World events of recent years increasingly indicate that a new type of conflict may appear on the horizon – the so-called “food wars”. Geopolitical tensions and climate change are already affecting global food supply systems today, creating new threats to global stability. A reduction in food supplies can lead to conflicts between countries trying to provide their citizens with basic food products.
The impact of geopolitical tensions on food security
Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between major powers, trade wars and economic sanctions, have long had an impact on the global economy and global food security systems. The modern world order, based on interdependence and globalization, makes food markets vulnerable to political conflicts, economic sanctions and military actions. Geopolitical tensions can take many forms, such as military conflicts, economic sanctions, diplomatic disputes, and political crises. For example, conflicts in the Middle East, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine, as well as trade wars between the US and China, pose significant risks to global food security. These events affect the production, supply and prices of food commodities.
Military conflicts lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure, which reduces food production. For example, the war in Syria has destroyed large areas of agricultural land, leading to a sharp reduction in food production in the region. Similarly, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine caused a decrease in grain production, as many farmers were forced to leave their fields due to danger or lost access to essential resources.
In addition, food supplies are significantly affected by economic sanctions and trade restrictions. The war in Ukraine has significantly affected global food markets – our country is one of the largest suppliers of grain in the world, and the conflict on its territory has led to a reduction in grain exports, which has caused an increase in food prices around the world. Economic sanctions imposed against Russia also have a negative impact on the supply of food products at the global level in world food markets. The Russian Federation is one of the largest suppliers of fertilizers, and restrictions on their exports have caused a shortage of fertilizers, which, in turn, has reduced yields in many countries.
Geopolitical tensions also affect food prices. For example, trade wars between the US and China have led to higher tariffs on agricultural products, creating hardship for farmers and raising food prices for consumers.
Instability in key food-producing regions, such as the Middle East, is driving up prices for staple foods such as wheat, corn and rice. Rising tensions between Iran and the US are often accompanied by fluctuating oil prices, which affect the cost of transporting food and, consequently, its final price.
Countries dependent on food imports are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. For example, countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which import much of their food production, face serious challenges due to rising food prices caused by conflict or sanctions. At the same time, countries that are major food exporters may experience losses due to restricted access to markets or reduced demand for their products.
The humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which began in 2015, has been significantly exacerbated by blockades and restrictions on food imports. The conflict between Saudi-backed government forces and Houthi rebels has caused widespread famine and food shortages for millions of Yemenis. Port blockades and restrictions on the import of food and medical supplies are used as weapons, leading to catastrophic humanitarian consequences.
The conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, which began in 2020, also has a significant impact on food security. The hostilities led to massive displacement of the population, destruction of agricultural land and infrastructure. Blockades and restrictions on the import of humanitarian aid have led to famine in many areas, creating additional tensions and worsening the situation.
The economic crisis in Venezuela, which has been ongoing since the mid-2010s, has led to severe food shortages. Hyperinflation, devaluation of the national currency and political instability have led to the fact that a large part of the population faces problems of access to basic food products. Mass protests and armed clashes caused by food shortages have become commonplace in the country.
Climate change and its consequences
Climate change is already affecting agriculture around the world today. Rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, frequent droughts, and other extreme weather events have a negative impact on the yield of agricultural crops. For example, in Africa, climate change has led to reduced yields of maize, which is the main food crop for many countries on the continent.
In addition, rising sea levels and an increase in the number of natural disasters are also causing the loss of agricultural land. This leads to a decrease in food production and, as a result, to an increase in food prices.
The civil war in Syria that began in 2011 was partly caused by a severe drought that lasted from 2006 to 2010. This drought led to a mass migration of the rural population to urban areas, which worsened economic and social conditions. Inadequate food security became one of the reasons for the dissatisfaction of the population, which eventually led to mass protests and armed conflict.
The Indus River is a vital waterway for both countries, providing water and irrigation to millions of people in India and Pakistan. However, both countries have a history of conflicts over access to the water of this river. In 1960, the Indus Agreement was signed, which regulates the distribution of water resources between countries. Despite this, tensions between India and Pakistan over water resources continue to exist, and any breach of the agreement could lead to major conflicts.
