to the issue of only a few regions is a dangerous illusion. Russia has not abandoned the goal of destroying Ukraine as a state and turning it into a territory dependent on Moscow. The Kremlin does not seek peace, but the achievement of control – and the “truce” strategy announced by Witkoff will only give Russia time to strike again.