Escalation of threats to nuclear safety in Ukraine and the world

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said at a recent meeting of the UN Security Council that the world is coming dangerously close to a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This was reported by foreign media, including the BBC, Le Monde and The Times of Israel. Grossi considers it impossible to establish who exactly is behind the drone strikes on the station, but stated that the attacks set a very dangerous precedent, as they violate the containment structure (a complex for transforming dangerous objects into an environmentally safe system) of the reactor. At the same time, the Director General of the IAEA reported that the risk of a major accident at the Zaporizhzhya NPP exists even if the reactors are turned off.

“These senseless attacks must be stopped immediately. Although fortunately this time they did not lead to a radiological incident, they significantly increase the risk at a power plant where nuclear safety is already compromised.

We cannot sit back and watch the last weight tip the delicately balanced scales. We are dangerously close to a nuclear catastrophe. We must not be complacent and let the roll of the dice decide what happens tomorrow.” – said the Director General of the IAEA.

Grossi was concerned by the direct shelling of the Zaporizhzhia NPP on April 7, 2024. At the same time, one of the blows fell on the protective dome of the 6th reactor of the ZNPP, and two more – on objects near the buildings where the reactors are located. The damage to the dome was external, but according to Grossi, such an attack “sets a very dangerous precedent of a successful strike on the protective shell of the reactor.”

In turn, the head of the State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation, Oleg Korikov, believes that transferring all power units of the ZNPP to a cold state reduces risks, but does not eliminate the probability of nuclear danger.

“Cold power units are safer than hot ones. If the power units are in a cold state, we can talk about a reduction in water consumption, since water resources are limited after the destruction of the Kakhov reservoir, and a reduction in electricity supply from the energy system of Ukraine. From the point of view of nuclear and radiation safety, in the event of a complete de-energization of the station, the amount of time before the possible destruction of safety barriers in the way of the spread of radiation into the environment increases.” – remarked Korikov.

Despite the fact that the Zaporizhzhya NPP is known for its reliability and high safety standards, no nuclear facility is 100% invulnerable to attacks or terrorist acts, so the possibility of a nuclear hazard is quite real. In addition, the security of Ukraine and the world is threatened by the possible use of nuclear weapons during military conflicts. World leaders have repeatedly expressed concern about the threats of its use by the first persons of the Russian Federation. They believe that if Russia did not have nuclear weapons, the degree of NATO’s involvement in hostilities in Ukraine would be radically different. At the same time, there are politicians in foreign countries who urge not to be afraid of nuclear threats from the Russian Federation, explaining them as a bluff, but such an opinion is currently not overwhelming.

At the same time, among the leaders of Western countries, there is an opinion that the possible intentions of NATO to enter into a military confrontation with the Russian Federation will not only not scare it, but on the contrary will suit it, since it will bring the latent conflict to the verge of a direct confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation with the prospect of a nuclear war . This can be used by Russia in order to force European countries to engage in dialogue regarding the restructuring of the world order. This is confirmed by the fact that the US policy towards Ukraine has been marked by certain fears recently. American politicians believe that the Russian Federation may use nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction if the US or other NATO members continue to provide Ukraine with aid aimed at causing serious damage to Russian troops or the country as a whole.

Along with this, there is a probability of using nuclear weapons in the countries of the Middle East. UN chief Antonio Guterres has also repeatedly stated that he is extremely concerned about Israel’s possible targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities, which are currently closed to IAEA inspectors for security reasons. By the way, the agency has been expressing concern about Iran’s nuclear program since 2011. At the same time, in September 2023, the United States and Israel conducted joint exercises during which strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities were practiced.

In 2021, the Iranian authorities officially notified the IAEA of the start of the process of enriching uranium at the level of 20% at the Fordow nuclear facility. At the same time, the official representative of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Behruza Kamalvandi, said that Iran can enrich uranium to 90%. From 2022, Iran began massively building up its uranium enrichment capabilities using centrifuges at an underground plant in Natang. In March of this year, the IAEA confirmed the presence in Iran of enriched uranium close to the concentration suitable for making weapons.

Therefore, Israel’s targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities, as well as the shelling of the nuclear power plant, create real catastrophic risks, while one should take into account the presence of a huge nuclear arsenal in Russia – 5,889 warheads, which is the highest indicator in the world.