History also knows many examples when conflicts arose over food resources in the middle of the state. Thus, during the Arab Spring of 2011, rising food prices became one of the reasons for mass protests in many countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Inadequate food security contributed to destabilization of the region and changes in governments. In Africa, too, the struggle for fertile land and water resources often leads to armed clashes between different ethnic groups and states. For example, the conflict in Darfur (Sudan) was partly driven by the struggle for control over resources, including water and land.
Could a food war threaten Ukraine?
Ukraine, as one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products, is particularly vulnerable to global and regional threats related to food resources. Our country is already at the center of geopolitical conflicts, in particular due to Russia’s aggression. The hostilities, which have been ongoing since 2014, have led to significant destruction of agricultural land, infrastructure and logistics routes. This has affected food production and exports, creating additional risks to food security.
Also, the climate in Ukraine is gradually changing, in particular due to more frequent droughts, extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation regimes. This can lead to reduced yields of major agricultural crops, which in turn poses a threat to national and global food security.
Economic sanctions imposed against Russia and other international restrictions significantly affect Ukraine’s exports and imports. Blockades and restrictions on the export of Ukrainian grain or other agricultural products can lead to a reduction in income and economic stability of the country, which creates additional pressure on food security.
At the same time, internal economic instability and financial difficulties are also undermining Ukraine’s ability to ensure stable food production and supply. Inflation, currency depreciation and economic crises lead to rising food prices, which creates additional tension in society.
All these factors may threaten the emergence of a food war in Ukraine. Competition for our natural resources, such as water and fertile land, can lead to international conflicts. Countries are increasingly resorting to them due to reduced food supplies, creating additional risks to our food security.
How the country’s governments are preparing for the food crisis
Global food prices began to rise after the spread of Covid-19 and rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to blocked grain and fertilizer exports. This has deepened food insecurity in poorer countries and left consumers around the world facing a cost-of-living crisis.
With rising prices and climate change hampering agricultural production around the world, governments are increasingly resorting to protectionist policies and building up their strategic reserves. For example, Indonesia banned palm oil exports in 2022 to protect the local market, and last year India imposed export restrictions on certain types of rice in an attempt to curb rising domestic prices ahead of elections after an erratic monsoon disrupted production.
Another example is Norway, which started building strategic grain stocks during the pandemic and is continuing them now due to the threat of war and climate change. The Norwegian government has signed an agreement to store 30,000 tons of grain to prepare for crisis situations. In addition, it is planned to increase grain stocks to 82.5 thousand tons by 2029 to ensure three months of population consumption.
Possible scenarios of future conflicts
The Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference took place last week. Sunny Verghese, chief executive of Singapore-based agricultural trading house Olam Agri, warned that trade barriers imposed by governments seeking to shore up domestic food stocks have fueled food inflation.
“We fought many wars because of oil. We will fight bigger wars for food and water”, – emphasized Verghese.
Big agricultural traders, who enjoyed record profits in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent food prices soaring, have been blamed for fueling inflation through profit-boosting markups. That is, the problem of food shortage in the world is partially artificial.
According to Verghese, the proliferation of non-tariff trade barriers in 2022 in response to the war created an exaggerated imbalance between supply and demand. He argues that wealthier countries have been hoarding surpluses of strategic goods, leading to exaggerated demand and rising prices.
However, given current trends, several scenarios for future conflicts over food resources can be assumed. One of them is conflicts between countries that are large importers of food and exporting countries. For example, China, which depends on food imports to support its citizens, may come into conflict with countries that restrict food exports due to internal crises or political reasons.
Another possible scenario is internal conflicts in countries where climate change leads to reduced harvests and rising food prices. This can lead to political instability, mass protests and armed clashes, as has already happened in a number of countries in the Middle East and Africa.
Consequently, a reduction in food supplies can lead to new conflicts both between countries and within them. World leaders must recognize these threats and take preventive measures to reduce these risks and ensure food security. Otherwise, humanity may face new large-scale conflicts that will have catastrophic consequences for all countries.
Oksana Ishchenko
