Political

Orbán’s diplomatic maneuver: a dead end or a new round of cooperation

Hungarian mass media, in particular Financial Times (FT) with reference to officials, announced Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Moscow on July 5. This announcement caused great discontent in the EU, although there was no official confirmation of the visit.

“The country presiding over the EU has no authority to interact with Russia on behalf of the EU. The European Council made it clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine.” – said the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, on the social network Kh.

Hungarian edition 24 the day before wrote that it is not yet known whether Orbán will go to Moscow for talks with Putin.

“The next step, the next step. You should talk about it when it happened.

We have to be careful when we talk about it. It is difficult to assess the impact of such a meeting. Hungary must know its place and its weight. Today there is no dialogue, and without it it is difficult to move towards the world. Europe must hold the compass of peace and humanity in its hands. I am not negotiating on behalf of the EU, I am only asking questions.

If we sit in Brussels, we will not be able to approach the world. Everyone is afraid that when he makes a truce, the other will take advantage of it.” Orban told the newspaper.

However, in an atmosphere of complete uncertainty and mystery, Orbán still came to Moscow on July 5, calling his trip part of a “peace mission.”

The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said on this occasion that the Prime Minister of Hungary “by no means” will represent the European Union during this trip. Orbán’s visit to Moscow takes place exclusively within the framework of bilateral relations between Hungary and Russia, Borrell emphasized. He added that, despite the fact that Hungary recently became the country – the head of the European Council on a rotational basis, this does not give Orbán official powers to represent the European Union abroad. The right to do so remains with Borrell himself, who is the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Orbán’s visit to Russia after his trip to Ukraine may be part of the Hungarian prime minister’s strategy to listen to both sides of the conflict. However, not everything is so simple…

Orbán’s visit to the Russian Federation is the first visit by an EU leader since Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer made an unsuccessful attempt to mediate peace in April 2022. It should be mentioned that the Hungarian Prime Minister met with Putin twice since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. They met last October when they both came to China for a meeting. Orbán then shook Putin’s hand without hesitation, even though the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest for war crimes committed in Ukraine. Orbán also became the first Western leader to take a photo with Putin after the warrant was issued.

Orban’s visit to Ukraine

Recently, for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale war, Viktor Orban, who is considered Putin’s closest ally in Europe, came to Ukraine, where he held a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyi and offered to cease fire on the front before the start of full-fledged peace talks with Moscow. It is important to note that Orbán’s visit came the day after Hungary began to preside over the EU Council. It is also noteworthy that Andriy Yermak was not in Kyiv at that time, he was part of the delegation that met with Anthony Blinken in the USA.

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In a recent interview with the Bloomberg agency, the president of Ukraine rejected the prospect of peace talks based on a cease-fire, saying that Russia cannot be trusted to abide by the terms of the agreement. That is, Zelensky did not support Orban’s proposal. It also drew criticism from Western leaders, who supported Zelensky’s desire to completely withdraw Russian troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine and Crimea before any negotiations begin. In turn, sympathizers of the Hungarian prime minister said that they were surprised by the optimism that Zelensky showed about the victory in the war with Russia.

Why did Orban come to Ukraine?

As you know, the Prime Minister of Hungary has not been to Ukraine since 2012 and after 12 years unexpectedly arrived to visit the country where the war has been going on for the third year. In total, Zelensky had only two brief meetings with Orban during the war in Ukraine. For the first time, they spoke for a few minutes last December at the inauguration of the newly elected president of Argentina. For the second time – at the EU summit in Brussels. At the same time, the last conversation between the leaders of the two countries was quite emotional, but it is not known what exactly they talked about.

It is noteworthy that Orbán came to see Zelenskyi as the leader of Hungary, which is a powerful signal, because earlier he avoided this and sent his foreign minister Peter Szijarto instead. Orbán is now following the path of his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico, who visited Ukraine twice in the winter of 2024, after which the ice between the two countries was broken and many taboos were overcome.

According to Western media, Orban arrived in Kyiv after Ukraine made concessions to Hungary regarding the special rights of the Magyar minority in Transcarpathia in order to remove the Hungarian veto on the start of negotiations on its accession to the EU.

