Expert thought

Experts on the peace summit in Switzerland

The two-day Peace Summit convened at the initiative of Ukraine ended in the Swiss resort town of Bürgenstock.

Russia was not invited to the summit. Meanwhile, on Friday, Vladimir Putin put forward his “peace plan,” which calls for Ukraine’s voluntary relinquishment of four regions in the country’s southeast within their administrative borders and NATO membership, as well as the West’s immediate renunciation of economic sanctions against Russia. In Ukraine and the countries that support it, Putin’s proposal is regarded as a banal ultimatum.

Director of the Institute of World Politics, analyst Evgeny Magda sees in Vladimir Putin’s attempt to divert attention from the World Summit in Switzerland a continuation of the line that goes back to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and continued in December 2021 and February 2022.

“This is a line on Russia’s exceptionalism. It is strange to see when the head of state, which is the legal successor of the USSR, offers practically the same thing that Hitler offered in Munich to Great Britain and France. The logic behind capturing these four areas is that it provides operational space. We understand that Dnipro, among other things, is also a landmark. But if Hitler only threatened war in Munich, now a large-scale war – the largest in the world since 1945 – has been going on for almost 850 days.” – states the expert.

Magda emphasizes that none of the four regions “included in the Russian Federation” has been completely captured by the Russian army. And that is why Putin’s “peace proposals” are just a bluff. In his opinion, most of the world community was present in Switzerland. But there were those who refused to go, and those who refused at the last moment. There were those who initially did not intend to go, for example, China. This is evidence that the summit does matter. If he was as “passable” as they say about him in the Russian Federation, then they would simply not pay attention to him,” the analyst explains.

Magda explains the fact that only three out of ten items proposed by Volodymyr Zelensky made it to the agenda of the summit by the fact that the organizers of the forum initially counted on the participation of China.

“On the other hand, if there are more points, it is more difficult to get an agreed solution. The main achievement is that the war was called a war, and that Russia is responsible for instigating the war. I would not like to belittle the importance of the joint document – because it is only the beginning of a long journey.”, – says the expert.

The participants of the forum performed, as they say, “in their repertoire”, states Magda:

“None of them did some kind of public “salto-mortale” and did not roll over to the other side. It was clear that Turkey and Saudi Arabia will have their position taking into account Russian interests, that Switzerland will be neutral and equidistant – even after Lavrov’s words that Switzerland is no longer neutral.

It was clear that EU and NATO countries would criticize Russia, and even who in what tone. Can we expect Russia to come to the next Summit? Putin, speaking with a “stand-up” on the eve of the Peace Summit, showed that he does not need anyone and that he can manage on his own. Everything will continue to depend on the situation on the front line. No matter what the tricks and moves of diplomats, until there are radical changes and Russia is not constantly defeated, no changes will happen.” – explained the analyst.

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He also reminded that Zelenskyi’s peace initiatives were announced in the fall of 2022, after the successes of the Armed Forces in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Now the situation at the front is somewhat different, but Russia has not been able to achieve serious success.

“And Putin’s reaction the day before the Summit is also a reaction to the readiness of the G7 to allocate 50 billion dollars for Russian assets, and the recognition of almost half a trillion dollars in damages caused to Ukraine. And this is the case when the statement of the Group of Seven weighs more than the communique of the Peace Summit.” – believes Yevhen Magda.

Bulgaria was represented at the World Summit by the Prime Minister of the country, Dimitr Glavchev.

Member of the Bulgarian geopolitical community of countries participating in the summit, Bulgarian analyst, head of the Caspian-Black Sea Research Foundation Plamen Dimitrov notes that the attempts of Moscow and Beijing to make the summit as less representative as possible met with relative failure, as the leaders of countries not only of the “collective West” but also of the “global South” came to the Swiss canton of Nidwalden, including Chile, Argentina, Ghana, Qatar and a number of others .

“It is not China, which is the main economic partner of Russia, but representatives of some countries that were not seen before came to support Ukraine. This is most likely a success for Ukrainian diplomacy, but it could be better.”, – believes the Bulgarian expert.

