National Bank made public Financial stress index (FIS) in Ukraine. In the first half of 2025, this figure was at its lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, although it remained volatile.
The biggest impact on the IFS was the currency sub-index, which slightly decreased compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to a reduction in the volume of currency interventions. The main source of volatility of the IFS was the government securities sub-index, which fluctuated due to sharp changes in spreads on sovereign Eurobonds and slightly increased compared to the beginning of the year. The value of the sub-index of household behavior remained almost stable thanks to the maintenance of high rates on household deposits.
The sub-index of corporate securities temporarily rose due to fluctuations in the prices of shares of Ukrainian companies caused by the change in expectations regarding the success of the peace negotiations, but at the beginning of the summer it returned to minimum values.
The banking sub-index remains low, despite a slight decrease in liquidity indicators in the spring. The financial stress index in Ukraine has increased sharply since the Russian invasion in February 2022. As the NBU noted, it remained lower than during the 2008 and 2014-2015 crises.
It will be recalled that in March the IMF presented two scenarios for Ukraine. The baseline scenario assumes the end of the war at the end of 2025, which will allow the Ukrainian economy to grow by 2-3% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.5% in 2026. The negative scenario predicts the continuation of the war until the middle of 2026. In this case, real GDP would decrease by 2% in 2025 and by another 0.5% in 2026.
