Mobilization without losses: the risks of lowering the conscription age in Ukraine
Ukraine has faced a serious demographic problem due to the full-scale invasion of Russia, which has led to a significant reduction in the number of men in their 20s and 30s.
About this write The New York Times.
“Currently, the share of men aged 20 to 30 in Ukraine is the lowest in the country’s history“, the article says.
This is due to several factors:
- Low birth rate in the 1990s: A sharp decline in the birth rate in the 1990s meant that Ukraine now simply has fewer young people.
- War: The war resulted in the death and injury of tens of thousands of men and the displacement of millions of people, including men of draft age.
- Emigration of women: Because of the war, many women with children left abroad, which also negatively affects the demographic situation.
This crisis has serious consequences for Ukraine, both in the short term and in the long term.
In the short term:
- Lack of personnel in the army: Ukraine is experiencing an acute shortage of personnel in the army, which makes it difficult for it to defend against Russian troops.
- Economic problems: A decrease in the number of working population can negatively affect the country’s economy.
In the long term:
- Aging population: Ukraine risks becoming one of the oldest countries in Europe, which will lead to an increase in the burden on the social security system and other problems.
- Declining birth rate: A low number of young people can lead to a further decline in the birth rate of a country.
From 2021 to 2023, the number of newborns in Ukraine almost halved.
“Mr. Zelenskyi’s decision to draft men starting at age 25 risks further reducing this small generation of Ukrainians. And many of the limited pool of 25- and 26-year-old men — about 467,000, according to government estimates for 2022 — are already serving in the army, living in the occupied territories or outside Ukraine. Others have jobs or disabilities that exempt them from the draft“, the article says.