American aid: expectations and obstacles for Ukraine

This victory of the forces of “good” over the mercantile and petty political interests of party functionaries in the Congress and beyond was preceded by fierce political battles. Former President and candidate for President of the United States Donald Trump showed his voters, and at the same time, the world, what he is capable of. He stubbornly blocked the possibility of a positive vote for Ukraine in Congress, while simultaneously making wild and unsubstantiated promises to end the war within 24 hours if he came to power. Neither the Pentagon, nor the White House, nor the Democratic Party could influence the dictates of the radical “pro-Trumpist” part of Congress. The diplomatic efforts of the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Great Britain, like many of their European colleagues, were also not very successful. However, with the titanic efforts of our diplomacy, together with our partners in confronting the Russian Federation, it was possible to move the voting process from its place in half a year.

It should be noted that during the political battles, the aggression of the Hamas movement against Israel, which is a strategic military partner of the USA, took place, and in the United States itself, the presidential and parliamentary elections were and continue to be in full swing. Ukraine and Israel became hostages of political quarrels. It should also be recalled that if the issue of aid to Ukraine had not been voted on on April 20, it would have been postponed again for an indefinite period. The point is that during parliamentary elections, congressmen have to go on so-called “vacations” to communicate with voters and raise money for their campaigns.

These events worked both against Ukraine and in its favor. Yes, even a year ago, no one could have imagined that the situation in Ukraine would threaten the resignation of the speaker of the US House of Representatives. This prompted Mike Johnson, who heads the lower house of Congress, to become a key figure in the negotiation process of forming a majority around the Ukrainian issue. He managed the incredible. Namely, to hold negotiations with the Democrats and take away from Trump the necessary number of Republicans in the House of Representatives, actually behind the party leader’s back. Johnson confronted Trump with the facts and forced him to publicly acknowledge the need to help Ukraine at a joint press conference.

Donald Trump dramatically changed his rhetoric and, as they say, “shifted the arrows.” A day before the vote, he said on his Truth Social social network:

“As everyone agrees, the survival and strength of Ukraine should be much more important for Europe than for us, but it is also important for us! Move over Europe!… Why can’t Europe match or match the money the United States has put in to help a country that desperately needs help?”.

Ukraine needed help in the first days of the war. We do not know how many lives of our defenders and civilians we lost during the half-year delay of weapons, equipment, and air defense equipment. The general public also does not know what tactical advantages were lost at the front. Experts predicted serious territorial losses for Ukraine, and talked about losing the war.

Yesterday, the unusual atmosphere in the voting hall of the House of Representatives of the US Congress cannot be described. We are used to moving around the hall of our deputies, blocking the tribune, even fights, but this is completely uncharacteristic of American colleagues. But on this day, everything was unusual – the congressmen were fussing, shouting appeals, finally waving yellow and blue flags, the chairman made several remarks and reminded about the ban on using the symbols of other countries in the hall. But the result was achieved.

The aid package to Ukraine received 311 votes “for” and only 112 “against”. In total, aid in the amount of 60.84 billion dollars. It should be noted that $7.85 billion of this amount will come in the form of loans. At the same time, after November 2025, the US President will be able to write off 50% of the debt on these loans, and from January 1, 2026 – 100% of the debt, provided that this decision is supported by Congress. This is stated in the text of the draft law. All amendments aimed at preventing the vote were successfully rejected by the House of Representatives. And I will add, about 8 billion of the total amount of aid should go to humanitarian purposes, and about 50 billion will remain in the US economy. That is, 23.2 billion will be returned in the form of military stocks, which were reduced after deliveries to Kyiv, and 11.3 billion will be received by American instructors, military personnel who train Ukrainian military personnel outside the country and perform tasks in the countries of NATO’s eastern flank. It is not difficult to calculate how much in this case will remain from the $60.84 billion voted for yesterday.

