Political

Historical lessons and mobilization: the “butterfly effect”

Political decisions of governments or sometimes simple events in the future can have significant consequences not only for one, but also for other countries. This is especially noticeable in the geopolitical space, when states have close economic, political and social relationships. Moreover, even the action of one person can lead to both prosperous and large-scale catastrophic events in society.

This phenomenon is called the “butterfly effect”, made famous by Ray Bradbury’s story “And there was thunder”, although it appeared in earlier fantasy works by other writers. This effect was successfully demonstrated in the cult film of the 80s “Back to the Future”, and it was also described by scientists Henri Poincaré and Edward Lawrence. At one time, the American mathematician and meteorologist, one of the creators of chaos theory, Lawrence wrote:

“A butterfly flapping its wings in Iowa could trigger an avalanche of effects that could peak during Indonesia’s rainy season.”

Of course, butterflies cannot cause a hurricane with their wings, but seemingly insignificant events can be real catalysts for a number of unpredictable phenomena.

The British writer and cosmologist John Gribbin wrote about this in his book “Deep Simplicity: Chaos, Complexity and the Origin of Life”:

“The behavior of some systems depends very much on the initial conditions, so that small differences at the starting point lead to huge changes in the end.”

So, in this world, everything is closely interconnected, has cause-and-effect relationships, and often coincidences are not random at all. And this applies not only to global processes, but also to personal relationships between people. Our life is a chain of events that follow one after the other, determining our future. Every decision made by a person later affects the state of affairs and changes the trajectory of the entire life. This can be considered a series of coincidences, but many scientists strive to find certain patterns that could be used to calculate the further course of things. That is, to take control of fate. It is interesting to imagine how much easier our lives would become if there was a certain algorithm capable of predicting the consequences of our actions and decisions.

Regarding historical events in this sense, it is known that “history does not tolerate the conditional way”, it does not recognize the word “if”. However, history knows many examples of the “butterfly effect”, in which a minor event affected a number of phenomena, and they, in turn, affected the fate of entire states, changing the world. So, in the era of the Crusades, at the beginning of 1189, a huge army of German crusaders crossed the Salef River, which is now located in the territory of modern Turkey. The legendary emperor Frederick Barbarossa, who led the army, entered the water on a horse, but suddenly the animal turned upside down. The emperor, unable to hold on to the saddle, fell into the river and died. Having lost their commander, the German crusaders immediately returned home, as a result of which the third crusade, which had a great chance of victory over the Saracens, suffered a complete collapse. As a result, Jerusalem, through which the campaign was carried out, remained under the influence of Muslims for several more centuries. That is, everything happened because of the horse.

If, during the First World War, the British soldier Henry Tandy had not pardoned, but had killed another soldier – the young Adolf Hitler, there would not have been the Second World War and the Holocaust with millions of victims. In addition, if Hitler had become an artist in the early 1900s, would not have failed the entrance exams to the Vienna Academy of Arts, there would not be a bloody dictator that the whole world knows. One can only imagine how different world history would have been if Hitler had painted pictures instead of committing genocide.

There is a saying that the First World War started with a principle. It was Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian student, who in 1914 shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Princip was a member of the Black Hand, an underground group that planned to assassinate the Archduke. When the assassination attempt ended unsuccessfully, he went to have lunch in a cafe. At the same time, as fate would have it, Ferdinand’s cortege stopped right next to this cafe, and it was this that gave the Princip the opportunity to make an absolutely accurate shot. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand triggered the start of World War I and a series of global events that followed. Within a month, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, two days later Germany declared war on Russia, then German troops invaded Luxembourg, and later the whole of Europe, China, Japan, the USA and Australia were drawn into the First World War.

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On April 22, 1992, in the city of Guadalajara (the second largest after Mexico), there were 4 series of explosions that lasted 4 hours and 14 minutes. At that time, 252 people died, more than 1,440 were injured, 15,000 people were left homeless, 450 enterprises were destroyed, and the damage amounted to between 300 million and 1 billion US dollars. The cause of the explosions was a temporary employee hired in 1980. He laid sewer pipes in one of the trenches with the gasoline line, the former being galvanized and the latter steel. This combination led to corrosion and leaking gasoline, which caused a series of explosions that practically destroyed the city. Moreover, a few days before the disaster, people complained about the smell of gasoline, but the authorities denied the danger of an explosion on the radio.

However, let’s leave history and give examples of modern world events. Thus, Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) not only changed its political landscape, but also affected the political dynamics in Europe and the world as a whole.

