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Стратегическое сырье под прицелом: почему мир следит за судьбой покровского коксующегося угля

Фотография Вікторія Польнікова Вікторія Польнікова14.01.2025
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Стратегическое сырье под прицелом: почему мир следит за судьбой покровского коксующегося угля

ПОСМОТРИТЕ ЕЩЕ:  Почему Трамп объявил войну сделке между японской Nippon Steel и .. Steel
Фотография Вікторія Польнікова Вікторія Польнікова14.01.2025
0 91 Меньше минуты
Фотография Вікторія Польнікова

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Today is the United States raised tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico. This decision of Donald Trump is not just another episode of the trade war, but a symptomatic manifestation of his political style. He, as before, acts according to the logic of confrontation, passing off his economic experiments as «protection of national interests». Now imports from Canada and Mexico taxed With a 25 percent tariff, only energy carriers from Canada are subject to a 10 percent tariff. Chinese imports received 20 percent tariffs, which effectively means further escalation of international trade tensions. Canada and Mexico respond to Washington with tough countermeasures Washington’s official explanation sounds familiar — they say that economic partners have failed to deal with drug trafficking. But, as always with Trump, the real motivation has nothing to do with formal statements. In fact, this is a purely political move aimed at an internal audience. Justin Trudeau, whom Trump would rather see as the governor of the 51st US state than as the prime minister of a neighboring state, reacted instantly, calling Washington’s actions baseless and announcing countermeasures. Government of Canada responds to trade pressure from the US with tough tariffs and possible restrictions on American companies. After imposing a 25% tariff on 30 billion Canadian dollars worth of US imports, Ottawa is warning that if Washington does not reconsider its decisions, there will be another blow in three weeks with additional tariffs of 125 billion. The blow will be aimed at the auto industry, metallurgy and other strategic industries. Justin Trudeau made it clear: Canada will not budge until the US lifts its restrictions. The provinces are already considering appropriate measures — in particular, the exclusion of American companies from government tenders and possible restrictions on the export of critical resources, in particular nickel. Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario, yes reacted on Trump’s tariffs against Canada: «If they want to destroy Ontario, I’ll cut off their power — and I’ll do it with a smile on my face.» In addition to economic sanctions, border controls are being strengthened, especially in the fight against fentanyl smuggling. Against the background of the escalation of the conflict, Ottawa is negotiating with the US administration and representatives of individual states, trying to find a compromise. But if the White House does not change course, Canada is ready for a mirror reaction. Mexico will also not be silent in the face of economic pressure from Washington. President Claudia Sheinbaum is clear stated: if the US is playing a tariff war, the response will be immediate. She emphasized that the introduction of a 25% tariff on Mexican goods is not only an economic blow, but also a threat to stable relations between neighboring countries. Mexico is not going to passively watch as American trade barriers make life difficult for Mexican producers. According to Sheinbaum, the country prepares mirror measures. American pork, cheese, vegetables, as well as steel and aluminum may be affected. The decision was made in the spirit of a fair response: if the US screws up, Mexico will respond in kind. At the same time, the president does not reject the possibility of dialogue. She calls for negotiations, stressing that escalation hurts both countries. However, if the White House chooses the path of economic pressure, Mexico will show that it is not the weak link in this game. China responds with tariffs, sanctions and a new economic reality for the US ​In response to Trump’s introduction of additional tariffs on goods from China, Beijing chose a cautious and strategically balanced tactic that demonstrates China’s desire to avoid an escalation of the conflict, while protecting its economic interests and signaling its readiness to act further if necessary.​ The agricultural sector of the United States will feel the consequences of the trade conflict, which Washington itself instigated. After all, since March 10, the People’s Republic of China will enter additional tariffs of 10-15% on American chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, 10% on soybeans, beef, pork, fish, vegetables, fruits and dairy products. In addition, Beijing started the antitrust investigation against the American corporation Google, which shows that China is ready to do anything to protect its interests. ​ Also, to the blacklist got into 10 more American companies — TCOM, Stick Rudder Enterprises, Teledyne Brown Engineering, Huntington Ingalls Industries, S3 AeroDefense, Cubic Corp., TextOre, ACT1 Federal, Exovera and Planate Management Group. They are prohibited from engaging in China-oriented imports or exports and from investing in the Celestial economy. And Illumina, a manufacturer of genomic equipment, was banned from operating in China and exporting genomic sequencers to China. These developments may spur the growth of domestic production in China. Less dependence on imports means a stronger economy. Washington, used to dictating the rules of the game, finds itself in front of a new reality: its pressure methods fail, and the world no longer perceives it as an undisputed arbiter. The problem of drug trafficking as a justification for introducing tariffs The Trump administration announced on increasing tariffs on «Made in China» goods to 20% due to the problem of smuggling synthetic opioids, in particular fentanyl, from the PRC to the United States. Trump slightly changed the previous order of February 1, which imposed a 10% tariff on products from the Middle East. The US president explained that the tariffs were doubled because Beijing did not make efforts to stop the supply of fentanyl. US President substantiated the introduction of 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as the need to fight drug trafficking, in particular, the supply of fentanyl to the United States. However, this argument is questionable, especially with regard to Canada, which is not a major source of drugs for the US. