As of January 29, 2025, natural gas reserves in Ukraine have decreased to approximately 13% of storage capacity, approaching the critical threshold. This situation is complicated by the termination of the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine, which ended January 1, 2025, after the expiration of the transit agreement. In response to these challenges, Ukraine began studying alternative gas supply routes. Discussions are underway regarding the potential transit of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine expressed readiness to transport natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe in order to mitigate the consequences of the stopped transit of Russian gas. Given current storage levels and the ongoing winter season, it is imperative for Ukraine to accelerate natural gas imports to ensure sufficient supply for domestic consumption and maintain energy security.
The gas level in the storages has fallen to a critical level
According to Serhii Makogon, ex-head of the Ukrainian gas transportation system operator, the volume of gas in Ukrainian underground storages is approaching the critical mark of 10%. He sounds the alarm and calls for an urgent start to import large volumes of gas to meet his needs. “The slogan of the leaders of Naftogaz and the Ministry of Energy that “we do not need imports and we will go through the winter without them” can have very serious consequences.” respects Sergey Makogon.
Currently, Ukraine consumes an average of 110 million m³ of gas per day. Of this amount, 52 million m³ is provided by production, but the rest – 58 million m³ – must be provided by underground gas storages or imports. If frost hits, consumption may increase to 140-150 million m³ per day, and storage facilities will not be able to produce even 100 million m³. And then we will simply have nowhere to go – importing gas will become absolutely necessary, and it will cost us extremely dearly. Of course, there will be pressure and accusations against the PSG operator, they say, they pumped out everything they could, even violating the design restrictions. But this can lead to serious damage to the storage itself. And everyone will have to pay for the indolence of some.
Serhii Makogon believes that Naftogaz has already realized that there is a critical shortage of gas in PSG, and it will start importing gas from February. However, the price will be completely different. If in the summer we could buy gas for $300-350 per thousand cubic meters, now we have to pay $500-550. At the same time, Naftogaz spent more than 13 billion hryvnias on the purchase of gas from private producers, but this was not enough to replenish underground storage facilities. And these funds, if they were directed to imports, could provide us with 800-900 million m³ of gas, which would now become critically important for meeting the country’s needs.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Back in October, Serhii Makogon warned about the risk of a gas crisis in winter. According to his calculations, the real volume of active gas in underground storages at that time was about 7.75 billion cubic meters, although it was officially declared about 12.9 billion cubic meters. m. This difference is explained by the inclusion of buffer gas and non-resident reserves that may be exported.
Makogon emphasized that this resource is barely enough for the heating season, especially given the growth in consumption due to active gas generation. According to his forecasts at the time, the country could leave the season with almost empty storage facilities.
The selection of gas depends on the storage capacity
What does this graph show? Dependence of the maximum possible daily gas extraction (in millions of cubic meters per day) on the level of gas storage capacity (%).
Infographic: IA “FACT”
What can we see? At full filling (100%) of the storages, the maximum daily withdrawal is 260 million cubic meters. m. As the gas level in the storages decreases, the selection gradually decreases. For example, with 50% reserves, the selection is 190 million cubic meters. m, and at 20% – 95 million cubic meters. m. With critically low reserves (about 10%), the possible selection drops significantly and amounts to only 60 million cubic meters. m per day. When the reserves are exhausted (0%), the daily withdrawal is 0 million cubic meters. m. It is quite obvious that the gas cannot be extracted from the storages.
The graph confirms the importance of maintaining a sufficient level of gas reserves, especially in the winter period, when consumption increases sharply. If the level of reserves decreases to 10-20%, the gas transportation system loses the ability to respond flexibly to the needs of consumers, which can lead to an energy crisis.
Joint decisions with Moldova
The other day, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to transport natural gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. This initiative was a response to the energy crisis, which worsened after the cessation of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and Moldova.
Zelenskyi made this statement after meeting with the President of Moldova Maia Sandu in Kyiv. During the negotiations, ways to ensure the energy stability of the neighboring country were discussed. The President of Ukraine emphasized the importance of quick decision-making and offered specific ways of supporting Moldova. Zelenskyi also made it clear that Ukraine will not extend the current contract for the transit of Russian gas. At the same time, Kyiv offers alternative delivery routes through Slovakia and other countries.
Negotiations with Azerbaijan
The President recalled his recent meeting with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, during the World Economic Forum in Davos. The leaders discussed the possibilities of cooperation in the field of gas supply to Europe, which will contribute to strengthening the energy partnership between the countries.
Separately, Zelenskyi expressed his readiness to help Moldova in the matter of energy supply of the Transnistria region. Ukraine is ready to send its specialists to adapt the local thermal power plant to another type of fuel and ensure the supply of coal.
“If we provide them coal at low prices or even for free, we can get electricity in return. It’s fair: we give them coal, they get electricity for themselves and for the whole of Moldova, and we get electricity for Ukraine“, Zelensky emphasized.
Zelensky’s statement about Azerbaijani gas: are these not old schemes under a new sauce?
At the same time, the former head of the Ukrainian gas transportation system operator, Serhiy Makogon, wonders about the origin of Azerbaijani gas. He is critical of Zelenskyi’s gas statements.
Despite the hope that the issue of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is closed, President Zelenskyy again spoke about the supply of gas from Azerbaijan. However, this idea raises serious doubts, since Azerbaijan already supplies all the possible volume of gas to the EU and Turkey through the TANAP gas pipeline, built specifically for this purpose. Its current capacity is 16 billion m³ and can be quickly doubled without the need to lay new pipes. It makes no sense for Azerbaijan to choose transit through Russia, which can cut off supplies at any moment. Russia is also not interested in helping its competitor enter the European market — unless it is Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani gas.
This issue calls into question the consistency of Ukrainian policy. A clear rejection of such schemes should remain the unchanged position of Ukraine.
So, the described situation demonstrates the large-scale energy crisis that Ukraine faced after the cessation of Russian gas transit. The idea of the transit of Azerbaijani gas raises doubts. Azerbaijan is believed to be already using the full capacity of its gas pipelines for exports to Turkey and the EU.
