This winter, Ukraine is on the verge of an extraordinary test: destroyed power plants, heat and resources are threatening the lives of millions. In cold, dark apartments, people are hoping for support from Europe, which promises help and solidarity. But can European promises actually keep Ukraine warm? This winter will be a stern test for international partnerships, where support will be measured not only in words but also in real steps. At a time when every degree of warmth and every kilowatt of energy is critical, Europe has a chance to show whether it is ready to share with Ukraine not only the struggle but also the difficult reality of winter survival in a crisis.
European support: what is promised
As the winter cold approaches, Ukraine is entering a critical stage of the energy struggle, where attacks on infrastructure could have catastrophic consequences for the population. After numerous Russian attacks, the national energy capacity has decreased by more than 9 gigawatts, which is equivalent to the loss of eight power plants and more than 800 heating facilities. In such circumstances, Ukraine risks facing prolonged blackouts that could affect industrial enterprises and residential buildings for 8-14 hours a day.
However, this scenario could be even more dramatic if Russian strikes continue to threaten nuclear power plants, which currently provide 60% of the country’s electricity. Any new attack on the infrastructure that supports their operation could pose a serious threat to grid stability. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already warned the international community that attacks on Ukrainian NPPs could lead to a large-scale nuclear crisis with unpredictable consequences.
Another problem is the critical shortage of gas reserves in the country. Due to the absence of traders and investors who are not pumping gas into storage due to the risk of shelling and low profits, Ukraine may not have enough gas to heat households this winter. According to Carlo Buontempo, head of the EU climate change service Copernicus, the forecasts for Ukraine this winter remain unpredictable, but a sharp cold snap is likely. In the worst-case scenario, when the temperature drops below -10°C and Russia damages nuclear infrastructure, Ukrainians could be left without electricity for 20 hours a day. Such a scenario would mean not only an energy but also a humanitarian disaster that could trigger a new wave of refugees to Europe. European countries are already preparing for a possible increase in their number. For example, Estonia is launching a large-scale charity campaign to collect generators and heaters for Ukraine, while Poland and Lithuania are planning similar initiatives. Even so, the amount of aid remains limited and cannot compensate for the energy shortage.
Ukraine is making attempts to protect its energy infrastructure from attacks, in particular by installing fortifications at power plants. However, even the use of gabions and concrete covers cannot protect against hits from powerful X-101 missiles, which means that the vulnerability of the power system remains high. The situation is particularly critical at nuclear power plants, where the installation of protective systems has just begun and will not be completed before winter.
Despite all the difficulties, Ukraine is finding creative solutions to minimise the risks. For example, solar panels are being installed in hospitals to ensure uninterrupted operations even when centralised supply is interrupted. However, these measures are far from sufficient to cover the large-scale needs of the population.
Faced with energy problems, the Ukrainian government turned to its European partners for help, and Europe responded promptly. Recently, Germany announced the allocation of €170 million to support Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. These funds are aimed at emergency measures to minimise the consequences of Russian attacks on power plants and heating facilities.
In addition, Japan, Norway and Sweden, with the support of the United Nations Development Programme, have funded the installation of four gas-fired power plants in Odesa, of which the first has already been handed over to the city. Such initiatives are crucial for cities that are particularly affected by heat and power outages.
Alongside financial support, EU countries are also focusing on charitable initiatives. For example, in November, Estonia will launch a large-scale charity campaign to help Ukrainians keep their homes warm. This includes the collection and delivery of generators, heaters and other heating items.
In addition, in September, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report entitled ‘Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter: An Action Plan for Ukraine and its Partners’, which outlined the main steps to be taken to prepare the country for harsh winter conditions. The key areas include strengthening the physical security of the energy infrastructure, accelerating the supply of equipment for the repair of facilities, engaging the population in energy saving, preparing alternative heating options, and filling gas storage facilities to the required level.
According to this plan, decentralisation of electricity generation is an important issue, which can help reduce the vulnerability of the grid. The report also notes the need for coordination of efforts between Ukraine and Moldova to increase stability in the energy systems of both countries.
Is the promised international assistance enough?
Despite the promised support from Europe, the winter forecasts remain extremely worrying, and Ukrainians have little reason to be optimistic. Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, which have been going on for many months now, are systematically disabling power plants, heating networks and distribution network facilities, turning the winter of 2024-2025 into a real energy nightmare. Experts are already warning about the likelihood of large-scale blackouts. During the cold months, when the demand for electricity reaches its peak, the Ukrainian energy system may simply not be able to withstand the load.
The projected capacity deficit reaches about a third of the country’s total demand. This means that in winter, some regions may experience not just short-term interruptions, but long-term blackouts that will leave millions of Ukrainians without electricity for significant periods of time. Last year’s experience has already shown that the situation with electricity supply becomes completely unpredictable: during peak hours, the system barely holds out, and as soon as one link in this chain reaction fails, the domino effect causes entire cities to plunge into darkness.