Orban’s visit to Kyiv was rather unexpected for world politicians, especially after his latest statements in which he questioned Ukraine’s sovereignty. He also opposed EU sanctions against Russia and Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Despite this, Orban noted Ukraine’s support and assured further assistance. They said, Hungary values ​​Ukrainians very much, and the study of the Ukrainian language will grow in the country, which is what Ukrainians need. At the same time, the Hungarian Prime Minister made statements reminiscent of Russian narratives. In particular, according to Orban, an immediate ceasefire will speed up the pace of negotiations with the Russian Federation. However, at the same time, he emphasized that he is not an opponent of Ukrainian plans to end the war, he simply considers them too long to implement.

In his concluding remarks, Zelenskyi said that Ukraine and Hungary are starting work on a cooperation agreement, stressing that “the countries have found common ground.”

The US ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, called the visit of the head of the Hungarian government to Kyiv “progress”, noting that the American side welcomes Orbán’s trip to Kyiv to interact with the leadership of Ukraine. Russia also reacted to Orban’s visit – Putin’s press secretary Peskov said that Hungary, which presides over the EU, should fulfill its functions. And with this visit, Budapest represents “primarily the interests of Brussels”.

In general, Hungary is called a “difficult partner” in political circles, it has difficult relations not only with Ukrainians, but also with all its neighbors. Orbán is not a supporter of European values ​​and liberal democracy. He prefers authoritarian regimes. Therefore, Hungary now maintains contacts with such countries as Russia, China and Iran. Orbán often blocks any initiatives of both the EU and NATO, if they do not make major concessions to him regarding, in particular, financial aid.

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Orbán is a very intelligent, cunning and far-sighted politician who always tries to take advantage of any situation. He came to Ukraine exclusively for his own interests. The visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister is connected with Hungary’s six-month presidency of the Council of the EU. Due to his anti-Ukrainian statements and the blocking of aid to Ukraine, he has pretty much ruined his reputation in Europe, so now he needs to take certain steps to fix it and show everyone that he is not the Russian ally that he is perceived to be. The real position of Hungary regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not changed at all, although it reluctantly voted for pro-Ukrainian initiatives and sanctions against Russia, but at the same time it negotiated certain preferences for itself.

In addition, Hungary blocks Ukraine’s path to Europe. At the same time, Orbán’s constant argument is the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. He often speaks on her behalf, and also does everything to create a picture in the eyes of Europe of almost no “genocide of Hungarians” in Ukraine. The history of official Hungary’s dislike of Ukraine is much deeper, it uses the long-standing longing for the lost territories that were once part of the Habsburg monarchy, where the Hungarians were the second titular nation. Therefore, all the time, Hungary dreams of “taking a bite” of Transcarpathia in Ukraine, and it does it to the joy of Russia. Hungary has put forward a list of 11 claims to Ukraine, only after satisfying them should Budapest agree to negotiations on European integration. At the same time, the most scandalous point is the demand to recognize the entire Transcarpathia as an ethnic Hungarian territory. In Kyiv, such a demand was called unacceptable, but they promised to think about others. Perhaps we will soon learn about the results of these reflections.

The Prime Minister of Hungary noted that the war in Ukraine “intensely affects the security of Europe”. That is why, most likely, he came to Kyiv as an ambassador of “Russian peace” (although he himself claims that it is European peace). His friendly relations with Moscow and Beijing are no secret to anyone, and Orbán’s affection for Trump is also well known. The Hungarian Prime Minister chose the slogan “Make Europe Great Again” as the motto of his six-month presidency of the EU Council, which is very similar to Trump’s election campaign when he ran for the US presidency in 2016. That is, it is clear on whose side Orban will work.

The Hungarian Prime Minister believes that Hungary is too narrow for him, so he claims to be recognized as a leader by other EU countries, and also seeks to become the one who will bring peace to Ukraine. However, in order to be an effective mediator, it is necessary to have trust on the part of the Ukrainian side, which is difficult to obtain. One of the steps in obtaining it was his visit to Kyiv.

In any case, Ukraine’s dialogue with Hungary is important. Especially since there are democratic forces in this country that understand the importance of supporting Ukraine during the war with the Russian Federation.

 

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