The initial warmth with which the countries of the European Union greeted millions of Ukrainians in the spring of 2022 is gradually changing to restrained pragmatism. In the public discourse, theses about the integration burden, legal limits, excessive tension of social systems are increasingly being heard. Against this background, there is a new stage of discussions in Brussels: how to curtail temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees without violating humanitarian obligations and creating a legal vacuum.
A new decision regarding the further effect of temporary protection for Ukrainians
The European Union is considering a new decision on the further effect of temporary protection for Ukrainians who left the country because of the war. By information Euractiv, the corresponding initiative is planned to be made public in June. It is about the probable extension of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) for another year – until March 2027. This should be the final continuation, which, according to the publication, will be accompanied by a political signal from the EU regarding the gradual winding down of the program.
The Directive on temporary protection, introduced by the European Union in March 2022, was valid from the very beginning – until March 2025. After its first formal extension until 2026, the European Commission is preparing to initiate another — the last one. According to preliminary information, the proposal should be presented in June 2025. The one-year extension – until March 2027 – will be not only a legal decision, but also a political signal: this is the final phase of protection in the current format.
As reported by the Euractiv publication with reference to diplomatic sources, Brussels is already actively discussing the “exit strategy” from the system of temporary protection. The issue is expected to be discussed at the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council on June 12-13. It is likely to be accompanied by a political declaration by member states that protection will soon be rolled back. An official decision has not yet been made, but discussions are already underway — and not only in terms of legislative procedures.
Formally, the EU has exhausted the limits of the directive. Practical – trying to avoid an explosive scenario where millions of people suddenly find themselves in a legal vacuum. Experts warn: without an alternative mechanism, the burden on national asylum systems, which are not designed for such a volume of applications, will increase.
Legal constraints and political conditions: a new tone of discussion
Legally, the TPD Directive was not intended to be in effect indefinitely. As Martin Wagner, a senior adviser at the International Center for the Development of Migration Policy, emphasized, “a direct interpretation of the directive would mean that it expires after three years.” Accordingly, the current decision exhausts the toolkit of legal continuations — further, only the creation of new mechanisms is possible.
At the same time, the political context is also changing. Many EU governments seek to reduce tension in the domestic political space, particularly in the face of growing electoral support for right-wing populists who exploit the theme of “excessive openness” of borders. This creates an atmosphere in which even a technical decision to continue is accompanied by statements about the need for “phased winding down”.
Discussed scenarios: from exclusions to new formats
Among the options that are currently being considered by the European Commission and the migration departments of individual countries, there are several possible forms of transition from temporary protection to alternative models:
– Exclusion of those who returned to Ukraine from the possibility of re-access to the protection system. This approach will avoid situations where a person temporarily leaves the Motherland and then returns to the EU, renewing benefits.
– Blocking access to protection for new arrivals. In the event of a protracted conflict, this model will mean that only those Ukrainians who are already in the EU will be able to remain in legal status.
– Creation of new formats of long-term stay, for example, the so-called “permit for reconstruction” – a document valid for up to 10 years. This option should allow a gradual transition to normal migration integration, but has not yet found a consensus among the member states.
As analysts emphasize, the lack of a clear exit strategy could lead to an overload of national asylum systems — as millions of Ukrainians would be forced to apply under a general procedure that is much tougher and longer than the current temporary protection mechanism.
Statistics and Contexts: Who Stays Where
As of January 31, 2025, according to Eurostat, about 4.3 million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the EU. In total, up to 5 million Ukrainian citizens live in Europe, the Ministry of National Unity reports.
The vast majority of them are women with children, people of retirement age, people with limited opportunities for integration in the labor market. It is these groups that risk finding themselves in a situation of legal uncertainty in the event of a curtailment of protection.
The Ukrainian government, in its turn, believes that from 30% to 70% of citizens can return home after the end of the war — under the condition of stability and security guarantees. At the same time, there remains a significant part of those who have already socially and economically taken root in the host countries.
A crossroads for Europe and a challenge for Ukraine
The formal extension of protection for another year is only a short pause. The real question is what happens next. The EU seeks to avoid drastic decisions, but is increasingly preparing for the gradual deactivation of the temporary protection mechanism. This will force both the Ukrainians themselves and the host country to look for new legal and social models of coexistence.
In this context, the need to inform the citizens of Ukraine about possible changes, prepare for the transition to other legal grounds of stay, apply for residence permits, obtain official work, and consolidate in the health care and education systems is becoming more and more urgent.
Time is running out — and, as Martin Wagner emphasizes, “there is no getting around this issue.” Europe is facing a difficult moral and political choice, and millions of Ukrainians are facing a new round of adaptation, now without “temporality” as a safe haven.
