The National Bank has published an updated forecast for Ukraine’s international reserves. According to the regulator’s assessment, by the end of 2025 the volume of reserves may increase to about 58 billion dollars. This will be the highest record level for the entire time of their recording in official statistics. Such data is contained in the Financial Stability Report published by the NBU on June 17.
In the first five months of 2025, Ukraine received almost 18 billion dollars of external support – these are loans on preferential terms and non-refundable grants. The main part of revenues during the year is expected at the expense of EU funds within the framework of the Ukraine Facility program, as well as payments under the ERA mechanism. If all agreements are fulfilled, the total volume of foreign aid may reach 55 billion dollars by the end of the year.
The NBU report states that for stable financing, it is necessary to fulfill obligations to international partners in a timely manner — in particular, within the framework of the IMF program and the terms of the Ukraine Facility. The eighth review of the IMF program should be completed in June, after which the next tranche is expected.
At the beginning of June, international reserves of Ukraine amounted to 44.5 billion dollars. The current forecast foresees their increase to 58 billion, if the volume of external financing remains at the expected level. Both indicators exceed the so-called composite reserve adequacy criterion defined by the IMF.
The National Bank explains that the accumulation of reserves is necessary in order to have a sufficient supply of currency in the following years. Then international aid will probably be less, and foreign exchange needs will remain.
In the first half of the year, the NBU continued to support the foreign exchange market, covering the foreign currency deficit. Demand grew due to gas purchases, financing of the defense sector and certain periods of increased population activity. At the same time, as the regulator notes, recently the pressure from the retail demand side has decreased somewhat.