Potential outages and blackouts not only pose a risk of physical discomfort, but also threaten an economic crisis. When cities go dark, businesses, trade, healthcare, and transport come to a standstill. Entrepreneurs, who are the backbone of Ukraine’s economy, are already preparing for a tough winter, but without a constant power supply, small and medium-sized businesses will be on the brink of survival. This will create a wave of new economic problems that will add to the existing ones and, ultimately, increase the overall impact on the national economy.
The main problem, however, is not the lack of promised international support, but the continuous destruction that does not give a chance for a quick recovery of the system. In addition, the scenario of winter survival is greatly complicated by the limited possibilities of energy imports from Europe. European countries are already suffering from high energy prices, so the reserves they can allocate to support Ukraine will remain limited. Some European countries have already been forced to introduce conservation standards, and additional supplies to Ukraine could put a critical strain on European energy systems. In the event of a severe winter, Europe will be forced to focus resources on meeting its own needs, and imports for Ukraine may be reduced to a minimum. Experts warn that such a situation could turn the Ukrainian energy system into a vulnerable link that will not withstand another wave of destruction.
These problems are compounded by the risk of cyber threats. Today, cyberspace is becoming a real battlefield, and energy infrastructure is the main target for the enemy. Cyber attacks are even more terrifying than physical attacks: they can paralyse the entire system in just a few minutes. If key facilities in Ukraine’s power grid are successfully attacked, power supply in entire regions could be cut off for a significant period of time, leaving technicians unable to quickly restore the grid. Forecasts show that an increase in cyber attacks in winter is almost inevitable, and even with the support of European cyber experts, it is becoming increasingly difficult to guarantee the resilience of the system.
There is also an extremely important, even key, question: will Ukraine be able to implement at least some of the measures planned by the International Energy Agency before the onset of winter? The IEA has called on international partners to accelerate the provision of transformers, generators and spare parts – equipment without which the survival of the power system during the cold season is impossible. But winter, like the threat of blackouts, is already on its way, and these calls may come too late. While the simplified import procedures and prioritisation are certainly steps in the right direction, the time required to deliver and install the equipment is not in Ukraine’s favour. So, this plan looks more like moral and psychological support and solidarity for our country, nothing more. It is too general and unable to meet the specific needs of our country’s energy system.
The European support, although it looks like a serious step of solidarity, remains symbolic compared to the scale of the crisis Ukraine is facing. The generators and transformers coming from our partners will help keep critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and social facilities, running. However, this support is absolutely unable to close the overall energy deficit in the country, and in practice does not look like a lifeline for the energy system. That is, in the event of a systemic collapse, it will not save Ukraine from a complete blackout.
What Ukrainians should expect
The above facts mean that the main hopes should be placed on domestic resources, repairs and adaptive solutions within the country, as the risks of blackouts in many regions remain extremely high. Without targeted solutions and concrete steps to ensure the accelerated provision of equipment, this plan remains a declaration of intent, while our reality calls for more decisive action. In the absence of comprehensive and immediate assistance, Ukraine will face the winter with a shortage of energy resources and great risks to the stable functioning of the entire system.
As you can see, the winter of 2024-2025 will be a real test for Ukrainians, where European assistance may not be as life-saving as hoped. Despite the financial support, equipment and political solidarity, the Ukrainian energy system will face numerous challenges, and hopes for stability are becoming increasingly dim.
So, the outlook is really bleak. While last year’s frosts were survived thanks to the support of all types of power generation (NPPs, TPPs, hydroelectric power plants, CHPs) and a reduction in industrial load, this year’s situation is much worse. Half of the TPPs are out of operation, the damaged TPPs have not been fully repaired, and three million tonnes of coal are currently stored in warehouses, which is much more than is needed to burn in operating conditions. However, this is a ‘bad sign’: the plants themselves are not functioning and do not use this resource, as they are either damaged or cannot be restored due to constant attacks.
‘Ukrenergo is already reporting a deficit in the power system, which will only increase with the approach of frost. Even in moderate temperatures, when the thermometer drops to the usual -7…-8°C, the system will not be able to withstand such a load. Power outages can last for several hours a day, and in certain regions where the shortage is particularly acute, there is a risk of much longer blackouts.
Electricity imports from Europe, which used to be a lifeline for Ukraine, are now limited due to the European energy crisis and high resource prices. Despite the increase in imports from 1.7 to 2.1 GW, which is now being used to its full capacity, this is not enough to cover the deficit, especially during peak periods. Against this backdrop, an increase in imports, even with the EU’s permission, looks doubtful: it would require continuous round-the-clock imports, which is unlikely due to the excessively high winter price and possible interruptions from the EU.
Thus, despite the promised support, our country is facing this winter with a cold reality: no European funds or equipment can quickly make up for the losses caused by Russian shelling. Each new strike on the infrastructure is not just a damage to a plant or a network, but a direct threat to millions of Ukrainians who may be left without basic heat and light during the cold months. Transformers and generators are an important but temporary support that cannot replace the stability that is now critically needed. This winter season carries the risk of becoming an extremely difficult test for the country, when the only support will be Ukrainian endurance, the strength of its own energy system and the readiness of the people to fight.