Some experts spoke about the necessity of Putin’s presence at the summit, citing the fact that the leadership of the Third Reich was not invited to the Yalta Conference in 1945.

“Yes, it is,” agrees Plamen Dimitrov, emphasizing:

“But there is one big difference: in 1945, Germany was already defeated, and now the forces of the Ukrainian and Russian sides are approximately equal. There are two paths to peace: the first is the military defeat of Russia, the second is negotiations. And since after two years there is no military defeat, some countries think that it is necessary to negotiate. But I don’t see a common basis for such negotiations.”

The Bulgarian analyst calls Putin’s statement on the conditions for Russia’s cessation of hostilities in Ukraine an “ultimatum.” And he adds that Ukraine, in turn, has no intention of giving up part of its territory.

“I think that now the negotiations are on secondary issues. And now food security, nuclear security in connection with the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, exchange of prisoners were discussed in Switzerland. But such issues as territorial demarcations, future membership of Ukraine in NATO, payment of reparations by Russia were not discussed at all. Because the situation at the front is such that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to back down from their demands.”Dimitrov notes.

The expert believes that even if a Russian delegation will be present at the next Peace Summit, the main provisions of Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s Peace Plan should still be discussed early due to the intransigence of the parties’ positions and the exemplary equality of military forces. In his opinion, the volume of further Western military aid to Ukraine will depend on the state of affairs at the front.

“At least this year, the aid will be enough for Ukraine to maintain the current front line. But most likely, this is a long game. And I do not expect that there will be any noticeable changes on the front until the end of the year. However, Russia failed to achieve strategic breakthroughs, despite the occupation of a number of small Ukrainian villages.” – says a member of the Bulgarian geopolitical community.

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Slovakia was represented at the summit by the Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Juraj Blanar, as the country’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has not yet returned to work after being wounded, and the country’s President Robert Pellegrini officially took office only on the eve of the summit.

After the election victory of these two politicians, there were fears that Slovakia, like Hungary, would turn more towards Moscow rather than Brussels, but both countries supported the outcome document of the Swiss Peace Summit.

Analyst of the Slovak Foreign Policy Society Oleksandr Duleba noted that there is nothing in this communique that would contradict the official position of the Slovak Republic.

“The same Minister Blanar says that we support the territorial integrity of Ukraine, that Russia has violated international law. Slovakia’s position has changed only in the fact that officially we do not provide military support, but in reality we provide it”Duleba noted.

According to the expert, it is important for Ukraine that the countries that came to the summit approved the text of the final declaration in the vast majority. Of the 160 countries that received an invitation to come to Bürgenstock, 92 took advantage of it. The draft communiqué was known in advance, and only “cosmetic” changes were made to it during the days of the summit.

The Swiss World Summit evaluates Dulib as a success of Ukrainian diplomacy.

“There were not only countries that unequivocally support Ukraine – this is the Rammstein group, which after Argentina joined it, there were 55 – but also countries from Africa, Latin America and Asia. This is a signal that most countries of the world have taken into account the Ukrainian perspective of resolving this military conflict and the Ukrainian concept of peace”, says the analyst.

He draws attention to a number of important theses of the document. The first: a just world based on international law, the UN Charter and territorial integrity within the internationally recognized borders of 1991. And those who attended this summit actually subscribed to this provision. Duleba believes that other countries of the world could agree with this if Russia participated in the summit.

The second: the clause on nuclear safety stipulates that Ukraine must control all nuclear power plants on its territory, including the Zaporizhzhia NPP. As for food security, this means that merchant ships of all countries should have unhindered access to all ports of the Black and Azov Seas.

“And the third point, which cannot be disagreed with, is the exchange of all prisoners from both sides, and most importantly, the return of stolen children from Russia to Ukraine. After all, there is a decision of the International Criminal Court that Putin and Russia’s children’s ombudsman Lvov-Belov are just international criminals… The most important thing for Ukraine is that many countries support its position on achieving peace on the basis of international law. That is, – restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine within the framework of 1991”, – summarizes Oleksandr Duleba.

 

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