Peace summit in Switzerland: SWOT analysis and forecast of results for Ukraine

Neutral Switzerland is an ideal and traditional place for various international events, the international peace conference on Ukraine (summit) in the resort town of Bürgenstock on June 15-16 was no exception.

About 93 states and international organizations announced their participation in the discussion of the Ukrainian peace formula at the summit, but information appeared that much fewer countries would participate. At present, it is known about the participation of 78 participating countries, but there are no official comments from the Office of the President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine yet. On June 2, Volodymyr Zelenskyi reported that more than 100 states and international organizations had confirmed participation in the world summit, but according to him, the Russian Federation was blackmailing some leaders and trying to block the participation of some countries.

The summit plans to discuss the Ukrainian peace formula, which is based on the UN Charter. If it were only about Ukraine, it would be necessary to explain a large number of historical events and facts to the representatives of dozens of countries, starting with the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada on state independence in 1991. These historical realities are close and understandable only to Ukrainians, but for many foreigners they are very distant. That is why it would be difficult to get the support of such a plan from a significant part of them. At the same time, the UN Charter is understandable and important for everyone, because it mentions, in particular, respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. During the adoption of the UN Charter in 1945, countries undertook to renounce the use of war as a means of conducting their policies, as well as the violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries.

The Ukrainian peace formula was announced in the summer of 2022, but the presentation of the final document took place only in November during the G19 Summit. This is typical diplomatic practice – it took time to gain the support of as many countries as possible. The protracted war in Ukraine has a negative impact on electoral sentiment in Western democracies, the state of world trade, and threatens the food security of poor countries. It seems that everyone is already tired of war, but the direct participants in the conflict are not going to give up their goals, and the international community cannot come to a unanimous decision on how to end it.

It is indicative that Russia was not invited to the peace summit in Switzerland because of Ukraine’s position. In addition, from the very beginning, the Russian Federation demonstrated its lack of interest in its implementation.

“As you know, Russia was not invited at this stage. From the very beginning, I have always emphasized that the peace process is impossible without Russia. We have always been open to extend an invitation to Russia. However, Russia has stated several times, including publicly, that it is not interested in participating in this conference.” – said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, Ignazio Cassis.

In addition, on June 11, at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, where the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024 is being held, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that Russia should not impose its plan to end the war it unleashed in Ukraine on us.

At the same time, the absence of China at the summit is a great disappointment for Ukraine, because China is the de facto leader of the global South, most of whose leaders also refused to attend the event. It should be noted that China has its own Peace Plan, which, as usual, is “for all good against all bad” with unclear and blurred goals. It contains only a call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the beginning of peace negotiations, but without clearly defined outcomes of the war. Such a position essentially leads to the freezing of the conflict for many years, which is tantamount to the loss of territory by Ukraine and the emergence of a de facto new divided Korea or Cyprus. Most of the countries of the Global South are rallying around this plan. As a result, these proposals turned into a Chinese-Brazilian peace initiative, in which, in addition to Ukraine, the participation of Russia is necessarily foreseen. There is a possibility that such an international forum will be held before the end of the year in Saudi Arabia.

SWOT analysis and forecasts

Strengths

1. The participation of a large number of states increases the significance of the summit and provides an opportunity to reach certain important agreements. The desire of key players to achieve peace can contribute to reaching compromises and constructive solutions.
2. Solidarity with Ukraine – international support of our country in its pursuit of territorial integrity and sovereignty strengthens its position in the negotiation process.
3. Increasing the role of Ukraine in the international arena as an active participant in peacemaking processes.
4. Unity in condemning the aggression of the Russian Federation, which contributes to the creation of a unified position on the need to end the war.
5. Involvement of international donors and investors for the reconstruction of the affected regions of Ukraine.

Weak sides

1. Switzerland has a neutral policy, which limits its influence on key players and may make it a less effective mediator in the conflict. As a neutral country, Switzerland has less influence over major powers such as the US, Russia or China, making it difficult to achieve effective international security guarantees. The neutral status and complexity of the negotiation process can lead to prolonged negotiations and the absence of concrete results.
2. The draft joint statement of the peace summit, the final version of which may still change based on the results of the negotiations, contains only three main principles out of the 10 previously planned by the Ukrainian Peace Formula, which are purely humanitarian in nature:

• Nuclear energy facilities must be safe, and any threat of using nuclear weapons is unacceptable. Nuclear installations, including the power plant in Zaporizhzhia, must operate under the control of Ukraine and in accordance with the principles of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
• Food security should not be a “weapon”, it should be guaranteed by free navigation in the Black and Azov seas. Ukraine should have access to third parties for its agricultural products.
• The need to return to Ukraine all prisoners, including all “deported and illegally displaced” Ukrainian children and civilians.

That is, the draft document does not call for the withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, it only emphasizes the importance of the participation of the Russian Federation in discussions regarding the achievement of peace.

Challenges and risks

1. There is a risk that agreements will not be honored, as happened with previous agreements.
2. Geopolitical challenges – the ambiguous role of the UN and the OSCE can be both a support and a hindrance, depending on their decisions and actions. The influence of the USA, the EU, China and other major powers on the process of peaceful settlement is unpredictable.
3. Internal political differences in Ukraine may weaken the position of the Ukrainian delegation at the negotiations. The influence of oligarchs and other interested parties can affect the political decisions and compromises that Ukraine is willing to make.
4. Different interests of the participating countries regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Some countries may support Ukraine’s territorial integrity, while others may be interested in maintaining their economic and political ties with Russia.
5. The influence of Russia, which may try to “pressure” other countries to support its position, which can make it difficult to reach a consensus.

Opportunities

1. The high-level meeting of the leaders of states and governments creates an opportunity for direct dialogue and reaching consensus on the key issues of the war in Ukraine.
2. Strengthening diplomatic relations between Ukraine and other countries, establishing new channels of diplomatic communication and cooperation.
3. Formation of coalitions of countries that support the peace process for joint work on conflict resolution and ending the war.
4. The possibility of attracting international investments to restore the affected regions of Ukraine.
5. Economic cooperation, improvement of conditions for the development of trade between Ukraine and other countries, initiation of joint economic projects that will contribute to the recovery of our economy.
6. Involvement of international organizations in the provision of humanitarian aid to victims of the war in Ukraine.

Thus, the Global Peace Summit raises many hopes and expectations, but also comes with significant risks and challenges. On the one hand, there are hopes that this event will contribute to the establishment of peace, the restoration of the economy and the improvement of the social situation in Ukraine. On the other hand, high risks of non-fulfillment of agreements and internal conflicts can disrupt the process of peace negotiations.

The summit will open an opportunity for “limited” future negotiations with Russia, it should be the culmination of work on the Ukrainian peace formula. After the discussion, the leaders of dozens of countries will create their plan for achieving peace on its basis, which they plan to present to the Russian Federation in the future.

It is unlikely that the summit will be a breakthrough event and will be able to finally put an end to the war. The Ukrainian peace formula, which was supposed to serve as a road map for the establishment of peace, is so far only a club of persuasive and loyal supporters of Kyiv who sympathize with us. Currently, the world is in a diplomatic tug of war.

It is obvious that the main argument at any international negotiations is the factor of our success on the battlefield, leaving no hope for diplomacy – the ability of Ukraine and its international partners to act in the direction of achieving a common goal. The results of the summit will not mean the end of the war, but will be the first, very important step on the way to peace.

Oksana Ishchenko