Ukraine is losing a million-strong army of youth: a nation without heirs and a strategic crisis of the future
Youth in the Ukrainian political and social field is reduced to the function of a “resource” that must work, fight, give birth, pay taxes and “rebuild the country after the end of the war.” But treating youth as a battery that can be inserted into the economy or the army no longer works. The generation that was formed in the conditions of continuous crises, war and despair, increasingly does not see itself in this construction. It either leaves the country or mentally distances itself from the state project, which does not offer any distinct perspective. In a situation where the idea of the future is reduced to pathetic formulas, and the needs and voices of the youth remain unheard, there is a risk of losing both the demographic resource and social inheritance. And this is precisely what threatens the formation of a generation that does not identify itself as a part of Ukrainian society
Ukrainian youth are disappearing: demographic portrait against the backdrop of war
At the beginning of 2022, young people in Ukraine aged 14 to 35 made up almost a quarter of the population. By data State Statistics, it was 9.969 million people. But in two years this number has significantly decreased. In 2024, the Institute of Demography counted only 7.654 million young people. And by 2030, according to experts’ forecasts, there will be about 7.587 million. That is, Ukraine is rapidly losing its young generation.
The reasons lie not only in low birth rates or migration, but also in prolonged full-scale invasion. According to the Info Sapiens study commissioned by the United Nations Development Program, only 58% of Ukrainian youth in 2024 express a desire to stay in the country. The rest say that they are not sure or are already looking towards life abroad. A significant change occurred among those who left: the share of young refugees seeking to return to Ukraine fell from 66% in 2023 to 32% in 2024. And the number of those who categorically do not want to return has increased from 6% to 19%.
A separate and painful topic concerns more than 600,000 young people aged 18 to 29 who currently live in the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. There they find themselves under the informational and ideological influence of the aggressor country. It is quite clear that if we lose contact with this part of the youth and do not ensure proper integration, the risk will increase that they will not identify with Ukrainian society.
The head of the Institute of Demography, Ella Libanova, at an expert forum on mental health issues in February 2024, voiced another alarming figure: the population of Ukraine in the controlled territory decreased to 31.5 million. This is almost 10 million less than before the start of the aggression in 2014. It is worth noting that it is difficult to determine the exact number of losses, because in addition to direct mortality due to the war, there is also a reduction due to a drop in the birth rate, migration, and the destruction of the infrastructure of life. If not for the war, but for the country to develop within its borders in 1991, today the population could approach 41.5 million.
According to experts, among the 4.5 million Ukrainian migrants who are currently abroad, a third are children and teenagers, and only 6% are people over 65 years old. So the war, in fact, knocks out the young resource of the state. Such a situation is a serious challenge for the future, because without youth there is no one to build, create, change the country. It’s time for officials to stop ignoring the obvious threat to the country’s future. Instead of empty declarations, we need not only strategies on paper, but real actions that will give young people a sense of security, trust and prospects here and now, and not in the abstract “after the end of the war”.
Silent extinction: how Ukraine is losing itself while everyone is busy with war
The full-scale war became a catalyst for the process that has been simmering in Ukraine since the first years of independence: we are rapidly losing population. The deaths of tens of thousands of people, millions of forced refugees, and a critical drop in the birth rate only accelerated the demographic collapse that began in the 1990s. In 2024, only 176,100 children were born in Ukraine, while 495,100 people died. The last time the number of births exceeded the death rate was 1990, and then only a decline was recorded. Even during periods of economic growth in the early 2000s, the demographic balance did not reach a positive level. And since 2013, there has been another sharp decline.
Back in 2017, experts modeled a forecast according to which, at the current rate of depopulation, the Ukrainian nation could disappear in an average of 180 years. In some regions, this process can happen much faster. For example, in the Chernihiv region, the population may disappear after 80 years, in Sumy – after a hundred years. Central Ukraine will lose half of its population in 50-60 years. Western regions still have a chance to hold out longer due to better ecology and traditional family ties. But the final will be shared by the whole country.
At the same time, Western Europe, despite similar problems with the aging of the nation, has at least a small, but replenishment due to immigration. The local population is gradually being replaced by people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. And while this creates complex cultural transformations, one truth remains unchanged: the holy place is not empty. If there are fewer Ukrainians or they disappear from their own land, it is obvious that others will come here. And they will bring with them their language, their customs, their system of values. In Eastern Europe, Slavs are already being replaced by migrants from Central Asia. Some analysts directly call this one of the motivations of Russian aggression to try to “absorb” several tens of millions of Ukrainians in order to remain a predominantly Slavic state.
Nevertheless, the demographic crisis can be slowed down. There are successful examples in history, such as Finland, which in 20 years raised the average life expectancy by 10 years, systematically fighting chronic diseases and promoting a culture of health. In Ukraine, similar programs, such as the “Ukraine 80+ Platform”, have already been developed, but the political will for its implementation was never found.
