The time C is approaching – December 31, 2024, when the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine will stop. This is an important stage in the redistribution of energy flows in Europe, which will force EU countries to completely reorient their strategies for meeting energy needs. The European Union is actively working to reduce dependence on Russian energy carriers, promoting the development of alternative routes and sources of energy. At the same time, such states as Slovakia and Hungary retain their interest in preserving the supply of Russian gas.
Hungary has no intention of overpaying for gas due to the geopolitical context
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that his government leads active negotiations regarding the provision of gas supplies for the next year, including transit through the territory of Ukraine. According to him, discussions at the international level regarding gas supply in 2025 are extremely intense. At the same time, the negotiations are complicated by the political statements of the Ukrainian side, calls to stop gas transit from the East to the West, and offers of supplies at higher prices. Fico assures that Slovakia will not agree to receive gas only from Western sources, because, in his opinion, there is no reason to overpay for fuel due to the geopolitical context.
Slovakia is dependent on natural gas imports, a large part of which traditionally comes from Russia via Ukraine. Transit through Ukrainian territory is critically important for the country’s energy security. However, Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed approaches to energy policy, including calls from the EU to reduce dependence on Russian fuel. In addition, Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized the need to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas due to the risks associated with war. Kyiv also called on EU countries to more actively switch to alternative energy sources.
Fico, as is known, stands out among European politicians for his skeptical attitude towards anti-Russian sanctions and support for Ukraine. His latest statements may signal a desire to maintain access to cheaper Russian gas, even if it conflicts with the European Union’s overall energy security goals.
Recent years have shown that rising energy prices have become a politically sensitive issue in Europe. So the Slovak government is trying to ease the economic pressure on businesses and the population by avoiding expensive alternative supply routes.
The transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine will stop after the end of the current contract on December 31, 2024. At least, Kyiv stated that it does not plan to extend the validity of this agreement. Accordingly, the Russian company “Gazprom” also has plans for 2025 does not provide supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine.
The European Union prepared in advance for such a development, significantly reducing dependence on Russian gas. The share of Russian gas in the European energy balance decreased to 6%, and the share of gas transported through Ukraine to 4%. The European Commission believes that the termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine from January 1, 2025 will have almost no effect on the region’s energy supply.
Sijarto: “We use the same technologies, we have the same main contractor – Rosatom”
At the same time, EU countries are actively diversifying energy supply sources, increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and developing alternative supply routes. For example, Hungary relies on to the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to receive Russian gas. Peter Siyarto made such a statement at the Istanbul Energy Forum. Therefore, according to him, Hungary became the first country not neighboring Turkey to import gas from there.
Hungary and Turkey cooperate in the field of nuclear energy, and the Russian company Rosatom plays a key role in this process. This cooperation includes not only the construction of nuclear power plants, but also the exchange of experience, technology and personnel training. Both countries are interested in expanding their nuclear capacities to reduce dependence on traditional energy resources (gas, coal) and increase energy independence. Rosatom is the key contractor for the implementation of these projects in both countries. Akkuyu nuclear power plant is being built in Turkey, and Paksh-2 is being built in Hungary. The use of the same technologies simplifies the coordination and exchange of information between the parties. Countries support each other in the training of nuclear engineers and specialists, which is of strategic importance for ensuring the long-term operation of nuclear power plants.
Although Turkey and Russia have conflicting geopolitical interests in Syria, they have shown a willingness to cooperate in strategically important areas such as energy. This approach emphasizes the pragmatism of both countries, which put national interests first, despite ideological or regional contradictions.
Thus, it is expected that from the beginning of 2025, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will stop, and European countries will continue to adapt their energy strategies to new realities, reducing dependence on Russian energy resources and developing alternative sources of supply.
Sever the EU’s fuel ties with Russia
In a recent interview with POLITICO, Dan Jorgensen, the EU’s new energy commissioner, pledged to permanently end dependence on Russian fuel. In recent years, the European Union has tried to reduce its dependence on Russian energy carriers, especially after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, despite significant progress in the diversification of gas and oil supplies, this strategy has encountered serious obstacles. “New steps are needed to change the situation“, said Jorgensen.
The new EU energy commissioner has set himself an ambitious task — to finally sever ties with Russian energy carriers, which for a long time remained one of the Kremlin’s main sources of funding. In his interview, he emphasized that current efforts are no longer enough, and drastic changes in approaches are needed.
Jorgensen emphasized that the situation requires not only political determination, but also large-scale investments in renewable energy, development of infrastructure for the transportation of liquefied natural gas, as well as support of EU member states in reducing fossil fuel consumption.
However, the pace of transition to energy independence from Russia has slowed down. Some EU member states are facing economic challenges caused by high energy prices and geopolitical factors. At the same time, political disagreements between states also affect the pace of implementation of a common energy policy. According to Jorgensen, “new approaches are needed to enable the EU to once again become a leader in the global transition to green energy“. His call can become an impetus for strengthening the European energy security policy, which will not only reduce dependence on Russia, but also promote sustainable development.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
As can be seen on the infographic, the general trend is a steady decline in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine since the early 2000s, which intensified after 2014 and reached minimum values in 2020-2024. The main reasons are geopolitical conflicts, the construction of alternative gas pipelines and changes in EU energy policy.
What alternative sources are switching to in Europe?
For liquefied natural gas (LNG), the suppliers of which are the USA, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Australia, etc. It is convenient in that LNG can be transported by sea, which reduces dependence on pipelines. However, there are also disadvantages. For example, more expensive logistics due to the need for storage and transportation in a liquid state, as well as dependence on the availability of LNG terminal infrastructure. European countries, in particular Germany and Poland, are currently actively building new LNG terminals.
Pipeline gas from other regions is also used. In particular, Norway is one of the main suppliers of pipeline gas to Europe. Gas is also delivered through the Southern Gas Corridor (Trans-Adriatic and Trans-Anatolian gas pipelines). It is planned that the capacity will be expanded for additional deliveries. Gas goes from Algeria to Italy and Spain, and it is planned to increase the volume of transit.
Renewable energy is an important trend of the “European Green Course” aimed at achieving the energy independence of the European Union. One of the key directions of this course is the development of wind and solar energy, the share of which is growing rapidly in the overall energy balance of the EU. Wind and solar power plants are becoming the main sources of clean energy, which allows reducing dependence on fossil energy resources and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
On the other hand, biogas and hydrogen also have significant potential in the transition to renewable energy sources. Biogas can partially replace natural gas, providing a greener source of energy for industry and domestic needs. At the same time, hydrogen, especially green, has great potential as an energy carrier of the future due to its high environmental characteristics and ability to store energy.
However, despite all the advantages, renewable energy faces certain difficulties. The full integration of these energy sources into the EU energy system requires significant investment and time. The infrastructure for production, transportation and storage of energy needs to be modernized, and the process of transition to renewable energy sources requires great financial and technical efforts.
