The definition of winning a war sometimes seems obvious, but this impression is deceptive. Battles are won, but can we say that the war is over? Forcing the enemy’s surrender or total defeat is not always the ultimate goal. Wars like the Korean and Iraqi wars demonstrate the difficulty in establishing clear boundaries of victory. History shows that the true meaning of victory often depends on long-term results, not just military gains. Currently, this problem has also appeared in front of Ukraine, which is fighting for its independence in the war with Russia, where the definition of victory is still not clear-cut.
Political scientist, former dean of the Harvard School named after Kennedy, ex-assistant secretary of defense of the USA, author of the concept of “soft power” Joseph Nye expressed his opinion about the possible victory of Ukraine.
In his opinion, the ending of military conflicts can be different, and each case has its own unique consequences. World War II ended with the Allies in full control of Berlin and Tokyo, as well as the removal of the leadership of Germany and Japan. It was a clear and unequivocal result. However, the Vietnam War, as the expert notes, was a clear defeat for the United States. North Vietnam captured the South, and this led to the unnecessary loss of life of 58 thousand American soldiers. In turn, the expert calls the result of the Korean War a “stalemate”, since the war has not formally ended, and the demilitarized zone still separates the North and the South.
However, according to Nye, such general characteristics can be misleading. He emphasizes that the war in Iraq, although it ended with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime, did not achieve its main goals. The United States did not find weapons of mass destruction to justify the invasion, and was unable to transform Iraq into a stable democracy. Instead, the expert emphasizes that the real winner in this situation was Iran, which became the most influential political force in Iraq. This can be considered a big miscalculation for the United States.
Regarding the Korean War, Joseph Nye emphasizes the difference between the outcomes for South and North Korea. Although the demilitarized zone remains, South Korea has turned into a dynamic democracy with a high level of income — about $35,000 per capita per year. Meanwhile, North Korea remained a dictatorship with an extremely low standard of living of just $1,200 per capita. Food crises regularly occur in the country. This, according to the political scientist, calls into question the very concept of “deadlocked war”, since the result for the two Koreas turned out to be completely different.
Next, he analyzes the war in Ukraine, noting that the definition of victory here depends on military goals and time frames. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian speakers in Crimea and Donbas. Eight years later, it decided to continue this process and tried to destroy Ukraine as an independent state. Russian President Vladimir Putin openly wrote in 2021 that he does not consider Ukraine an independent state, but part of the “great Russian world”. The political scientist believes that Putin intended to seize Kyiv in a few days and change the Ukrainian government, repeating the actions of the Soviet Union in Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968.
However, according to Nye, judging by Putin’s initial goals, it can be argued that Ukraine has already won. Putin failed to achieve his goal. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, rejected all advice to leave the country and create a government in exile. On the contrary, he mobilized Ukrainian society and the army, and the Ukrainians managed to defend the capital and foil Russia’s plan. Moreover, Zelensky successfully used diplomacy, gaining the support of the West, which allowed Ukraine to strengthen its military power. Thus, according to the expert, the invasion of Russia led not only to the strengthening of Ukrainian national identity, but also to the strengthening of NATO, which was joined by Finland and Sweden after a long period of neutrality.
Despite this, Nye emphasizes that Russian forces still control about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Putin has revised his goals and is now demanding that Ukraine recognize the annexation of four eastern regions, even those that Russian forces only partially control. According to the expert, the war has turned into a conflict of attrition, where Putin relies on Russia’s superiority in population and resources. He may be hoping that Ukraine’s will to resist will weaken, as will Western support.
At the same time, according to Joseph Nye, the latest polls show that 26% of Ukrainians are open to a diplomatic settlement, but they are not ready for sham negotiations with an unrepentant Putin. About 86% of Ukrainians believe that Russia will continue to pose a threat, even if a peace agreement is signed. As the expert notes, although both Russia and Ukraine declare readiness for negotiations, their positions remain fundamentally different. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a friend of the Kremlin, tried to mediate, but his efforts failed to change Putin’s position. At the same time, Donald Trump continues to state that he is able to end the war in one day, but the expert emphasizes that this seems unlikely without the complete surrender of Ukraine.
Nye also cites the words of the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, who believes that one should not expect a complete defeat of either side. He predicts that part of the Ukrainian territory will remain occupied by Russia, possibly for years. The expert agrees that if Ukraine defines its goal as preserving independence and strengthening ties with Europe, leaving the issue of the return of territories open for the future, then such a victory is quite possible.
Finally, Nye notes that in order to succeed, Ukraine needs additional aid that will strengthen its negotiating position. Although the achievement of Ukraine’s maximalist goals may be impossible in the near future, the expert believes that the legitimacy of Ukrainian positions will be preserved in the international arena until Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories is recognized. This can be called the “Korean solution”, when the truce and demilitarized zone will be monitored by international peacekeepers. Under this condition, Russia will have to face the intervention of many countries if it decides to resume the attack.
In conclusion, Joseph Nye emphasizes that Ukraine also needs help to rebuild its economy and access to European Union markets. In the short term, the “Korean solution” will not satisfy Ukraine’s maximalist ambitions, but it will allow the situation to be called a victory, as Ukraine will be able to preserve its independence and continue the struggle for its territories in the future.
