The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its consumer price index (CPI) forecast for 2024-2025, raising its expectations compared to the July forecasts.
According to the regulator’s new macroeconomic forecast, the CPI is expected to reach 9.7% in 2024, up from 8.5% previously. For 2025, this figure has also been increased from 6.6% to 6.9%.
The forecast for the core consumer price index has also been downgraded. In 2024, it will rise to 9.1% (previously forecast at 7.1%), and in 2025, to 5.7% instead of the previously expected 4.5%.
These changes indicate that prices for goods and services in Ukraine are growing faster than previously expected.
An important factor in these developments was the rise in food prices driven by lower-than-expected harvests of certain crops, which led to higher prices for raw materials for the food industry. The acceleration in inflation was also driven by higher production costs, in particular electricity and labour, as well as currency fluctuations caused by the hryvnia’s depreciation in previous periods.
At the end of 2026, expectations for headline CPI remain unchanged at 5%, with core CPI projected at 3.1%.
It is also noted that in September 2024, inflation accelerated to 1.5% after 0.6% in August and 0% in July, which amounted to 8.6% in annual terms.
