Analysis of the current situation at the front and possible scenarios of the development of events: a comment by military expert Mykhailo Samus

Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform, which is engaged in the analysis of global and regional security challenges, is one of the leading military experts in Ukraine. With 12 years of experience in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he provided an in-depth analysis of the current situation at the front and possible scenarios of the development of events.

In his expert opinion, he illuminates key points, such as the possibility of a decisive breakthrough of Ukraine at the front, the role of the F-16 in changing the situation, as well as geopolitical risks associated with the upcoming elections in the United States. Samus is also considering where to look for weapons for Ukraine if the United States stops military aid after the elections. His analysis is based on a deep understanding of military strategy, enemy technical capabilities and international politics.

“There are analysts who say that Ukraine should take up strategic defense now and gather forces for 2025-2026. But I believe that the geopolitical situation is developing in such a way that we may not have a chance. The Kremlin’s plan is to break through the front and force Ukraine to capitulation against the backdrop of a change in the geopolitical situation. First of all, we are talking about the elections in the US and the possibility of Trump coming to power, which may call for negotiations with Putin. This leaves an impression on the whole year of 2024 that we really have to try to change the situation.

It is necessary to make non-standard decisions, one of which may be the blockade of Crimea, which is the “center of gravity” of this war for both Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, even Russia’s loss of effective control in Crimea will completely break all its plans, and we will seize the initiative. This could be the destruction of the Kerch bridge, the cutting of the land corridor to the peninsula, the destruction of air defense systems and the basing of the Russian air force and fleet on the territory of Crimea.

On the other hand, if we imagine that as a result of the situation in the Kursk region, the regional center will be taken under control, then Russian propaganda can pretend that nothing happened. Because if we recognize this (the control by the Ukrainian Defense Forces of settlements in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation – UP), then this means recognizing the weakness of the regime, and it will be necessary to carry out a general mobilization. Russia has no reserves if the offensive in Donbas is not stopped. And to stop in order to transfer troops to the Kursk region is absolutely not part of the paradigm that the Kremlin has created for itself.” – emphasizes the military expert.

Mykhailo Samus believes that everything was simple until 2024. Our strength was the Western approach in tactics and strategy, when commanders had more freedom in choosing methods and ways to achieve the goals of operations; advantage in drones and reconnaissance. According to him, the Russians did not have such technologies at that time. In general, they approached in a very standard way, they incorrectly assessed the Ukrainian army and the nation.

“And to this day, I believe that Russia lost this war in February-March 2022, and now, thanks to huge resources and huge losses, it is trying to achieve a positive way out of it for itself. We have an advantage in an automated control system. The same “Nettle” , “Delta”. The Russians do not have such systems. If we talk about Russia, their main advantage is the mass of human resources, aircraft, and missiles. This is a huge problem, because this mass often makes it possible to advance on the front.

One of the biggest problems for us is the impossibility of countering Russian FABs (high-explosive aerial bombs – UP) and KABs (guided aerial bombs – UP). These bombs are not very accurate, but due to the fact that the Russians use more than a hundred of them a day, in some areas our positions are simply erased. It is also important to have good management and coordination. There is a lot of criticism of the current management system, because we have brigades that often do not work as a single unit on the battlefield, but act as separate units. We can have super-trained soldiers, officers, but they cannot perform tasks effectively if the vertical of command is ineffective. And often this leads to big problems and loss of personnel.

Someone says: “Let’s create divisions that can provide a sufficient level of coordination of units.” Apparently, this can be done, but it will be a departure from the Western doctrine and a return to the Soviet one, because the Soviet army was preparing to fight in divisions. The American army does not fight in divisions, although they have divisions, but it is more of a training center in which brigades are trained, which then conduct joint operations.” – says Samus.

According to the expert, the discussion about what the ideal management format can be is now very important. And apparently no one is against improving this system. The only thing is that we don’t have time. There are many questions as to how much the Russians still have enough resources in the form of equipment, which they extract from some bases on the battlefield. They have already emptied 75-80% of most of the bases for storing weapons and military equipment. What are the prospects now? According to estimates, by 2025 they will still have enough tanks and armored vehicles. Then the shortage will begin.