It is probably worth starting with restoring people’s trust in the state. Ukraine must become a country where you want to stay, live and have children, otherwise no strategy will work. Attention should also be paid to those who have already left. As Israel once managed to attract the diaspora to return by offering real opportunities and guarantees, so Ukraine should form a repatriation policy: grant citizenship to children of Ukrainians born abroad and ensure their cultural attachment to the country. This requires the coordinated work of diplomats, cultural centers and educational programs, not just the government.
Speaking of migration, it is impossible to claim complete isolation. Rather, there is a need for such migrants who would accept and preserve Ukrainian culture, and not create a parallel environment. And if it is possible to attract such people, they can become part of the solution to the problem, not its continuation. At the same time, the state shows an indifferent attitude towards Ukrainians who were forced to go abroad because of the war. If we do not find a way to maintain contact with young people who have gone abroad and do not offer them a place in the common Ukrainian future, a generation will grow up that will not only not return, but will not know why to return. Without cultural, educational and value integration, these children will grow up to be Canadians, Germans, Poles, but not Ukrainians. And then we will lose not just people, but ourselves.
Youth as a “resource”: a strategy that leads nowhere
Formally, young people make up a third of the population of Ukraine (about 14 million people). But the engagement statistics are striking in their emptiness: only 6% attend youth events, and barely 1% are consistently active. Half of them are not oriented at all in what is happening in the country, and do not see where to put themselves. And the problem here is not only informational hygiene or the level of education. The root lies in trust, or rather the lack of it.
Today we have a generation that does not know a world without smartphones, TikTok and instant access to any information. They are 14–24 years old. They value experience over material things, declare social consciousness, but are not ready to take responsibility. They do not want to solve the problems of the system, they want not to be part of it. This is a generation that tries to preserve itself rather than give itself away. Sounds like a crisis. But in fact, this is a signal of our unwillingness to accept our youth. We want to “motivate”, “use”, “involve” them when we need to learn to talk to them.
However, the attitude towards youth in Ukraine has not changed over the years. They are not invited to make decisions, but rather issue instructions. They are not allowed to influence the situation, they are assigned tasks. Treating youth as a resource and not as a value inevitably destroys any initiative. Young people don’t feel needed, they don’t see the point in getting involved if “adults will decide everything themselves anyway.” As a result, the number of young people in the country is rapidly decreasing, and not only because of demographics. Her social presence disappears. After the war, we will face a situation where there will be two pensioners for one young working person. Without the involvement of youth in decision-making, management, and development processes, it is obvious that simply no one will keep the country afloat.
Passive youth today is turning into a real threat that social processes tomorrow will be of poor quality, chaotic or controlled by someone else. All this will lead to the loss of subjectivity. So it’s time not to lead the youth, but to start listening to them. Instead of imposing tasks, opportunities should be provided. Young people do not need roles in someone else’s script, but their own tools for action. And the most important thing is trust in their choice and ability. Today, Ukrainian youth live in a reality where there are more challenges than answers. She is losing her sense of support in a country that is constantly changing, but has never learned to listen to its young citizens. And it is becoming more and more noticeable.
Among the biggest problems, it is worth starting immediately with instability and anxiety due to war. Young people live in a state of constant uncertainty: they do not know what will happen tomorrow, and they do not believe that the state will be able to protect them. Many do not have it a basic sense of security, and with it the desire to make plans, stay, have children, invest in one’s future here disappears.
The second serious problem is the outflow of young people abroad. Education, work, security – everything that a person needs for a normal existence, young Ukrainians increasingly do not find in Ukraine. That is why most do not plan to return. The reason is not only the economy, but also the feeling that no one needs them at home. We are gradually losing entire generations. A new generation of Ukrainians is growing up abroad, who identify less and less with Ukraine. And it is not their fault, it is the result of the state not reaching out.
In order to bring back the youth, it is not enough for Ukraine to appeal to patriotism, military duty or the myth of a “grateful future”. Young people do not return to a place where they are seen only as a resource. She returns to a place where she is recognized as a subject with her own voice, choices and boundaries. Today’s Ukraine cannot stand competition with those countries in which young people already live: where corruption is lower, the rules of life are clear, where a person does not find himself in a constant mode of survival. Until this is changed, no emotional appeals work.
Therefore, the first step is to restore the trust of the youth to the state. Without it, there will be no plans and no loyalty. But trust is not built on rhetoric, it depends on decisions that should start with the simplest – lack of tolerance for corruption. Without a systematic fight against corruption, without the fact that there are clear rules in the country that work equally for everyone, there is no point in talking about the economy, or about the return, or about the future.
And only after that it will be possible to talk about the return of youth in the form of a long process of restoring the connection between man and the state. Otherwise, the most active and promising part of our generation will be integrated into other societies, and this process will be irreversible. At the same time, a generation will be formed that will not identify itself as a part of Ukrainian society.