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau called the actions of the US «unfounded» and stressed that Canada will not leave them unanswered. ​ Some analysts believe that the real purpose of introducing tariffs is economic pressure on neighboring countries and a demonstration of force by the «global policeman». This could be an attempt to force Canada and Mexico to make concessions on other trade issues or to redistribute production flows in favor of the American economy.​ Critics point out that such actions undermine the credibility of the US as a reliable partner in international agreements. The introduction of these duties is not easy creates economic difficulties are an open challenge to the global rules of the game. Not only Trudeau criticized the American administration, but also hinted that Trump’s actions are undermining the agreements he signed, in particular USMCA – the trade agreement between the USA, Canada and Mexico, which it replaced NAFTA. USMCA was the result of long negotiations and aimed to strengthen economic ties between the three countries of North America. However, Trump’s customs policy contradicts the spirit of this agreement, undermining the credibility of the US as a reliable partner. Washington, which advocated free trade, is now violating its own principles, provoking chaos and unpredictability in the world economy. Reaction of American business Trump’s imposition of tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico has raised concerns among American companies, especially import-dependent businesses. The American economy is once again feeling the breath of an inflationary storm. February data of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing Index) witnessed a jump in inflationary expectations. Suppliers are increasingly complaining about tariffs that catalyze price increases. Meanwhile, Americans’ consumer optimism is waning, with confidence falling to an eight-month low and inflation worries growing. ​ Big tech giants so far remain silent before the threat of new tariffs. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nintendo, Samsung, Sony and Nvidia have been slow to make public statements, although the potential hit to their businesses is clear. Only Google and Microsoft have publicly declined to comment, while others prefer to wait and see how things unfold. Concern over trade barriers is growing, and so are industry groups do not hide your concern. Jason Oxman, president and CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council, called on the Trump administration to act with caution: reach constructive agreements with foreign partners, avoid restrictions that could weaken economic ties in North America, and ultimately eliminate tariffs after reaching compromise Business hopes for common sense, because the risk of economic shocks is becoming more and more real. The American Chamber of Commerce is also concerned about the introduction of blanket tariffs, which it considers harmful to American families and communities. They support targeted tariffs as part of global trade negotiations, but oppose blanket tariffs that could negatively impact the economy. Survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in the European Union showed, that 9 out of 10 American companies in Europe expect the deterioration of transatlantic economic relations. They are concerned about the possible impact of tariffs and trade policies on their operations. ​ At the same time, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan appreciated Trump’s economic policy is positive, considering it favorable for business. He noted that tariffs up to 10-15% will not significantly affect the economy or inflation. ​ However, according to experts, measures aimed at reducing the trade deficit and stimulating domestic production can have unforeseen consequences for the US economy. Joint European opposition to American protectionism The US is igniting a new trade war, and Europe is ready to fight back. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen does not hide frustration and determination: Brussels will not accept unjustified tariffs in silence. The EU will not allow Washington to dictate terms and strike European producers, workers and consumers. A blow to American business — this is what awaits the United States if it insists on its restrictions. The EU is considering the possibility of introducing appropriate tariffs on such iconic products for America as whiskey, jeans and motorcycles. To protect their economic interests, countries can resort to expanding sanctions and introducing non-tariff restrictions — quotas, licensing or technical barriers. This could reduce international trade and deepen economic tensions. ​ Besides, Brussels prepares a legal counteroffensive at the World Trade Organization, where US decisions could be declared illegal. Consideration of such cases may be lengthy, but it will provide an opportunity to formally challenge US actions at the international level and create appropriate precedents.​ Some countries, including South Korea, can pay preference for negotiations to reach a compromise with the USA. They will hope to review existing trade agreements or conclude new agreements that take into account mutual interests.​ Some countries may choose to take a tougher stance, imposing mirror tariffs and other restrictions on American goods. This could escalate the conflict and negatively impact global supply chains, investment activity and economic growth. … Trade wars are not easy slow down the world economy — they destroy trust, destabilize business and hit the pockets of consumers. In the end, the biggest victims of this policy, as usual, will not be governments, but ordinary citizens. According to calculations by the Peterson Institute, American families will lose more than $1,200 a year due to higher prices. But Trump doesn’t get away with it. His goal is not real economic change, but a spectacular demonstration of power that is well received by his voters. And if this means destroying economic ties built up over decades, he will do it without hesitation. Tariff hikes drive up prices, weaken purchasing power, deter investment and disrupt global supply chains. When the US imposes restrictions against Canada, Mexico or China, it reverberates far beyond its borders: the loss of partner reliability forces the affected countries to look for new opportunities, strengthen cooperation and build alternative economic routes. Canada is intensifying trade with Europe and Asia, China is accelerating the implementation of the «One Belt, One Road» initiative by laying new trade corridors. 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