Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the global political and security situation has undergone fundamental changes. The international community, in particular Western countries, is facing a serious challenge: how to ensure stability and security in the face of new threats? Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum, now finds itself in an extremely dangerous situation. The absence of adequate protective mechanisms from Western allies has put the country on the brink of a critical choice: either to seek protection through integration into NATO or to restore its own nuclear potential as the only reliable way to deter an aggressor.
This dilemma not only forces the West to respond to new realities, but also significantly complicates the geopolitical game for all parties to the conflict. The stakes are high: the future of Ukraine, global nuclear security and Russia’s influence in the region. Kyiv finds itself in a situation where it is expected to either heroically submit or to escalate sharply in the form of a return to nuclear status. And it is against the backdrop of this dilemma that politicians and experts are beginning to discuss new scenarios.
Ukraine’s nuclear dilemma: the fork in the road between NATO and nuclear weapons
Oleksiy Kopytko, political and military analyst, former adviser to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, coordinator of the Information Resistance group, leading expert at the Centre for Military and Political Investigations , believes that the events of recent years have changed the approaches of many countries to national security. If earlier only a few states could seriously consider the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons, after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this scenario has acquired a new dimension. Now, those countries that had previously been hesitant are quickly realising that nuclear weapons are the only real mechanism to guarantee sovereignty.
Kopytko emphasises that the current state of international security no longer provides alternatives for Ukraine. The strategy of deterrence through partnerships or international agreements has proved insufficient. The West is unable to guarantee full security to its allies without significant military capabilities on the ground. Therefore, the restoration of the nuclear arsenal, although not publicly declared, is becoming an increasingly likely scenario for many countries, including Ukraine.
“This simple idea has been communicated to our partners since February 2022. And before February, we emphasised the situation that would arise if Russia was not influenced. And the situation has arisen. Moreover. In the winter of 2024, the full-time herald of the apocalypse, Sergei Karaganov, put forward an idea: Russia should give away nuclear weapons to loyal countries. Controlled nuclear proliferation is a candy that the Kremlin has and the West does not.
Now, various talking heads in the West may start to shame Ukraine for marking the ‘NATO or Nuclear’ fork. Although they have no argument why Ukraine should not put the issue in this way. If you pull the victim of aggression (and even more so if you blackmail them into stopping aid), it will not help, but on the contrary, it will only encourage the efforts of nuclear weapons contenders.
That is, it turns out that you can’t join NATO, you can’t have nuclear weapons, and it turns out that you can only die heroically – this is a very unattractive model,” Kopytko said.
Context of nuclear escalation: international consequences and new realities
Kopytko notes that the idea of nuclear proliferation, including its controlled spread among countries loyal to Russia, is already in geopolitical discussions. Russia, which possesses the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world, is actively promoting this concept as part of its geostrategy. Especially after Sergei Karaganov’s statement that Russia could transfer nuclear weapons to other states, the situation has become more acute.
This ‘nuclear genie’, as Kopytko says, is already out of the bottle. It will take serious efforts from world leaders, including the United States, to bring it back, or at least to bring it under control. At the moment, however, the political elites in the West are still hesitant, making the situation even more dangerous.
“And you know what is the most dramatic for the partners? If Ukraine loses and some kind of Russian-controlled entity emerges, it will become nominally nuclear with Moscow’s help. That is, it is no longer about our country. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle. To control it, we need adequate actions.
But the very thought of having to deal with such truly global issues makes those who are supposed to do so tremble nervously.
I see nothing wrong with the fact that nuclear weapons have been identified as a possible political goal for Ukraine. Given national consensus and consistent efforts, if not under this president, then under the next one or the one after that, Ukraine will definitely be able to solve this problem,’ Kopytko said.
Perspective for Ukraine: NATO or nuclear weapons?
One of the biggest dilemmas for Ukraine today is the choice between integration into NATO and restoration of its nuclear status. According to Oleksiy Kopytko, this choice is becoming more and more obvious. If the West is unable to guarantee Ukraine’s security through a military alliance, Ukraine has every reason to restore its nuclear arsenal as the only effective means of self-defence.
Ukraine has repeatedly stated the importance of its membership in NATO as a guarantee of its security. However, as Kopytko notes, the West has not always offered convincing arguments in response. On the one hand, the West is not ready for a direct confrontation with Russia, and on the other hand, it cannot provide Ukraine with adequate support to enable it to defend itself without such drastic solutions as nuclear weapons.
Therefore, the attitude towards the restoration of nuclear capabilities may become a key political topic in Ukraine. This issue will transcend the current political situation and may influence the next generations of Ukrainian leaders. At least, if not under this president, then under the next one, Ukraine could become a nuclear power.
Impact on the international community: a game changer
This prospect of Ukraine’s nuclear renaissance puts the West in an extremely difficult position. As Kopytko notes, if Ukraine does not receive adequate assistance and is defeated in the war, it could be replaced by a Russian-controlled quasi-state. And what is worse for the international community, this entity will be nuclear, which will set a precedent that will undermine the entire global security system.
According to the expert, Western partners should understand that controlling Russia’s nuclear weapons is not only a matter of security for Ukraine, but also for the whole world. If Moscow takes the initiative in proliferating nuclear weapons among its allies, the consequences will be irreversible. This means that the international community must act quickly and decisively to stop this process.
“This is evident. Now it is their issue, not Ukraine’s. We can either help or aggravate their situation. Let them offer something, because the whole world is watching,” Kopytko concluded.
