Elections to the Parliament of Great Britain are to be held on July 4. A few days ago, the current Prime Minister of Great Britain, Rishi Sunak, dissolved the parliament, and now the country is engaged in a fierce political campaign, the result of which is far from obvious.
Events in the parliament can significantly affect the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In fact, although it is not always recognized, but the British conservatives have been the main political allies of Ukraine since February 2022. Of course, this primarily concerns Boris Johnson, who was the Prime Minister of Great Britain in February 2022. It must be said that although all the eyes of Ukrainians were then directed at Joe Biden, the situation was completely different.
On the eve of the war, a paradoxical situation arose: Republicans in Congress, primarily in the House of Representatives, demanded that Joe Biden’s administration immediately announce sanctions against Russia and begin supplying Ukraine with American weapons. Republicans even at a very fast pace, even before the start of hostilities, passed the lend-lease law in the House of Representatives, which allowed the US president to immediately transfer any weapons to Ukraine, as if on rent. The law adopted at the time by the Franklin Roosevelt administration was chosen as a model for this law. However, President Biden’s administration categorically refused to announce sanctions against Russia, let alone supply weapons to Ukraine. The Lend-Lease Act, at the request of Biden, was blocked in the Senate, where the Democrats had a majority. In the end, the law was passed, but only three months after the start of the war. Not only that, but President Biden put the law in a long drawer and then buried it.
As for sanctions, the Biden administration insisted that sanctions would only be announced if Russia did attack. No appeals, no demands of Republicans have changed Biden’s position. His logic is let’s not anger Russia. Let’s just tell her that if they cross the border, they will have “sanctions from hell,” as the Biden administration put it.
Putin attacked, and predictably, the White House remained silent for nearly two days. There were no “hellish sanctions”. And the whole world was silent, waiting for Biden’s decision. And just then, Boris Johnson said his word. After waiting all day, and without waiting for Biden’s statement, Boris Johnson spoke himself and personally introduced sanctions, while promising to supply weapons. And only six hours after Boris Johnson, Biden spoke. We can’t say for sure, but looking at the way these speeches went in Washington and London, any fair-minded person would have the feeling that if it weren’t for Boris Johnson, Joe Biden would have been silent for a very long time, pondering the answer. It was Boris Johnson who left no choice to Biden and forced him to speak.
Boris Johnson is the object of hatred of the British mass media, which, by and large, are on the left. And it was the mass media that achieved his resignation, blowing to the brim a number of public scandals in which he was indirectly involved. At first, they tried to accuse him of renovating the Prime Minister’s residence, which was allegedly unnecessary, but the accusation failed – Boris Johnson paid all the expenses with his own money. However, Boris Johnson was very active in campaigning against public actions during COVID, and the press used the parties organized by people in his office against him. It must be said that the extravagant prime minister did not enjoy the support of members of parliament from the conservatives, and they used the scandal in the media very skillfully. Johnson was forced to resign. But it is very likely that by forcing Johnson to resign, the Conservatives, as they say, “shot themselves in the foot.”
Johnson came to power in the wake of Brexit, and thereby earned the hatred of European bureaucrats, who see Johnson as their gravedigger. Conservatives achieved Johnson’s resignation in large part because Boris Johnson is to Brussels like a red rag to a bull – EU politicians blindly hate him. However, by putting Boris Johnson to death, the Conservatives lost the core that allowed them to rule Britain.
The current British cabinet is extremely weak, although Rishi Sunak has support, and he is a pretty good politician in his own right, it is clearly not enough these days. The main problem of today’s conservatives is the loss of their voter. It’s not that voters went to Labour, it’s that voters don’t think the Conservatives are conservative enough. Opinion polls suggest Tory voters are looking for new politicians, whether it’s Nigel Farage’s UK Reform Party or Dominic Cummings’ The Startup Party (TSP).
Unfortunately, for Ukraine, the entry of these right-wing parties into the political arena does not bring anything good. Dominic Cummings recently said in an interview with POLITICO that Zelensky is not Churchill, but Ukraine is a terribly corrupt country, and you cannot help it as long as there is corruption. Ukrainian politicians and mass media live on grants from the “left” establishment of Europe and the USA. All Ukrainian politics and most mass media consider only the “left” spectrum. As a result, the right-wing forces of Europe and the USA very often perceive Ukraine extremely negatively. According to the latest poll, the overall picture looks disastrous for the Conservatives, with Labor on 48 percent, the Conservatives on 18 percent and their rival Farage’s party on 13 percent.
