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Research by an independent European think tank Bruegel assesses how much additional troops and weapons Europe needs to defend itself against Russia.

The reality in which Europe finds itself is becoming increasingly harsh: the threat from the Russian Federation is growing, and hope for the United States as the main guarantor of security no longer seems undeniable. Is the European Union able to contain a potential invasion on its own? A new study by the Kiel Institute of World Economics provides answers to this question.

Russia after three years of war: stronger than in 2022

Despite significant losses in the war against Ukraine, the Russian army did not weaken. On the contrary, by mobilizing resources and increasing military production, Moscow has increased its army and improved its equipment.

As of the end of 2024, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine reached approximately 700,000 troops – far more than at the time of the 2022 invasion. Only in 2024, Russia produced and modernized:

• 1,550 tanks (220% more than in 2022);
• 5,700 armored vehicles (150% increase);
• 450 artillery installations;
• 1,800 Lancet kamikaze drones (435% more than in 2022).

Most of this equipment is modernized Soviet-made models, but Russia is also actively developing its own production of drones, significantly reducing its dependence on Iranian suppliers.

Is Europe ready for the challenge?

According to estimates by NATO, Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic states, Russia may be ready to attack one of the EU countries within 3-10 years. And even earlier: in the summer of 2025, large-scale military exercises “West-2025” will be held in Belarus, which will demonstrate Moscow’s ability to conduct large-scale operations even during war.

Experts agree that the main task of Europe remains the support of Ukraine, because the Ukrainian military today is the key factor in deterring a possible Russian attack on the EU. If Ukraine rejects a possible deal between the US and Russia to end the war – for example, because it distrusts Putin’s assurances – Europe must have the resources to supply additional weapons to support the current combat capabilities of the Ukrainian military. Although Ukraine and the EU depend on US strategic resources such as intelligence and satellite communications, alternatives can be found if necessary.

Will Europe be able to offset US military aid?

From a financial point of view, yes. Since the beginning of the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with 64 billion euros in military aid, and European countries with 62 billion euros. In 2024, the share of the United States in the total aid package was 20 billion euros out of 42 billion. This means that EU countries only need to increase spending by 0.12% of GDP to fully replace American support.

At the same time, the main challenge will not be financing, but access to the American military-industrial base. If Ukraine agrees to a peace deal, Russia will likely use the pause to rebuild its forces. This will force Europe to urgently build up its own defense potential.

According to some estimates, about 150,000 European troops may be needed to guarantee the security of Ukraine after the agreement. However, these forces must be ready to react quickly to any potential Russian aggression against the EU.

According to current NATO forecasts (RAND, 2024), in the event of an attack by Russia on one of the countries of the Alliance, the United States can quickly increase the number of its troops in Europe from 100,000 to 300,000, in particular at the expense of armored units, which are best suited for conducting hostilities in Eastern Europe.

What does Europe need for self-defense?

If the US reduces its presence in Europe, EU countries should:

• Increase the army by at least 500,000 troops;
• Increase the production of tanks, artillery and drones;
• Improve the system of military coordination.

One of the biggest problems of Europe is the fragmentation of military structures. In the US, the 300,000-strong military operates in large, cohesive corps under a single command. In Europe, 1.47 million soldiers are scattered among 29 armies with different management systems.

To compensate for a potential US withdrawal, Europe must either increase the size of its army by 300,000 or find an effective military coordination mechanism.

Defense Industry: Is Europe Ready to Increase Production?

Europe needs to quickly increase the production of military equipment. Minimum requirements:

• 1,400 tanks;
• 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles;
• 700 artillery installations;
• 1 million shells (for 90 days of active hostilities);
• 2,000 long-range drones annually.

Joint procurement can significantly reduce costs. For example, 6,000 Helsing drones ordered for Ukraine will help the EU achieve technological parity with Russia.

In addition, the defense industry will need at least 300,000 new workers to produce equipment and ammunition.

Defense Financing: Who Will Pay for Security?

In order for Europe to effectively counter the Russian threat, its defense budget must increase by 250 billion euros per year, which will raise military spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Large purchases will significantly reduce the cost of equipment. For example, Leopard II tanks, which Germany currently buys for 28 million euros per unit, can become significantly cheaper with large-scale orders.

Germany should make the biggest contribution to the new European defense strategy. It is expected to allocate at least 125 billion euros annually, increasing its military budget to 3.5% of GDP.

You need to act now

Europe has two options: either to build up its own armed forces and production, or to remain dependent on the US – with the risk of being left without support at a critical moment.

The choice must be made immediately. Procrastination can cost the entire continent dearly.