What exactly will the aid go to? About $49.9 billion will be directed to defense spending. In particular:

• $23.2 billion – replenishment of defense goods and services provided to Ukraine;
• $11.3 billion – American operations in the region;
• $13.8 billion – purchase of modern defense systems, goods and services;
• $1.6 billion – external military financing (FMF) to meet the needs of Ukraine and other regional partners.

If there are no numbers, then the provided assistance consists of:

• support for current US military operations in the region;
• initiatives to promote the security of Ukraine;
• replacement of defense items that were provided to Ukraine;
• reimbursement of the costs of the US Department of Defense for defense services and training provided to Ukraine;
• foreign military financing programs;
• economic support of Ukraine;
• assistance to refugees and displaced persons;
• international drug control and law enforcement activities, as well as the development and production of isotopes.

The bill also contains provisions that expand the powers of the US President to transfer Pentagon defense products and services to foreign countries or international organizations. They oblige the President of the United States to transfer long-range military tactical missile systems to Ukraine, conclude an agreement with it on the reimbursement of the economic aid provided by the United States, and also demand that certain funds received by Ukraine be compensated by other donors. Also, the President of the United States should establish various requirements for oversight and reporting on aid provided to Ukraine. That is, the help is professional and covers almost all areas. At the same time, as we can see, the document requires guarantees for the States that they will return the funds.

Previously, the congressmen voted on the draft law on confiscated assets of the Russian Federation. According to it, the following financing is provided:

• $26 million – ensuring accountability of aid and equipment provided to Ukraine;
• $5 million to the State Department for the administration of defense assistance;
• $300 million – to help Ukraine protect borders and promote the rule of law;
• $100 million to support programs for demining, combating terrorism, and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

According to the published documents, the United States will allocate:

• $149 million – to the US National Nuclear Security Administration to respond to situations related to nuclear security in Ukraine;
• $481 million – to the US Department of Health to help Ukrainians who received a humanitarian password in the US through the U4U program.

Of course, we are grateful to the USA for its support. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi thanked congressmen, both parties, and Speaker Mike Johnson personally on his page:

“Democracy and freedom will always matter in the world and will never be defeated as long as the United States helps protect them… Thank you, America.”

It should be mentioned that according to the information of the Ministry of Reintegration with reference to the data of the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, since February 24, 2022, Ukraine as a whole has received international aid for almost 170 billion euros.

What will now prevent American aid to Ukraine?

He will spend a few days supporting the Senate, in fact, his resolution, since it was possible to preserve the almost authentic form of the bill, which the Senate had already voted for at one time. President Biden promises to sign the bill immediately. As Western experts assure, the Pentagon is ready to start transport and logistics operations. Nevertheless, during half a year of confrontation, the Russians managed to work well on their own defense, it strengthened many times. This is exactly what our military and diplomats insist on, demanding from the States long-range missiles, the same Atacms, which according to the text of the voted document published on the page of the House of Representatives:

“…the American President should provide Ukraine… if he considers that it will not harm the national security and interests of the United States.”

We are promised dozens of “Patriots”, now Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba and his colleagues are seeking at least seven units of equipment. It is also about speeding up the delivery to Ukraine of F-16s with all types of missiles for them, in particular, of the air-to-ground class, which would hit enemy equipment, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-aircraft systems, warehouses, etc. Also air-to-air missiles that would work together with ground-based anti-aircraft defenses, covering our skies.

However, Ukraine should not wait for aid to be received quickly, its “delay” is clearly spelled out in the voted draft law:

“…Within 45 days after the adoption of the draft law, the State Department and the Pentagon must present the US strategy for supporting Ukraine.”

In addition, political games continue, which inhibit the provision of military and technical assistance from European countries. Time will also be added for the training of our specialists, preparation of airfields and warehouses, etc. Half a year of lost opportunities due to the clumsiness of our partners is costing us dearly. However, I am sure, like most of my colleagues, experts, that over the years Ukraine has learned not only to master the equipment and experience of NATO countries, but also, first of all, to fight and independently produce unique combat vehicles, and today it has already launched them into industrial production.

Yaroslav Erofeev