In 2024, the global trade turnover set a new record, reaching the mark of 33 trillion US dollars, which is 3.7% more than in 2023. Such data are given in the annual report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The main boost came from the services sector, which posted an impressive 9% increase, or about $700 billion, more than half of the total increase. Trade in goods also increased, albeit more moderately – by 2% (about 500 billion dollars).
Interestingly, it was developing economies that performed better: their combined exports and imports increased by 4%, while developed countries recorded a decrease of 2%. This indicates a shift in global trade flows in favor of a new economic powerhouse.
At the same time, imbalances in trade are deepening. In particular, the US imported goods from China for $355 billion more than it exported there. The deficit in trade with the European Union amounted to $241 billion, while China, on the contrary, showed the largest surplus since 2022.
At the beginning of 2025, the overall level of trade remained relatively stable, but UNCTAD experts warn that the threat of geo-economic tensions, increased protectionism and the growth of trade conflicts could destroy positive trends.
Despite the fact that two-thirds of international trade takes place without tariffs, the report emphasizes that any increase in tariffs could seriously hit exporters, especially from developing countries.
For reference: the tariff confrontation between the US and the EU could potentially reduce global GDP by 7%, analysts warn.
In 2025, global merchandise trade is likely to decline by 0.2% if current tariff policies remain unchanged. This forecast was published by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in its updated report “Prospects and Statistics of World Trade”, released on April 16. The new expectations turned out to be noticeably more pessimistic — almost 3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast formed under the conditions of the “low tariffs” scenario.
The WTO emphasized the serious risks of a further decline in trade volumes, in particular, due to the potential restoration of “reciprocal tariffs” between the United States and other countries, as well as due to the spread of uncertainty in the field of trade policy. In the event of unfavorable developments, world trade may fall even deeper — to minus 1.5% in 2025.
Regional trends are indicated separately in the report. In particular, Asia, according to forecasts, will show moderate growth of 1.6% in both exports and imports. On the other hand, in North America, a sharp drop in exports is possible – by 12.6%, which could have serious consequences for the global trade balance.
For the first time, the WTO published a separate forecast for trade in services. The sector is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2025, which is, however, 1 percentage point worse than previously estimated. And here the impact of trade disputes and rising tariffs can have a deterrent effect.