Peaceful protests on the Maidan in 2014 were initially perceived as minor changes in the political landscape of Ukraine, but later led to global consequences. They completely changed the political situation and regime in the state, and also provoked the reaction of the international community, which in turn led to sanctions against the Russian Federation and changes in the political balance in Europe. Ukraine’s decision to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union, which at first glance might seem insignificant, led to global consequences.

In 2020, the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Japan, Serhii Korsunsky, noted that the events taking place on the border of our country with the Russian Federation are a “butterfly effect”, because they can affect phenomena in other parts of the world, including the Japanese islands, although they are located in thousands of kilometers from the place of events. 

The largest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War, which is currently taking place on the territory of Ukraine, has caused a global shock in the world. It marked the abrupt end of the thirty-year period of globalization and the system of international cooperation, and also led to the emergence of the most acute security crisis. The consequences of these military actions directly affect the global trends of the entire world community, encourage the creation of completely different foundations of the European order and the renewal of the world security architecture.

The war changed the living conditions of the entire Ukrainian society, led to significant problems that had never existed before. One of them is the mobilization of conscripts, as well as the consequences that flow from it. On April 23, an event took place that shocked Ukrainians abroad – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine issued an order to suspend the provision of consular services to all men aged 18 to 60. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that this decision was made in response to the new law on strengthening mobilization, which applies to men who are currently abroad. Such a decision caused considerable indignation, as well as crazy queues at the passport desks. Now the tension is growing, and along with it there is a lack of understanding – what to do next?

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According to the information of the Mobilization Reserve project, published on April 24, Currently, there are 865,000 Ukrainian men abroad, of which approximately 688,000 are of working age:

  • 812 thousand men aged 18 to 64 received temporary protection in EU countries;
  • 22 thousand adult men are refugees in Moldova;
  • 31,000 men aged 18–64 are in the United Kingdom under programs for Ukrainians.

These statistics show the situation as of October 2023, with the only country that has not provided it being Hungary. However, there is a high degree of probability that the number of men currently abroad is much higher.

What are the consequences of this event according to the concept of the “butterfly effect”?

Undoubtedly, our state is in a military conflict with the Russian Federation, so it must be defended. However, the methods of mobilization, as well as the updating of data and registration of all conscripts, must be balanced and considered, taking into account the far-reaching consequences. The authorities should take into account that citizens of Ukraine have not only legally defined duties, but also rights. From a legal point of view, this decision is, at a minimum, discrimination based on age and an illegal restriction of citizens’ rights. In order for there to be no uncertainty, it is necessary to clearly define them at the legislative level for the period of hostilities and make appropriate changes to the Constitution.

Such actions as the suspension of consular services will not force men to fight, but on the contrary, will further distance them from the desire to return to Ukraine and will become an incentive to change citizenship. All the more, they feel injustice, observing the scandalous existence of the so-called “Monaco battalion”, whose representatives have received new passports and feel quite at ease.

It should be taken into account that the suspension of consular services also affected those men who left Ukraine in the 1990s and 2000s and had already put down roots abroad long before the hostilities. In most cases, people left the Motherland forcibly in order to feed their families. It was then that the state needed to solve the problem of labor migration and “brain drain” by applying motivational measures to leave our citizens at home.

Violation of the rights of Ukrainians who have gone abroad, with a high degree of probability, can further intensify the demographic crisis in the country. According to The Wall Street Journal, the birth rate in Ukraine until February 2022 it was the lowest in Europe. Ukrainian and world demographers predict that this indicator will eventually become the lowest in the world. According to forecasts of researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation by 2050 Ukraine will be among the ten countries with the lowest total fertility rate – it will be 1.01.

The war in Ukraine led to an even greater crisis in the birth and death rates. As informs Opendatabot with reference to the data of the Ministry of Justice in 2023, 187,387 children were born in the country, which is almost a third less than before the Russian invasion of our territory.

Therefore, the suspension of consular services to all men aged 18 to 60, as well as other similar ill-advised actions, may have critical global consequences for Ukraine. We can lose a whole generation of Ukrainians and intensify the demographic crisis, which is also the real war, only without weapons. This is the “butterfly effect” in modern realities.

As a rule, cause-and-effect relationships between events are much deeper than they appear at first glance. In order to correctly understand the processes taking place and make balanced decisions, it is necessary to know many seemingly superfluous details, which, as it turns out later, are not superfluous at all. At the same time, one should not forget that behind any game there is always a secret conductor…

Oksana Ishchenko

 

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