The National Bank of Ukraine came to the conclusion that the actual level of inflation exceeded the forecast indicators, however, a decrease in retail prices is currently not expected. Positive changes are predicted only from the summer. About this informs NBU press office.
“In January 2025, inflation accelerated to 12.9% in annual terms. In monthly terms, prices rose by 1.2%. This is evidenced by data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Actual inflation slightly exceeded the trajectory of the National Bank’s forecast published in the Inflation Report for January 2025.
The main reason for the deviation of the price dynamics from the forecast was a more significant increase in both administratively regulated prices for goods and services and the cost of market services due to the further increase in production costs, in particular energy supply and labor wages, as well as tax and regulatory changes.” – says the message.
In the coming months, the National Bank does not expect a decrease in retail prices and predicts an increase in inflation at the beginning of 2025. This is explained both by temporary factors, in particular the limited supply of food due to weak harvests last year, and by fundamental factors, such as the increase in business costs for energy and labor costs. In addition, inflation figures will appear higher due to the low base compared to the previous year.
At the same time, the NBU predicts that inflation will decrease in the second half of 2025:
“The strengthening of the interest rate policy of the NBU and its measures to maintain a stable situation on the foreign exchange market, the expansion of the supply of food products after the arrival of the new harvest, the narrowing of the fiscal deficit, as well as moderate external price pressure will contribute to the slowdown of inflation.”.
