The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the first time presented forecast for the export of grain from Ukraine for the marketing year (MR) 2025/26. According to it, the export of wheat will increase to 16.5 million tons compared to 16 million tons in 2024/25 MR, and corn – to 24 million tons from the previous 22 million tons.
In the marketing year 2025/26 (from July 1, 2025 to July 1, 2026), wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to increase to 16.5 million tons (preliminary forecast – 16 million tons). Corn exports, according to the updated forecast, will increase from 22 million tons to 24 million tons.
At the same time, according to the estimates of the American Ministry, this year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease to 23 million tons from 23.4 million tons last year. Domestic consumption of wheat in 2025/26 MR is expected at the level of 6.6 million tons (last year – 6.7 million tons), with the preservation of transitional balances in the amount of 1.49 million tons.
As for corn, the USDA predicts an increase in the harvest to 30.5 million tons (26.8 million tons in 2024). Domestic consumption will increase to 6.23 million tons (from 5.15 million tons), and transitory balances to 0.6 million tons (from 0.31 million tons).
In general, the harvest of forage crops in 2025 is expected at the level of 37.04 million tons, which is more compared to 33.47 million tons last year. Their exports in FY 2025/26 will be 27.58 million tons, while in FY 2024/25 this figure was 24.48 million tons.
On a global scale, the USDA predicts an increase in wheat harvest to 808.5 million tons (last year – 799.7 million tons) and corn – to 1,265.0 million tons (from 1,221.3 million tons). As for global exports, wheat in FY 2025/26 is estimated to reach 212.99 million tons (in 2024/25 — 206.12 million tons), and corn — 195.81 million tons (compared to 189.35 million tons).