At the same time, there is another important problem in the world – placing nuclear weapons in outer space. Back in the days of the space and nuclear races of the USA and the USSR, tests of nuclear weapons were conducted in space. The Americans were the first to conduct them in 1958 as part of the “Argus” project – nuclear explosions were carried out over the Atlantic Ocean at altitudes of 170, 310 and 794 kilometers. In response to this, in 1961, the USSR carried out a series of high-altitude nuclear explosions as part of Operation “K” with a maximum height of more than 300 kilometers. However, such high-profile experiments were banned in 1963 by the “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, Outer Space and Under Water”, which was signed by the USA, USSR and Britain. In 1967, the “Space Treaty” was also signed between them, which obliged “not to put into orbit around the Earth any objects with nuclear weapons or any other types of weapons of mass destruction, not to install such weapons on celestial bodies and not to place such weapons in outer space in any way”. Currently, 112 countries are members of this treaty, 23 more countries have signed it, but have not completed ratification (among them – Iran).

Recently, there have been rumors that the Russian Federation may place nuclear weapons in space. For example, the chairman of the US intelligence committee, Mike Turner, reported on the serious threat to the country’s national security posed by Russia’s anti-satellite program. However, she denies the existence of plans to place anti-satellite nuclear weapons in space, calling it “blatant accusations” and “tricks by the White House.” One of the reasons why the Russian Federation may plan to use anti-satellite weapons is that the United States and European countries use their satellites for military purposes – to monitor the movement of troops and the construction of bases, detect missile launches, and create combat communications. At the same time, the American military uses outer space very effectively, and the Russian Federation considers the use of anti-satellite nuclear weapons “a way of leveling the odds in a military conflict with a stimulating effect.”

In 2023, there were more than 7.8 thousand active satellites in the Earth’s orbit, how many there are now, there is no information yet. If a deliberate but accidental nuclear explosion were to occur, it would affect about a third of the satellites and damage communications systems on Earth. At the same time, some experts doubt the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation in space, believing that they may be devices with a nuclear engine, and not a nuclear warhead – something similar to a “jammer” for satellite communications.

Be that as it may, in the near future the USA plans to submit a resolution to the UN Security Council calling on all countries not to place nuclear weapons in outer space – in orbit around the Earth, and they also hope that the Russian Federation will support this important document.

Possible scenarios of the development of events

In the event of shelling or technical problems at a nuclear power plant, political instability in a country possessing nuclear weapons or nuclear power plants, as well as during the use of nuclear weapons, radiation will be released into the environment, which will lead to serious consequences for human life and the environment. In this connection, we should mention the tragic historical events that took place at the Chornobyl NPP and in Japan. As a result of the Chernobyl reactor explosion in April 1986, a radioactive cloud covered part of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. About 4,000 people died as a result of the explosion, including those who died decades after the accident from illnesses caused by radioactive exposure. In total, about 600,000 people received it at that time.

On August 6 and 9, 1945, at the end of World War II, the United States dropped various types of atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was the first and only combat use of nuclear weapons in human history, killing about 140,000 of Hiroshima’s 350,000 population and more than 74,000 in Nagasaki, including the effects of disease, burns and radiation sickness. Nuclear explosions produced a bright flash of light similar to lightning. It blinded and burned everything in a huge radius, and people had no chance to protect themselves from the heat radiation, which reached 5,538 degrees Celsius. At the point of impact of a nuclear bomb, everything was completely burned and vaporized, while smoke, gases and small particles rose into the air, forming a mushroom cloud. When the energy hit an object, such as a person or object, it was absorbed, shielding objects in the path and creating a whitening effect beyond the shadow.

Soon after, a powerful shock wave followed, destroying houses and killing people for many kilometers, its speed reaching several hundred kilometers per hour. Under the debris of bricks, concrete, and broken glass, she buried people alive or caused significant injuries. According to expert estimates, 30% of the victims in Hiroshima were killed by the falling material. The same situation was in Nagasaki. In addition, the shock wave at long distances caused damage to internal organs in people, accompanied by bleeding.

Also, during atomic explosions, a large amount of radioactive radiation was released, which instantly killed people or caused acute radiation sickness (depending on the degree of damage), the consequences of which were mass oncological diseases, the birth of children with pathology, or miscarriages in pregnant women.

Leaders of countries and the entire world community should remember the tragic lessons of history and realize that nuclear security, which exists now, is one of the most important problems of our time, its solution requires a comprehensive approach, a system of national measures, international legal agreements and voluntary initiatives, otherwise humanity a global nuclear catastrophe may await.

Oksana Ishchenko

We previously wrote about nuclear weapons here.