War and crime: how hostilities changed the criminal landscape of Ukraine

War changes not only the geopolitical map, but also social structures, economic models, and even underground markets. When Ukraine faced a full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, changes affected all aspects of life, and the criminal world was no exception. Under the sounds of artillery volleys and rocket explosions that are destroying Ukraine, an equally dangerous front is unfolding – the battle for control over the shadow economy, weapons and human destinies. The hostilities opened up new opportunities for the criminal world, brought to the surface old problems and created ideal conditions for the growth of crime. Who now controls the streets of the cities? How did the chaos of war turn into a golden age for crime? This is not just a question, but a harsh reality that Ukraine has faced, where the old law enforcement system no longer works, and the new one has never learned to work effectively.
What was once a well-established mechanism of shadow economies has turned into an arena of competition between criminals for control of new flows of contraband crossing the front lines. How exactly did the circumstances for the criminal world of Ukraine change after the start of hostilities? What new challenges faced criminals, and how did they adapt to the new reality? We will analyze the impact of the war on the criminal world of Ukraine and try to understand what awaits us in the future.
The criminal world of Ukraine before a full-scale invasion
Before the invasion of the Russian Federation, the criminal world of Ukraine had clearly defined routes and business models that allowed criminal groups to work effectively on international markets. Ukraine ranked 34th in the world and third in Europe in terms of crime rate, which testified to the developed infrastructure of the underground economy.
Ukraine was connected to global criminal markets through three main types of activities: smuggling, production of prohibited goods, and arms export. Illegal routes from Russia through the occupied territories created a powerful transport hub for smuggling drugs and other illegal goods. According to the experts of the analytical center “Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime” (GI-TOC), the Ukrainian port city of Odesa has been part of the “strongest criminal ecosystem in Europe” since the 18th century. Odessa’s ports on the Black Sea became one of Europe’s key smuggling hubs, opening the way for the transportation of heroin from Afghanistan, cocaine from Latin America, and domestically produced amphetamines. In particular, in 2020, Ukraine became the largest source of illegal tobacco supply in Europe, overtaking China.
Not far behind Odesa and Kharkiv. It is one of the largest cities of Ukraine and has always played an important role not only in the economic and cultural life of the country, but also in the criminal world. Historically, the crime rate in Kharkiv was one of the highest in the country. The city was a major industrial and transport center that attracted criminal elements. Back in Soviet times, the city had a reputation for being difficult to control due to the large volume of illegal operations that were carried out under the guise of official enterprises. This trend only intensified after the collapse of the USSR, when economic crisis and instability led to the rise of organized crime.
Since the beginning of the 1990s, Kharkiv has become one of the centers of smuggling in eastern Ukraine. Proximity to the border with Russia and developed infrastructure allowed criminals to use the city as a key hub for transporting illegal goods. In addition, Kharkiv was one of the main cities where influential criminal groups related to drug trafficking and illegal arms trafficking operated.
After the start of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, Kharkiv, like other front-line cities, faced new challenges. Military operations disrupted the usual smuggling routes, forcing criminal groups to adapt to new conditions. This has led to an increase in crime related to the illegal arms trade and humanitarian aid.
Criminal activity in large cities of Ukraine is not limited to Kharkiv and Odesa. Kyiv, Dnipro and other megacities also have their own history of high levels of crime, which is formed under the influence of their strategic location, economic potential and social conditions. These cities have always been attractive to organized crime because of their role in domestic and international transport, as well as their developed infrastructure, which creates favorable conditions for illegal activities.
The war created “an atmosphere of unacceptable risk for international criminal business”
The war in Ukraine turned upside down not only the everyday life of millions of Ukrainians, but also the underground world of criminal activity. This created conditions that not only made life difficult for international criminal groups, they forced many Ukrainian criminal authorities to make a choice between continuing illegal business and protecting their country. According to a US government report, the war created an “unacceptable climate of risk for international criminal business” in Ukraine.
The invasion of Russia disrupted the well-established routes and structures of criminal groups. The hostilities have complicated transport routes that used to pass through the occupied territories and forced criminals to look for new routes and partners. On the one hand, the chaos of war created new opportunities for criminals, but on the other, it increased risks, leading to internal conflicts and struggles for control of resources. One of the biggest opportunities for criminal organizations has been the change in priorities of law enforcement agencies, which are now focused on national security, counter-sabotage, and other war-related tasks. This weakened the fight against the underground economy, which in turn led to an increase in certain types of crime, in particular, theft, robbery and illegal export of goods.
In addition, one of the most interesting phenomena that appeared during the war was the decision of many Ukrainian criminals to stop cooperating with their Russian “colleagues” and take the side of Ukraine. This decision is often motivated not only by patriotic feelings, but also by pragmatic considerations. Thus, one of the Ukrainian criminal authorities frankly stated: “If we are annexed by Russia, a lot of guys in prisons can be transferred far into Russian territory. Russian guards are ruthless. Therefore, we are ready to do dirty work for Ukraine.” This shows that even the criminal world is aware of the seriousness of the threat and is ready to make compromises for the sake of survival.
The closure of traditional smuggling routes through Ukraine forced international criminals to look for new routes to transport drugs, weapons and other illegal goods. For example, Turkish customs reported an increase in the flow of heroin and methamphetamine across the Turkey-Iran border. This became possible due to the fact that Ukraine fell out of the key routes for the transportation of these substances. Lithuanian border guards have recorded a significant increase in the illegal transport of tobacco across their borders – a fourfold increase in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the previous year. In the port of Muuga in Estonia, together with Europol, 3.5 tons of cocaine from Latin America, worth about 0.5 billion euros, were seized. These cases show that international criminal business quickly adapts to new conditions, finding alternative ways for its activities.
