Will there be demobilization in Ukraine: contradictory statements of representatives of the authorities

Ukraine continues to face numerous challenges in the field of mobilization of military personnel, but problems with the demobilization of the military are no less acute. Legislation on mobilization has been the subject of many discussions and amendments, but the question of demobilization has not yet been resolved. The new version of the mobilization law, which came into effect in April 2024, does not include provisions on demobilization, which has drawn criticism from the public and the military.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, Ukraine has been forced to increase the size of its army, but the problem is that the servicemen who were mobilized at the beginning of the war are still at the front without rotation and prospects of demobilization. Delays in establishing clear terms of service have angered military families, who are demanding demobilization and rotation rules.

In addition, the lack of clear demobilization rules significantly reduces the willingness of citizens to join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This leads to the fact that many consider mobilization a “one-way ticket”, which creates serious social and psychological problems, negatively affects the morale of soldiers and their families. Defenders who are on the front lines for a long time, without the possibility to return to civilian life, lose motivation and become increasingly exhausted both physically and psychologically.

Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Roman Kostenko, recently expressed an optimistic opinion about the possibility of demobilization. He believes that if the current pace of mobilization in Ukraine is maintained until the end of the summer, the parliament may start consideration of the draft law on demobilization.

Kostenko noted that after the adoption of the new law on mobilization, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is satisfied with the pace of conscription, which even exceeds expectations. He and the military leadership hope that this trend will continue.

In this regard, the People’s Deputy reported that maintaining such a pace of mobilization until the end of summer will make it possible to submit a bill on demobilization to the Verkhovna Rada, which can be adopted in October 2024.

At the same time, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, Iryna Friz, reported that an agreement on demobilization was reached during a meeting of the committee’s working group with representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.

“At the working group with the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, the chairman raised the issue of the need to develop a corresponding draft law, which, according to the final provision of the law on mobilization, was entrusted to the executive branch of power, i.e. the government. An agreement was reached that the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense will monitor the dynamics of mobilization under the new law within 3-4 months. If it will have the same positive characteristics as in May and June, then in October a correspondingly developed draft law on exemption from military service during martial law should be submitted so that it can be considered in a timely manner and approved by the deputies., – said Freeze.

She also reported that the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff want the law on demobilization to enter into force in December 2024. In addition, Freese said that the demobilization bill would provide for the possibility of discharge from military service after 36 months of continuous service, 18 of which are under combat orders. In her opinion, this is an absolutely effective and correct algorithm in view of the needs of the Armed Forces in retraining in case of dismissal.

At the same time, the odious Member of Parliament, deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Maryana Bezugla, called the information about the likely consideration of the bill on demobilization at the end of the summer “false.”

Ukrainian blogger Yevhen Prokopyshyn, who reflected on the topic of demobilization, wrote on his Facebook page:

“The General Staff (General Staff – ed.) says that the pace of mobilization has increased significantly and exceeds expectations – it is possible that there will be partial demobilization from the fall (most likely, a long rotation). But it is important not only to recruit people, but also to recruit younger people and prepare them well – there are still problems with this…”.

In response to this, Bezugla wrote that this is not true. According to her, mobilization has really increased, and recruiting has also had an effect. However, people’s deputies do not consider demobilization for the military. At the same time, she promised to tell separately what was discussed in the profile committee.

Along with this, the government believes that the situation at the front and in the country as a whole does not allow for demobilization at the moment. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, stated in an interview with Radio Svoboda that at the moment there are no conditions in Ukraine for demobilization from the front, as there is a great need for certificates of soldiers who have already served for more than two years. At the same time, the minister noted that he understands the military, who have been fighting for a long time and want to demobilize.

“If we demobilize those people who, for example, have served 2 years, then our front will “sag” and the units will be inferior. We must now renew the combat capability of the units and we must have, at least, an equivalent replacement during the rotation of the active brigades and battalions… We have no right to collapse the front

We need an experienced military to hold. For example, these people who are currently training at the range, they will become experienced soldiers in a few months… If there are two formations, then we can talk about some kind of greater demobilization.” – said Klymenko.

Therefore, at present, the issue of demobilization remains uncertain. Only time will tell whether all the necessary conditions for its solution will be met. Meanwhile, active mobilization continues.