The story of the death of the President of Iran also ended as a scandal for conservatives in Britain. The British Foreign Ministry took part in the commemoration of the President of Iran, as well as expressing official condolences. Critics of the current Foreign Ministry from conservative circles gave an extremely negative assessment of the “cowardice” of the British establishment, which did not dare to give a public assessment of this murderer. Especially against the background of numerous celebrations in Britain by Iranian emigrants of his death. They celebrated Raisi’s death because many of them had relatives and friends killed on his orders.
Under these conditions, the official sympathy of the British Foreign Ministry looked like sacrilege and a betrayal of the ideals of Freedom. That is why ex-conservatives extremely harshly assessed these actions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its head – David Cameron, who was accused of cowardice. Cameron has always been seen as too left-wing for the Conservatives, and his current status in Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet is a concession to the left wing of the Conservative Party, which hopes to wrest some centrist voters from Labour. But judging by the polls, the opposite happened: the left conservatives only pushed away the “right” voters.
Recently, another political scandal unfolded in Britain, which remained almost unnoticed by the global left-wing media. Rishi Sunak was the first Western politician to directly call the anti-Israeli, anti-Western demonstrations by Hamas supporters a mafia that wants to seize power and dictate its rules of the game to the world. None of the politicians in Europe behaved so harshly: the left part of them tried to use these actions for success in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament, and the right condemned them, but extremely mildly. None of the politicians in power dared to directly accuse the demonstrators of undermining Western society, except for Rishi Sunak. However, the British Cabinet of Conservatives remained silent, it was a personal statement of Rishi Sunak.
All things considered, the “right” in Britain will march in at least three columns. At one time, during the Brexit campaign, Johnson managed to avoid this: all the right were together. However, today it is unlikely. And precisely in order to turn the conservative party into the center of the “right-wing” movement, Rishi Sunak took an unprecedented decision in Europe: the deportation of illegal immigrants to Rwanda pending an immigration hearing.
If Risha Sunak succeeds in realizing this scenario, the Conservatives under his leadership could become the leaders of Europe’s anti-immigrant movements, and Risha Sunak will undoubtedly have a trump card in his hands to speak to other right-wing parties in Britain. However, the probability of success of this action BEFORE the elections is extremely small. The English courts are under the tight control of the left, and they are doing everything possible to prevent the precedent of this decision from happening. Any pretext will be used to prevent this ouster, and Rishi Sunak’s loss before the election will inevitably undermine his party’s chances of re-election. If he had done it half a year ago, the picture would have been completely different, but now he most likely will not have enough time. However, Rishi Sunak was clearly making some plans when he decided on the twentieth of May to dissolve the Parliament. Perhaps he still expects to conduct at least one demonstrative expulsion. As for the left political spectrum, the picture here is extremely favorable for them. However, it should be borne in mind that the situation is much more complicated.
In Britain, Islamic political movements have increased dramatically. In large cities, Muslims make up a significant percentage of voters, sometimes up to a third. On the other hand, the role of Islamic preachers is growing rapidly. In Islamic publications, it is directly stated that within the next 10-15 years Sharia law will be introduced in Britain. For a long time, it was the Labor Party that used the Muslim electorate, but recently, Islamic politicians, while independent, are increasingly seeking power on their own. Given the majoritarian system of elections in Britain, it is possible that some of the seats in the parliament will be won by independent Islamists, and not by Labor. And the number of Labor seats in the parliament will turn out to be less than the one given to them by the polls. However, the conservatives have no prospects of retaining power.
What does this mean for Ukraine? It is the British conservatives who are the best friends of Ukrainians today. It is safe to say that the Labor Party will not help Ukraine in the same way as the Conservatives. Not only that. Labor opposes the strengthening of Britain’s military power, because they see it, on the one hand, as a waste of money that can be given to the poor and immigrants, and on the other hand, they hate the “strengthening of capitalism” in the form of a strong British army. It is no accident that Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands War are, from the point of view of Labour, a disgrace to Britain. Tony Blair is still reeling from his support for George W. Bush in Iraq. Therefore, there is no doubt that all Conservative actions to strengthen Britain’s military power will be reversed by Labor if they win the election.
The most likely attitude of the Labor Party towards Ukraine will be approximately the same as that of the US Democrats: to give weapons a little at a time so as not to lose at all. However, there is a serious question: the attitude towards Putin. There are fears that the British Labor Party will reconcile with Putin in order not to aggravate the situation. To what extent this is possible, it is very difficult to say. However, if the influence of this anti-Western, anti-Israel mafia in Britain increases under Labor, it can be said that this mafia treats Russia very well. The conclusions, unfortunately, are quite obvious. Everything suggests that in the event of a Labor victory, real support for Ukraine from Britain will cease. No, of course, they will make loud speeches, about democracy, about freedom, but they all have a price on market day. Labor has other tasks, and they hope to reach an agreement with Putin.
Leonid Shtekel
