Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes and go abroad in search of safety. Three years have passed since then, and return trends have begun to change. If earlier a significant part of refugees considered leaving as a temporary measure, now the number of those who are ready to return to their homeland has significantly decreased.
Research results
For data According to a study conducted by the Info Sapiens agency on behalf of the Center for Economic Strategy, as of the end of 2024, only 43% of Ukrainian refugees expressed their intention to return to Ukraine. This is the first time that the indicator fell below half of the respondents.
The reasons for this development of events are quite complex. First, the security situation in the country remains unstable. Even in regions where hostilities are no longer taking place, the threat of shelling and possible new hostilities are raising fears among people who have found refuge in European countries. Secondly, many Ukrainians who left lost their homes due to hostilities. For them, returning means starting life almost from scratch, without a guarantee of proper living conditions and employment.
Time plays a key role in the decision to return. As time passes, fewer refugees consider returning. A significant part of Ukrainians who left have adapted to the new living conditions abroad. They found work, gained access to social benefits, and their children integrated into local education systems. An important role is played by the support provided by European countries, providing Ukrainians not only with housing and medical care, but also with opportunities for development and employment. In such a situation, returning to Ukraine seems less attractive, especially if the prospects for work and living conditions in the homeland remain uncertain.
Categories of refugees
According to the study, refugees can be tentatively divided into four categories. The first group is the so-called “patriotic” refugees who, despite the difficulties, are determined to return and help rebuild the country. The second group is “quasi-labour migrants”, who consider staying abroad as an opportunity to earn money, but do not rule out returning in the future. The third group is “classic refugees” who fled the war and do not plan to return, as they have already settled their lives in new countries. The fourth group is “people from combat zones”, among whom, despite all the difficulties, there is still a significant percentage of those who wish to return home.
Another important factor is the economic situation. The war has seriously hit the Ukrainian economy, which means that for many, returning may be a financially disadvantageous decision. High unemployment, low wages and broken infrastructure make adjustment after return more difficult. For comparison, Ukrainians who stayed abroad have a stable income and social protection, which reduces the motivation to return.
The state policy of Ukraine will play a significant role in the future return of refugees. If the government creates effective mechanisms to support returnees, particularly in the areas of housing, employment and integration, the number of those willing to return may increase. At the same time, without the end of hostilities and the restoration of basic infrastructure, this process will remain limited.
Currently, the situation looks like a mass return of Ukrainian refugees is unlikely in the coming years. Many have already established themselves in new countries, and the economic and security situation in Ukraine does not provide enough incentives to return. Despite this, some Ukrainians retain hope for the restoration of the country and return home, which will depend on many factors – from the duration of the war to the economic revival of Ukraine.
