The catastrophic demographic situation in Ukraine has long gone beyond statistical charts. It is not only about low birth rates or high death rates, but about the survival of the nation as such. Today, Ukraine has the lowest demographic indicators in Europe, and according to the data of the US CIA for 2024, it topped the ranking of mortality in the whole world and took the last place in terms of birth rate. However, these indicators are only the consequences of much deeper processes. About how such dynamics threaten the country and how to stop depopulation, ponders honored doctor of Ukraine, professor of the Military Medical Academy Olga Bogomolets.
She draws attention to an important detail: the increase in mortality is not the main cause of the situation. On the contrary, in absolute numbers last year, the least number of people died in Ukraine during the entire period of independence. However, statistics do not reflect the full picture. The decrease in the number of the population is due to large-scale emigration, as well as the fact that a large part of Ukrainians is in the occupied territories. The data is incomplete, but even with what is available, it is clear that we are in a deep demographic hole.
“What will happen to our nation in 50 years? In 100 years? Who will inhabit the largest country in Europe – Ukrainians or refugees from other countries? These statistical data and their meaning should be understood by every Ukrainian today and draw conclusions.
Last year, according to the State Statistics Service, the death rate in Ukraine almost tripled the birth rate. 495.1 thousand Ukrainians died, and only 176.1 thousand were born.
In September 2024, the US CIA published a report in which Ukraine ranked first in the world in terms of mortality and, at the same time, last in the birth rate.
However, it is not a sharp increase in mortality per se. On the contrary, in absolute terms last year, the least number of people died in Ukraine in all the years of independence. Instead, there are indications of a decrease in the number of the population due to emigration; besides, a significant part of our citizens are under occupation. Therefore, the given statistics are incomplete. In relative terms, 13-14% of deaths per 1,000 people is a little less than in a calm 2012 and much less than in a pandemic 2021.
Statistics of the current great war and the impact of its consequences on the birth-death ratio we cannot yet provide, as there are no published data. – emphasized the doctor.
Professor Bogomolets emphasizes: the main problem is not mortality, but lack of birth. And the shortest life expectancy among European countries only exacerbates the crisis. She analyzes graphs, according to which the last year when more births than deaths in Ukraine was in 1990. Then there was a sharp decline until 2002. During that period, the birth rate began to rise, and this trend continued until 2012. What were those years? They coincided with economic growth and relative stability. People felt more confident, felt a sense of perspective, and then the desire to create families and give birth to children appeared.
However, since 2014, Bogomolets emphasizes, everything has changed again. Russian aggression, first in Crimea and Donbas, and now in the form of a full-scale war, has led to a new wave of demographic decline. She reminds: the aggressor is responsible not only for thousands of dead, maimed, destroyed destinies, destroyed cities – but also for millions of unborn Ukrainians. It is in this that she sees the real genocide, which cannot be forgiven.
At the same time, Bogomolets asks: what should we do so that Ukraine does not become empty? After all, a land like ours will not remain empty – it attracts. If there are no Ukrainians, there will be others. And this is a risk for the loss of national identity.
She turns to the example of Israel, a nation that has survived millennia of dispersion, but has preserved itself through language, culture, and tradition. Thanks to this, the Jews were able to revive their own state. She considers the approach to national identity through the maternal line to be particularly valuable. It was Jewishness, transmitted through a woman, that became the basis for the long-term preservation of the nation. Every child born to a Jew was considered a Jew, and today people with Jewish roots have the opportunity to return to the land of their ancestors.
According to Bogomolets, this experience should become a reference point for Ukraine as well. In a situation where millions of Ukrainians went abroad because of the war and many of them are not going to return, the task is to create such conditions that will motivate repatriation. However, she warns: this will not happen if Ukraine remains as it is now. That is why he considers overcoming corruption to be a priority task. And not just as a phenomenon, but as a mental system.
The professor is convinced that after the war, Ukraine will get a chance — there will be recovery and economic growth. But will we use it?
“The war will definitely end. There will be both recovery and economic growth. Our task is not to lose this opportunity. To create conditions for investments. To fight corruption, to restore respect for laws and to make society fair. To fight back against populism.
And then, I am convinced, in a few years, Ukraine will become a place where you will want to create families and give birth to children, where you will want to repatriate, where you will simply want to be happy.” – summarizes Olga Bogomolets.
