Why Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukrainian cities and what to expect in November: Oleksiy Kopytko
The US elections are approaching, and political tension is rising not only in Washington, but also in Moscow. According to the military and political analyst, former adviser to the Minister of Defense Oleksiy Kopytka, Russia is trying to raise the level of tension by increasing the number and severity of attacks on Ukrainian cities. This is the only card that the Kremlin can play at this stage – terror against the civilian population with the hope that this pressure will force the West to change its position or provoke a political crisis in Ukraine.
An expert considers, that massive attacks on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kryvyi Rih and Kherson, as well as constant shelling of cities in Donbas, testify to Moscow’s desire to create chaos and sow panic among civilians. After all, the Ukrainian army continues to defend its positions, and direct military pressure from Russia does not bring the desired results. Therefore, the Russian leadership is trying to strike “from the rear”, using missile attacks as a tool of psychological terror.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Ukrainian theme does not occupy a central place in the American election campaign. The presidential candidates do not seek to get deeply involved in solving the Ukrainian problem, which can be used by Russia as an argument in its favor. According to the expert, we should not expect a significant increase in technical assistance to Ukraine until November. Although certain statements and spot deliveries are possible, they will not be able to radically change the situation.
“Unfortunately, there is no effective antidote to these attacks.
The participants in the American elections show that they do not want to get deeply involved in the Ukrainian situation and make it an important part of the agenda.
There will definitely not be enough technical means until November. There may be statements and spot improvements. I want to make a mistake.” – noted Kopytko.
Against the background of this uncertainty, the analyst urges not to ignore air warning signals and to be as cautious as possible. If the Ukrainian military can achieve new successes in the destruction of Russian arsenals and ammunition depots, this may reduce the intensity of shelling. However, time is of the essence: the US elections are less than two months away, and Russia will try to use this period for maximum escalation. November will be decisive, as key policy decisions for 2025 will be made in both the US and Europe. If Russia fails to break the front and achieve strategic victories, its position in the international arena will weaken. At the same time, this will be a period of trials for Ukraine, which will require endurance and mobilization of all efforts to overcome the crisis.
“Everyone has seen the success of long-range strikes against Russia. The effect of the removal of arsenals and ammunition depots should be evident a few weeks after the incidents (that is, at the beginning of October). If there are more successes, then the pressure on the front may decrease a little.
One and a half months left. If the Russians fail to collapse the front (even if there are still territorial losses) before the elections, they will not be able to play the aid card to Ukraine as America’s failure. And the tone of the conversations in November will not be the one they would like. It is in November that all the real decisions regarding 2025 will be made both in the USA and in Europe.
Will have to endure”, – summarized the expert.
The author of the article expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editorial position.
