China seeks to lead the peace process in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in order to secure the status of an influential world leader. The fact that no Chinese initiative is transparent to the world community needs no proof. It is enough to mention the well-known Chinese stratagems, each of which focuses on concealing intentions, cunning maneuvers, and non-obvious influences. To deceive the sky in order to swim across the sea, or to observe a fire from the opposite shore. These are only two out of thirty-six. Chinese diplomacy is not read according to the most obvious signs, because far-sighted strategic plans and economic interests are often hidden behind the facade of peaceful initiatives.
Even now, China demonstrates peace initiatives and readiness to help end the war, creates 6- and 12-point peace plans, meets with representatives of countries that are parties to the conflict. However, it adheres to its own strategic interests. External caution and peaceful rhetoric allow Beijing to strengthen its international image and influence, while at the same time providing for its own foreign policy and foreign economic needs.
Loot during a fire
This well-known Chinese stratagem indicates the possibility of profiting from the difficulties and crises of another. And it is extremely appropriate in the context of Chinese “activity” in peace initiatives
Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China at the invitation of China and used the opportunity to try to convince Beijing to use leverage on Russia to end the war. However, China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi, despite his stated desire to find a diplomatic solution, cautioned that “the conditions and time are not yet ripe.”
It is clear that China has strong opportunities to facilitate the conclusion of a peace agreement thanks to Xi Jinping’s close ties with Vladimir Putin. The factor of Russia’s dependence on trade with China in commercial and military goods is also important. And such levers, obviously, could be used by China to influence the Kremlin. Moreover, the organization of a peace agreement corresponds to the strategic plans of Beijing, which claims the role of a great peace-loving power, which is an alternative to the United States. Kuleba, who focused on China’s declared goal of being a leader in global security challenges, expected much greater activity from Beijing.
However, China was cautious and vaguely formulated the statement about “conditions and time”. Why is Beijing, having leverage over the Kremlin, in no hurry to fulfill its proclaimed role as a peacemaker?
Hide a dagger behind a smile
The most obvious reason is that neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready for peace talks. Putin’s terms include a demand that Kyiv cede territory in eastern Ukraine and pledge not to join NATO. Kyiv refuses to participate in negotiations while Russia clings to its annexation ambitions. The space for diplomatic maneuvers in this situation is very limited.
But if territory is the main point of contention, why isn’t China pressuring Russia to abandon that goal? Isn’t it clear that Russia needs China more than China needs Russia, and therefore Beijing can risk presenting its demands to Moscow. China also has a significant influence on Ukraine. Therefore, it can be assumed that he expects compliance from Ukraine, which currently appears more interested and flexible in the peace process. It can also be assumed that China is benefiting from export markets in Russia caused by Western sanctions.
However, China would not be China if it did not make the most of the peacekeeping mission in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Make something out of nothing
Beijing is taking advantage of global tensions to create a positive image for foreign propaganda. It is important for China to respond to the US accusation that Chinese organizations support Russia’s war against Ukraine. Beijing is using Kuleba’s visit to demonstrate that US accusations against China of being a “decisive factor” in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are not being taken seriously even by Kyiv. There is an opportunity to work on the attractiveness of the external image, the Chinese Communist Party is trying to use such meetings to legitimize its position.
Pointing to the acacia, scolding the mulberry
In Chinese diplomacy and politics, this strategy is used to influence someone without jeopardizing one’s own position or relationship. This allows you to act carefully and maneuver in difficult situations, while saving face and not revealing your true intentions.
It is indicative that Chinese the media write about the almost completely different reports on the content of the meeting between Kuleba and Wang Yi, which were made public by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and China.
This shows the scale of disagreements between Kyiv and Beijing. The so-called “external interpretation” indicates that Ukraine expects help from China in peace negotiations with Russia. From the Chinese point of view, it obviously means that Kyiv is hyperbolizing China’s capabilities and intentions and does not understand its true position. Ukraine has “requests”, but no “requests” from China, Chinese media write. Instead, China has a “China-Brazil Six-Point Consensus Plan.”
Lure to the roof and remove the stairs
In the context of diplomacy or strategic planning, this technique can be applied to gain advantage or control over a situation. For example, a country may initially show interest in cooperation or offer favorable terms, and then, when the other party is already involved in the process, change the terms or make additional demands, making it impossible to return to the previous terms.
The so-called “peace plan” provides for the following:
- – compliance with the “three principles” to cool down the situation: stopping hostilities, not aggravating the conflict and not spreading it to new territories;
- – recognition of the fact that dialogue and negotiations are the only possible way to resolve the crisis;
- – avoiding attacks on civilians and civilian objects, protecting women, children and other victims of the conflict, as well as respecting the basic rights of prisoners of war;
- – countering the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and avoiding nuclear crises;
- – countering armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities; joint support for international cooperation in energy, finance, grain trade, transport, etc., support for the security of key infrastructure such as oil and gas pipelines, energy facilities and submarine optical cables, as well as ensuring the stability of the global supply system.
It is worth recalling that the previous plan from China had 12 points and provided for the parties to the conflict to respect each other’s territorial integrity. The clause disappeared and, accordingly, Beijing’s position on this issue was exposed. Meanwhile, everything started so encouragingly for Ukraine. China presented its plan as a comprehensive and balanced approach to resolving the conflict, emphasizing the need to respect territorial integrity and the principles of international law. Over time, however, key points that could have enabled constructive dialogue between the parties were revised or removed. This shows Beijing’s pragmatic approach to creating new conditions for negotiations and adapting its strategy to the changing global circumstances.
Conceal your goal and wait for the right moment
So, China is playing according to its own script. He did not participate in the peace summit in Switzerland last month, because Beijing cannot lead the peace process, so it loses all the advantages that the role of mediator can give it. Beijing seeks to win the support of the widest possible range of countries, and it is not important that these will be purely the states of the global south. It has already been announced that 110 countries have supported the peace plan. Who exactly – China prefers to remain silent, so that the scale of support speaks for itself. Ultimately, while it is in China’s interest to spearhead a peace deal in the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, the benefits of waiting for a strategically optimal time outweigh the potential risks.
Beijing deliberately refrains from participating in specific peace processes, so as not to jeopardize its diplomatic position and ability to influence the situation in the future. This approach allows China to maneuver and adapt its strategy depending on developments, while saving face and trusting in the availability of broader support that it plans to use at a strategically advantageous moment.