“Now the Russians produce no more than 20 tanks a month from scratch. And if they produce 150-200 tanks a year and can repair 500-600 tanks – these are not the numbers when you are talking about a war with NATO or with China. They need thousands tanks, but they will no longer have them.

Unfortunately, they can still fight with us for at least a year – one and a half – two years, depending on how they will restore all this. And, of course, depending on how we will destroy this armored vehicle. And here there is an important point. Now everyone is talking about FPV drones, but we have a very powerful anti-tank component – our Stugna, which is no worse than the Javelin. Therefore, we need to invest in its production.

The problem of the Russian Federation is that it is the largest country in the world, so it is a burden on the air defense and missile defense system. It is also a burden on their military-industrial base. For example, destroying a few Su-34s is a huge problem for them, because they cannot produce dozens of them every month. Therefore, strikes on any military or industrial facilities in Russia are useful for many reasons.

The easiest thing F-16s can do now is shoot down Russian cruise missiles. But in order to work on ground targets and air targets, targeting information is needed. The F-16 still needs AWACS (Airborne early Warning and Control System) or those Swedish planes that we were promised. They will see all enemy targets – land, air, sea at a depth of 400-500 km. We can have AMRAAM missiles with a range of at least 100-150 km. And this will mean that we will be able to shoot down Su-34 planes that will try to launch anti-aircraft missiles. This will significantly change the situation on the battlefield.

From the end of 2022, both in the USA and in the European countries of NATO, the program to increase the production of projectiles finally began. In 2024, we will reach a level where, in principle, by the end of the year, both the United States and our European partners will produce approximately 2 million projectiles per year. This is the minimum that would be sufficient for the Ukrainian troops to have a certain conditional parity on the battlefield, not in terms of quantity, but in terms of the effectiveness of the use of artillery.

There is no such thing yet, but there is a Czech initiative that helps us a lot. Within its framework, the Czech Republic is looking for shells from manufacturers outside NATO and the European Union.

If at the state level the United States will not help us, but defense companies will have the right to sell weapons, it may be that the Europeans will buy them from American manufacturers and sell them to Ukraine. This option is not excluded.

Even if you imagine that in 2025, the Americans will again drop out of aid to Ukraine due to discussions in Congress, it will not be so tragic, because Europe will reach its production level by then and they will be able to compensate for something to a large extent. The fact that European politicians have finally woken up and started investing in the defense industry gives us the opportunity to look forward with a little more confidence.

If you imagine a situation where oil prices are falling, I think that within a few months Russia will not be able to provide itself with such a “commercial mobilization” and it will have to conduct an ordinary one, which may cause tension among the population, as it was in 2022.” , – says Samus.

The military expert said that there is a great need for human resources at the front. According to him, the law on mobilization solved the main issue: we have updated the data. This, by the way, was a big blow for Russian propaganda, which said that “no one wants to fight” in our country, that our “country is empty.”

“If we talk about what we should do next, then I believe that we need to move to financial recruiting. In my opinion, the material motive is one of the main incentives to go to war. Paying decent money to a person who performs his work professionally and selflessly is about respect

People who went to fight, for example, in February 2022, can be demobilized. But on the other hand, even if the same number of new people is recruited, the combat effectiveness of the units will drop sharply, because there will be no experienced servicemen, officers, and specialists. So when can there be demobilization? First, when a certain amount of reserve will be collected and it will be possible to carry out demobilization on a rotational basis. Another option, which we do not discuss, is when the same negotiations and the cessation of war will begin.

When they say: “We will now pass a law and start demobilizing” – this is populism. Because the military leadership is very against it. They will not be able to keep the situation under control, because they will have such a shortage of personnel that entire units will lose combat capability. And this will mean that the Armed Forces will not be able to fulfill their tasks.

If we imagine that Putin does not occupy the entire Donetsk region by December, then his ultimatums during such possible negotiations will look frivolous. So why is Putin going in the Pokrovsky direction? Because there he is currently having the greatest success, it is where the Russians have so far managed to break through our defenses the most. If they manage to advance further on it now, then they will throw in more reserves to expand this breakthrough. Therefore, now Putin’s minimum task in order to have a serious position at the negotiating table is Donbas. If less, it will be a problem for him.” – concluded Mykhailo Samus.