Georgia’s EU accession on hold: how the government is undermining the country’s European future

On 17 October, the European Council summit announced that Georgia’s accession process to the EU had been suspended. The document published on the Council’s website states that the EU continues to support the Georgian people, but expresses concern about the actions of the Georgian government, which contradict the values of the European Union. The European Council calls on Georgia to carry out democratic reforms and promises to monitor the situation.

In addition, the European Council expects that the upcoming parliamentary elections in the country will be free and fair, in line with international standards, with unimpeded access for international and national observers.

The document also stresses the need to protect free and independent media, reaffirming the EU’s unwavering support for Georgia’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.

‘This underlines the European Union’s continued commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict and to a policy of non-recognition and engagement,’ the conclusions on Georgia read.

In July this year, EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Gerczynski said that the European Union had already suspended Georgia’s accession process. This was mainly due to a law on foreign influence, known as the law on foreign agents, which resembles a similar Russian law. Earlier it was reported that the European Union may suspend the visa-free regime for Georgia. The EU said that such a move would be a response to the Georgian government’s anti-democratic actions and the rise of anti-Western rhetoric.

It all started so promisingly

In December 2023, Georgians rejoiced: after years of waiting and initial rejection, their country had finally received the official status of a candidate for accession to the European Union. However, seven months later, the process came to a halt. On 9 July, EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Gerczynski said: ‘Georgia’s accession process to the EU has now been suspended’.

This decision was made at the European Council on 27-28 June and is linked to the adoption of the controversial law on ‘foreign influence’ in June. The law, copied from a 2012 Russian law, aims to restrict independent media and civil society. It reflects a geopolitical shift in which Georgia, despite its historical enmity with Russia, is turning away from Europe and closer to Russia. Although thousands of people protested against the law, their efforts were in vain.

Commenting on the European Council’s decision, Gerchinsky wrote that it “was made because of illiberal actions and illiberal legislation that was adopted here in Georgia. So, the problem and solutions should be sought not in Brussels, Washington or Kyiv, but here in Georgia. This is the result of the actions, decisions and statements made by Georgian officials, the Georgian parliament and the government.”

Between democracy and autocracy

Until recently, Georgia was considered in the West to be an example of a relatively stable post-Soviet democracy. For example, in the Atlantic Council’s report ‘Atlas 2024: Freedom and Prosperity in the World’, Georgia was ranked as a free country in terms of the health of democratic institutions. It was ranked ahead of such countries as Poland and Ukraine. Until recently, Georgia’s high ranking was commonplace and unquestioned. In the preface to the 2020 edition of Georgia: From Autocracy to Democracy, it was noted that Georgia had become the strongest and most stable democracy in the post-Soviet space after the Baltic republics.

Recently, however, in the weeks leading up to the 26 October parliamentary elections, there have been growing concerns that the country may be on the brink of autocracy. Critics argue that the ruling Georgian Dream party is leading Georgia towards dependence on Moscow by introducing a Putin-style regime. For example, a new requirement is being introduced for non-governmental organisations to register as entities ‘acting in the interests of a foreign state’ if more than 20% of their funding comes from abroad.

Eka Gigauri, Head of Transparency International Georgia, speaking before the US Senate, said: ‘The authorities continue to implement repressive legislation that leads to a Russian style of governance. For every Georgian citizen, the upcoming elections are in fact a referendum on the choice between a democratic, prosperous European future and the poverty of a Russian satellite.” As a result, the US and EU began to impose sanctions on Georgia.

In 2022, Georgia refused to transfer Soviet weapons to Ukraine

The growing tension between the Georgian government and the West should also be seen in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This invasion has put pressure on Georgia from the West. It had to take a more decisive stance against Russia, in particular by imposing sanctions that would match those of the EU and the US. The West also urged Georgia to hand over some of its Soviet weapons to Ukraine, as this could be done more quickly than supplying Western weapons.

Although the Georgian Dream government condemned the invasion and voted in the UN to condemn it, the country did not join some of the tougher measures proposed by the EU and the US. Georgia has not fully joined the EU’s economic sanctions and has rejected calls for arms supplies to Ukraine. In June 2022, the European Parliament called for personal sanctions against Ivanishvili for promoting ‘ambiguous relations with Russia’.

Most Western media and commentators sided with the Georgian opposition, portraying the Georgian Dream government as agents of Moscow. The US, EU and most Western governments have shown open hostility to the ruling party’s government. This hostility is likely to increase significantly if new opposition protests lead to even greater repression and de facto dictatorship. At the same time, facing growing hostility from the West, the Georgian Dream may decide to move closer to Russia despite the risks, turning Western fears of Georgia’s rapprochement with Moscow into a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’.

Multi-vector policy forever

So far, it has not come to that. Before the sharp deterioration in relations with the West due to the conflict in Ukraine, the US and EU supported the Georgian government’s efforts to establish reasonable working relationships with various partners, combining partnership with the US and EU with improved relations with Russia. Over the years, this ‘multi-vector’ policy has yielded results. Under the Georgian Dream, Georgia was able to stabilise relations with Russia, despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties after the 2008 conflict, while maintaining close ties with the United States. When the Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, it sought to improve economic relations with Russia, and the share of Georgian exports to Russia increased from 2% to 15% of total exports by 2017. At the same time, a 2018 report by the Congressional Research Service still identified Georgia as ‘one of the closest U.S. partners among post-Soviet states’.

Saakashvili’s reaction

Speaking to Radio Liberty, former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said that the ruling Georgian Dream party will not be able to obtain a constitutional or even a simple majority in the new parliament after the October elections. He noted that if the party tries to annul the election results and hold on to power by force, it will lead to the loss of Georgia’s independence.

Saakashvili also warned of possible provocations before and after the elections, saying that Russian-style compromising recordings or even more serious incidents could appear.

Thus, Georgia is trying to become part of what CIA Director William Burns called a ‘balancing strategy’ or ‘multi-vector’ foreign policy that maintains relations with different countries according to national interests. Mongolia and several former Soviet states in Central Asia are following a similar approach: they do not want to break relations with the West, but they are also determined to avoid steps towards hostility with Russia or China.

The Left Bank recently reported that the EU has suspended meetings with representatives of the Georgian government, saying: Georgia will not be able to join the EU if the political opposition is banned in the country.

The EU is clearly signalling that Georgia’s future in the European Union depends on its adherence to democratic principles, including ensuring freedom of political opposition. The suspension of meetings with the Georgian government is a serious warning that a breach of these principles could permanently close the country’s path to EU integration. It underscores the importance of democratic reforms and the protection of the rule of law for the continuation of the European course.