The blockade of Ukrainian ports also contributed to the growth of smuggling of luxury goods into Russia. In particular, the smuggling of designer bags and other expensive goods, which used to come through Ukraine, has increased significantly. This shows that the war in Ukraine has not only a regional, but also a global impact on the criminal world.
At the same time, the war created new opportunities for criminal groups in Ukraine. One of them is the intensification of human trafficking. Due to the growing number of Ukrainian refugees, the EU estimates that up to 100,000 Ukrainians may become victims of human traffickers. This figure is based on statistical modeling, considering that about 5 million Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes. However, as Europol representatives note, the problem may not be as large-scale as expected.
Another profitable, albeit immoral, opportunity for criminals in Ukraine has become the illegal crossing of men of draft age who want to avoid mobilization across the border. The cost of such a “ticket” ranges from €5,000 to €10,000, but this does not guarantee success. According to official data, about 8,000 such evaders were detained, which indicates a high level of border control.
The war also gave birth to such a new form of criminal activity as the trade in military equipment, weapons and humanitarian aid. Criminals use the crisis to increase their profits by expanding their operations in areas where the authorities cannot provide full control.
Forecasts for the future
The war in Ukraine, which has already brought enormous destruction and loss, may have long-term consequences in the form of an increase in crime, which will cover both city streets and the business environment. Historically, reconstruction processes after military conflicts have created favorable and profitable conditions for abuses, corruption and, of course, criminal activity. In Ukraine, which already has a significant but ineffective experience in the fight against corruption, these challenges may become even more acute.
The most serious risk for the increase in the level of crime and corruption in Ukraine will be associated with the process of rebuilding the country. According to World Bank estimates, the full reconstruction of Ukraine may cost about 411 billion dollars. Of this amount, 92 billion is needed for the restoration of the transport system, and 69 billion for the housing sector. Such huge funds that will come to the country can become a tempting object for the mafia and corrupt officials who will seek to benefit from tenders and government contracts. At the same time, possible corruption deals in the construction industry and road reconstruction, where brazen abuse of power is already being observed, pose a particular danger. If the government cannot ensure the transparency of tenders and control over the use of funds, this money may end up in the pockets of the mafia and corrupt officials, instead of going to the reconstruction of the country.
In addition, before the full-scale invasion of Russia, about 9 million firearms were registered in Ukraine. According to experts, the same number of weapons were on the illegal market. It is difficult to imagine now how many weapons will be on hand after the war. This will definitely increase the trade in illegal weapons in our country and abroad. However, Interpol Secretary General Jürgen Stock noted that at this time there are no signs of a systematic or organized trade in firearms from Ukraine to Europe. This may be the result of increased border controls and international organizations’ efforts to prevent the illegal movement of weapons. However, given the number of weapons in the country, the potential risk of their proliferation remains significant.
One of the most serious threats associated with this phenomenon may also be an increase in the level of murders and other violent crimes in the country. Weapons in the hands of people, many of whom have psychological trauma, can push them to extreme acts. Lack of adequate psychological support can lead to combat veterans and civilians becoming antagonistic camps in civilian life. An example of this is the experience of the Second World War, as well as the post-war Balkans in the 1990s, where many veterans were unable to integrate into peaceful society and became part of criminal gangs, leading to an increase in violent crime.
The economic instability caused by war can lead to mass unemployment and poverty, which will lead to an increase in looting, theft and robbery. Many people who will be out of work may be forced to turn to crime to provide for themselves and their families. This can turn Ukraine into a dangerous zone, where crime will become a regular part of everyday life. It should be remembered that in the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, it was economic difficulties that became a catalyst for the growth of criminal groups in the countries of the former Union. Ukraine risks repeating this path if decisive measures are not taken to maintain economic stability and create jobs.
A special threat after the war will be the growth of economic crimes, including raiding and “extortion” of business. In post-war chaos, when the legal system may be weakened and the state focused on rebuilding infrastructure, criminal gangs and corrupt officials can take advantage of the situation to seize property and businesses. Raiding hobbies, which were widespread in Ukraine even before the war, can become a real epidemic in conditions of weak state control. Businesses that survived the war or are just starting to rebuild can become targets for organized crime groups. The lack of an effective judicial system and the low level of trust in law enforcement agencies will only contribute to the rampant nature of these crimes.
Another serious challenge for Ukraine is the possible growth of drug production. According to the US government, Ukraine has recently seen an increase in the number of small drug laboratories that sell products over the Internet and deliver them by postal services. War and economic instability create favorable conditions for the expansion of the underground drug market. If these trends continue, it may lead to an increase in drug crime both in Ukraine and abroad.
Consequently, the war in Ukraine has catastrophically changed the country’s criminal landscape. The hostilities destroyed not only cities and villages, but also the usual mechanisms of crime control, creating new opportunities for criminal elements. The increase in violence, economic crimes, raiding and corruption is only the tip of the iceberg of what Ukraine can expect after the end of the war. In the post-war chaos, the criminal underworld will try to fill the power vacuum by exploiting the weakened legal system and the social traumas left by the war.
However, these challenges also present opportunities to reboot the country, strengthen law and order, and fight corruption. Ukraine’s success in overcoming the new wave of crime will depend on how decisively the state and society can resist this phenomenon. The reconstruction of the country should not be only the reconstruction of destroyed buildings, it will be necessary to create a new, stronger foundation for law and order through the involvement of professional law enforcement officers who have extensive experience in effective work.
Oksana Ishchenko