The end of the 2024/2025 heating season does not mean that the energy crisis is over. On the contrary, spring is a critically important period for laying the foundations of future energy stability. In the conditions of war, reduced gas production, limited financial resources and destroyed infrastructure, Ukraine does not have the strength to waste time. Government structures, state-owned companies and the market in general should start preparing for the next heating season right now. A key element of this preparation is the filling of underground gas storages — according to a clear schedule, in sufficient volumes and with the involvement of real financing. Otherwise, the country may approach the winter of 2026 not only without a strategic reserve, but also without mechanisms for emergency compensation of the deficit. About this warns energy analyst Volodymyr Omelchenko, who emphasizes that without timely filling of gas storages, Ukraine risks facing an energy crisis as early as October 2026.
According to Omelchenko, the situation requires an urgent response. After an extremely cold beginning of April, the gas storages turned out to be practically empty. Currently, there are less than one billion cubic meters of gas left in underground storage, and up to nine billion need to be stored before the start of the heating season. Of this volume, at least half will have to be imported, as the war has dealt a serious blow to Ukrainian gas production — losses reach 40% of the pre-war potential. Although some capacity has already been restored, it is not enough to cover future demand.
“Within 180 days until mid-October, it is necessary to ensure the filling of the depleted gas storage facilities. The forecasted volume of active gas that should be on the eve of the OZP is up to 9 billion cubic meters (now less than 1 billion cubic meters). Of this, Ukraine will be forced to import about 4.5 billion cubic meters due to record low reserves in storage facilities and the destruction by Russian aggressors of a significant part of gas production capacities (up to 40%). According to Naftogaz of Ukraine, about half of the capacity has already been restored. – the expert believes.
Omelchenko emphasizes that there is no more time for the gradual accumulation of resources. At least 25 million cubic meters of gas must be pumped in daily. To maintain this pace until mid-October, the country will have to spend about 2 billion euros. However, Naftogaz of Ukraine does not have such funds on its own. The EBRD and donors from Norway have already allocated 400 million euros, but this amount is clearly not enough to solve the problem.
The analyst strongly criticizes the current model of gas market functioning. According to him, the situation when “Naftogaz” simultaneously performs the function of the supplier of last hope for the population, sells gas at a domestically low price, and then is forced to import the resource at market rates at a loss for itself has exhausted itself. Financing imports at the expense of the state budget during a war, when all resources should go to defense, is a strategic mistake that leads to defeat, Omelchenko is convinced.
According to the expert, the only realistic scenario for exiting the crisis is the complete liberalization of the gas market. The involvement of European and domestic traders, as well as large industrial consumers, in the purchase and import of gas can provide the necessary impetus. Omelchenko reminds that after the termination of the supply of Russian gas in 2015, the country already found itself in a similar situation, and then it was possible to overcome it precisely because of liberalization. There are currently no other real alternatives.
Omelchenko proposes to change the focus of the operation of the state company: all the extracted gas should be directed exclusively to the needs of the population and the thermal utility, and the deficit should be compensated by purchases from private companies under competitive conditions. Such an approach would make it possible to reduce the financial pressure on the state-owned company and at the same time keep the socially important tariffs at a stable level.
It is equally important, Omelchenko emphasizes, that the import of energy carriers is limited not only by money, but also by technical capabilities. The gas transport infrastructure that connects Ukraine with the EU has a limited capacity, and some of the resources are already reserved by Central European countries for their own needs. Delaying the start of the pumping season can lead to the fact that, even with the availability of funds, there will physically be nowhere to get enough gas.
The energy expert summarizes: in the conditions of a large-scale war, lack of funds and physical limitations of the infrastructure, every day of gas injection is of critical importance. Waiting for an opportune moment or a favorable price means playing with fire. Preparations for the winter of 2026 must begin now, or there will be no winter at all.
“Time does not wait. We do not have time to hope for a more favorable price situation in Europe. After all, the issue is not only about money, but also about the limited capacity of the European interconnectors that connect the gas transport systems of Ukraine and the EU countries, as well as about the own needs of the countries of Central Europe. Every day of the gas injection season is worth its weight in gold.” – emphasized Omelchenko.
