Almost half of Ukrainians believe that the war with Russia has reached a dead end: survey results and researchers’ conclusions
Almost half of Ukrainians believe that the war with Russia has reached a stalemate, according to a new poll. However, nearly three-quarters said they were “very confident” or “somewhat confident” that Ukraine would “eventually liberate all of its territories.”
The poll, sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) and conducted by the Ukrainian sociological research company Rating, is one of the largest measurements of public opinion in Ukraine since the start of a full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, its organizers say.
2,000 people participated in the survey in all regions of Ukraine, but not in the territories occupied by Russia or abroad. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of 2.2 percent, poll organizers said.
Overall, the published poll found strong public support for the ongoing military effort and reluctance to accept Russia’s main demands, which include the surrender of four regions in southeastern Ukraine. According to Eric Chiaramelli, one of CEIP’s principal researchers, the results showed “a significant degree of national unity.”
About 44 percent of respondents said they believed neither Ukraine nor Russia would win the war, while 41 percent said Ukraine would and only 5 percent said Russia would.
“Obviously war fatigue has set in, which is understandable after 2 and a half years,” Chiaramella said. This has led to “a greater degree of uncertainty” about “who will win” or “what the battlefield will look like in a year or two,” Chiaramelli said.
But, according to the researcher, the views do not “turn into a desire to give in to Russia’s key demands.” He added: “The resilience factor is still there in an amazing way.”
However, this stability may turn out to be unrealistic. Overall, 73 percent of respondents were either “very confident” or “somewhat confident” that Ukraine would “eventually liberate all of its territories,” and 59 percent said they believed the war would last less than a year or one to two years.
The survey also revealed striking new differences between age groups: older Ukrainians are more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning militarily and are less willing to seek compromises with Russia.
More than half of respondents over the age of 60 — 54 percent — said Ukraine would win the war, compared to only 31 percent of those aged 18 to 25. About 60 percent of the older group said Ukraine should not negotiate peace with Russia, compared to 47 percent of the younger cohort.
This result indicates a change in attitudes, including before the invasion, when older Ukrainians often expressed a more pro-Russian position, while younger Ukrainians were more Western and reform-minded, according to Tetiana Skrypchenko, a researcher of the sociological rating.
“Older people…changed their views. They believe that we should fight to the end, join NATO and not go to negotiations. While the generational divide has been growing since the start of the invasion, it is much sharper now. Some kind of social tension and potential social conflict is increasing. Young people want to live their lives, and older people say: “No, there is a war in our country.” – believes Skrypchenko.
Overall, about half of respondents said they believe Ukraine should fight until it frees all of its territory, including Crimea, which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014. Others were less ambitious, with 12 percent saying Ukraine should fight until it pushes Russian forces back to pre-February 2022 levels.
The results were not much different from previous polls, but revealed trends in Ukrainian public opinion that have accelerated during the war and will potentially limit President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s ability to negotiate.
“The general optimism of Ukrainian society is both an asset and a weakness of the Ukrainian leadership”, Chiaramelli said.
However, according to Chiaramella, many Ukrainians seem to have “unrealistic expectations” of what is “possible from a military point of view in the next one to three years. “
“It’s still going to be a long shot,” Chiaramelli said, adding that “high expectations” could “lead to some disappointment down the road.”
Ukrainians also do not believe Russia’s motives: more than 90 percent believe that Russia wants to start negotiations in order to give it time for another attack. More than 80 percent believe that Russia will attack again, even if a peace agreement is signed.
As NATO leaders prepare to meet next month in Washington for their 75th anniversary summit, a majority of Ukrainians — 59 percent — doubt the country will receive an invitation to fulfill its long-held hope of joining the alliance.
“Ukrainians are becoming more realistic about what is possible. And so, even though the government’s official position is that we want to get an invitation, … most respondents think it’s unlikely and they’re really focused on … self-sufficiency.” – believes Chiaramelli.
