There is a shortage of personnel at the front. The new law on mobilization, the “Reserve+” application, the creation of a job site in the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Be yourself” – all these are steps to increase mobilization indicators. At the same time, the shortage of personnel in civilian life is becoming more noticeable. Due to migration and mobilization, there is a shortage of drivers, tractor drivers and other specialists, on whose work both exports and the functioning of the country’s economy in general depend.
Currently, enterprises that are recognized as critically important to the economy can reserve up to 50% of employees. However, such regulation does not solve the problem, because the logistics market cannot work at 50%. In addition, not all enterprises are included in the list of “critically important”.
Last year, especially its second half, as well as the beginning of 2024, were characterized by the recovery of the country’s economy. The inflation rate decreased, the hryvnia strengthened, and wages increased. However, the lack of a clear reservation strategy can break this trend and even lead to the country’s economic collapse.
The situation on the personnel market
In March 2023, 528,000 men were booked in Ukraine. According to the Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, by May this figure had increased to 700,000. About a third of them work in the energy sector.
More detailed information about the distribution by specialties is not public. However, in January, Texty reported on a similar distribution, where agricultural and industrial specialties were followed by energy specialists.
In May, a section with vacancies appeared on the employment platform work.ua, in which it is stated that the employer can book employees. Currently, the aggregator offers 6.8 thousand such positions from more than 100 thousand available ads on the site.
This data gives you a clear idea of who exactly companies want and can book, as well as in which industries they operate.
The majority of such vacancies are found among labor specialties and in industries, including the energy sector. However, relative to the total number of advertisements, they are inferior to vacancies in logistics and foreign economic activity, where every tenth vacancy is available for booking.
The fewest bookable jobs are in design or beauty salons: less than 1%. However, even there you can find ads, for example, for the position of storekeeper in the goods receiving department or florist in one of the “Epicenter” hypermarkets.
Booking conditions
There are more than 30,000 licensed international cargo carriers and another 12,000 domestic carriers in Ukraine. At the same time, about 70% of their staff are natural persons-entrepreneurs.
The reservation procedure approved by the government in March 2023 is uniform for all industries. First, the relevant ministry or regional state administration (ODA) must define the company as “critically important for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihood of the population in a special period.” For this, the company must meet at least three of the seven criteria:
- more than 1.5 million euros of taxes were paid per year;
- annual receipts in foreign currency exceed 32 million euros;
- the status of a strategic state enterprise;
- importance for the branch of the national economy or meeting the needs of the territorial community (determined by the relevant ministry or local authority);
- absence of debts due to the payment of the single social contribution (EUS);
- the average salary of employees for the last quarter exceeds the average salary in the region for the last quarter of 2021;
- “Diya.City” resident status.
Legal entities can book 50% of conscript workers who are officially employed. The exception is the enterprises of the military industry, where it is allowed to reserve all employees. For the IT and energy industries, it is enough to meet two of the seven criteria.
In 2023, six international and 22 domestic carriers applied to the Ministry of Reconstruction. In 2024, this process intensified: in the first five months, the number of appeals increased to 100 and 30, respectively. In addition to the government, companies could submit applications to the Regional State Administration, so the total number of applications is likely to be higher.
However, the logistics companies themselves are partly to blame for the problem with personnel, because the unwillingness to re-register from FOPs to other types of companies is “black”, and as a result, the non-compliance with the criteria regarding the EUV and the average salary do not allow transport companies to be included in the rank of critical.
On the other hand, even booking 50% of the workers puts the existence of the business at risk.
Without products and urban transport: what will happen if most drivers are mobilized
Problems in the logistics sector caused by mobilization have serious consequences for business and the economy of Ukraine. Delays and disruptions in supply chains cause disruptions in production and reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian enterprises. If these problems are not solved, it can lead to the collapse of the logistics industry and put the country’s economy at risk.
The shortage of drivers and the use of alternative labor sources increase logistics costs. Companies are forced to offer higher wages to attract and retain drivers, reducing their profitability. Operating expenses for fuel, etc. are also increasing.
The increase in logistics costs will affect the pockets of every Ukrainian, because the increase in transport costs will fall on the shoulders of the consumer – the prices of everything from products to clothes and services will rise. The cost of travel is also increasing, and some public transport routes will be closed altogether.
According to Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Serhii Derkach, the shortage of public transport drivers in the regions reaches more than 30%. Train intervals have already been increased in the capital’s metro due to staff shortages. The reason for the increase in the number of vacancies is partially forced migration, the specifics of professions and mobilization. About 7% of metro workers already serve in the ranks of the Armed Forces, and this figure is gradually increasing.
In Lviv, there is also a shortage of public transport drivers due to mobilization. LKP “Lvivelectrotrans” has 50 vacancies for trolleybus drivers and 40 vacancies for tram drivers. In addition, ATP-1 needs another 100-120 bus drivers.
Intensive mobilization in Kyiv has already affected the work of the public utility “Kyivpastrans”. Metropolitan transport lacks workers, in particular electricians and cable workers who repair networks for the movement of trolleybuses and trams. Energy experts even ask the management of “Kyivpastrans” to introduce additional restrictions on the speed of rolling stock in order to reduce the number of accidents on the lines.
The shortage of specialists will intensify the crisis, which may lead to the destruction of the energy system of contact networks in six months or a year, which will significantly affect the operation of city transport. KP “Kyivpastrans” admits a staff shortage in all services, but is already working on improving the situation.
Currently, the public utility “Kyivpastrans” lacks specialists in the following specialties: drivers, locksmiths, electricians, engineers. As for the lack of electricians servicing the company’s electrical networks, “Kyivpastrans” confirms that there really was such a problem, but now the situation is improving.
Some specialists can be replaced by women. The training or retraining of drivers of trams, trolleybuses, and buses is carried out on the basis of the Training and Course Combine of KP “Kyivpastrans”, where women constantly receive driver’s licenses.
However, this will not solve the problem completely, because there are doubts about the substitution of men’s professions by women, for example, electricians on the company’s electrical networks. Women are not always able to perform specific jobs related to heavy physical loads.
Proposals to save the economy
Officials are now discussing changing the booking procedure at businesses. The government plans to expand the reservation criteria for truck and passenger bus drivers.
The Ministry of Reconstruction proposes to book FOP carriers if they have permits for international transportation.
Another possible criterion can be the experience of previous transportation, which confirms the activity of the carrier on the market, the government believes.
It is proposed to at least identify as critical those companies that worked in the international transportation market until 2022, and book them by 100%, not by 50%. It is also proposed to reduce the number of conditions for booking companies from three to two. The Ministry of Reconstruction has already submitted to the Ministry of Economy the categories of transport positions that should be recognized as critical, including drivers of commercial transport (cargo or passenger).
Finally, even if the company fulfills all the criteria for booking drivers, they must first update their data in TCC. They are often mobilized even before they have time to book. However, this problem is characteristic of all industries and requires a general solution at the government level.
In addition to increasing the volume of bookings for transport companies, the involvement of women in some professions can help. The Ministry of Infrastructure is already developing a nationwide program for training women to drive large vehicles. However, the motivation factor should work here. If it will be really easier to learn, and the salary in the sector will increase, then there will be more women willing to take up vacancies in the logistics industry.
