The debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and their significance for Ukraine
On June 27, the first debate between presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which will play a significant role in the election process, will take place in the USA. Although they are not mandatory, both candidates seriously prepare for them in order to appeal to voters and present their programs.
US presidential debates are usually held at the end of the election cycle after the nominations of the political parties. Americans gather in large halls and watch the debates live. Moreover, the format of the debate can vary: sometimes questions are asked by one or more journalists-moderators, and sometimes by the audience in the hall.
History of presidential debates in the USA
Presidential debates in the USA have a long tradition, starting from the middle of the 19th century. Although the first official presidential debate took place in 1960, its origins can be traced back to the 1858 debate between Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas.
The first televised debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960 was a turning point in the history of the presidential race. The visual aspect of the debate played a decisive role – Kennedy looked young and confident, while Nixon, who had given up make-up, looked tired and sickly. These debates demonstrated the power of television as a political communication tool and had a significant impact on the outcome of the election.
After a hiatus in 1964 and 1968, the presidential debates resumed in 1976. Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford became the first candidates to debate after the revival of this tradition. It was in this debate that Ford made the mistake of saying that the Soviet Union did not dominate Eastern Europe, which cost him the support of voters.
With the advancement of technology, presidential debates have become even more accessible to a wider audience. The 2008 debate between Barack Obama and John McCain was the first to be broadcast on the Internet, allowing millions of people to watch it live on their computers and mobile devices.
Over the years, candidates began to pay more attention to preparing for debates. Strategic rehearsals, work with consultants and the use of modern media technologies have become an integral part of training. For example, the 2020 debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was marked by new rules that included turning off microphones to prevent mutual interruptions.
As planned in 2024
On June 27, the debate is scheduled to last an hour and a half, with two-minute closing statements. In this case, one candidate’s microphone will be muted when the other is speaking to prevent interruptions. This is done in light of the lesson of the 2020 debate between Biden and Trump, in which the latter constantly interrupted his opponent. One day, Biden couldn’t even stand it and shouted: “Will you shut up, man?” (“will you shut up, man?”).
Joe Biden approaches the debate with Donald Trump very carefully. The difference this time is that Biden has less time to prepare because of his presidential duties. The main part of the training takes place at Camp David, where he focuses on showing himself as a stable and experienced leader, in contrast to Trump, whom Biden presents as a threat to democracy and women’s rights. Biden plans to emphasize his achievements and criticize Trump’s radical positions.
Among other preparations, Biden plans to criticize Trump for his past and current statements, as well as highlight important Democratic values such as protecting women’s rights and access to abortion. This is part of Biden’s strategy to show voters that his approach is more deliberate and stable compared to Trump’s chaotic style.
Trump, for his part, is preparing for the debate in a more informal way, holding sessions with Republican senators and political experts. He plans to contrast his achievements during his presidency with what he sees as the failures of the Biden administration. Although Trump is known for his improvisational style, he is looking to improve his debate tactics, given previous mistakes such as excessive interruptions of his opponent.
Also, at the debate, Trump plans to pay special attention to the scandal surrounding Biden’s son Hunter, who was recently convicted on three charges related to the purchase of weapons while allegedly addicted to drugs.
Both candidates will also heavily use the media to promote their messages before and after the debate. Biden and Trump intend to make the most of this important moment for their campaigns, emphasizing their key themes and differences in approaches to governing the country.
The debate will be moderated by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, with no studio audience and no written prompts for the candidates. These conditions will create a special context for comparing the styles and strategies of both candidates in front of the whole country.
Probably, during the debate, everyone will evaluate not only the programs of the candidates, but also their style of behavior and ability to hold their own in public. In the 1992 election, this very fact played a cruel joke on George W. Bush: at the debate, it turned out that he did not know many everyday things from the lives of ordinary citizens. After the debate, a large part of the TV viewers was shocked by the manners of the current president and perceived them as a sign of disrespect for himself.
In addition, the physical capacity of the candidates will be important for voters, because Joe Biden is 82 years old, and Donald Trump is 78 years old. At the same time, both candidates will need to spend more than an hour in the stressful conditions of the dispute. In the history of the United States, there have already been attempts to use this factor – during a televised debate in 1984, the correspondent of the Baltimore Sun, Henry Hewitt, reminded the 73-year-old President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, that he was “the oldest president in the history of America” and hinted that this would prevent him from accepting solutions in crisis situations. To this Reagan replied:
“I will not make age a topic of discussion during this campaign. I have no intention of taking advantage of my opponent’s youth and inexperience for political purposes.”
Possible questions that will be raised during the debate. Will there be a conversation about Ukraine?
Most likely, during the first presidential debate, the candidates will try to describe the role they believe the United States should play on the world stage. An aggressive Russia, an emboldened China, a tense Middle East – these are the foreign policy issues that neither Biden nor Trump will be able to avoid if they win the elections in November.
Most likely, the most attention of the candidates will be attracted by the war in Ukraine, which, as many fear, may develop into the Third World War. The Biden administration sounded the alarm before Russia invaded in February 2022 and promised to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” But U.S. support weakened this year when congressional Republicans delayed passage of a $61 billion aid package by half a year.
At the NATO summit in Washington in July, Biden will try to strengthen allies’ commitment to support Ukraine and, at the same time, transfer some of the responsibility for coordinating support to Kyiv to allies in Europe. Thus, it is believed that he wants to protect the support of Ukraine from a potentially hostile Congress or a future president.
Trump’s attitude to the war in Ukraine is more complicated, it is contradictory and colored by his own experience of communicating with the president of our country. After all, it was the telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyi that became the reason for his first impeachment. Trump was then accused of improperly seeking help from a foreign power to boost his re-election chances when he asked Zelensky to help him discredit Biden politically. The Senate, in which the majority was Republicans, acquitted the US president.
It should be remembered the words of Trump in his recent interview:
“I will settle the issue with the war in Ukraine even before I enter the White House as president-elect.”
At the same time, he did not specify how he would do it. Trump only spoke about the need to start some kind of negotiations, said that he is ready to participate in these negotiations between Putin and Zelensky, but did not specify what the future plan for reaching a peace agreement would be.
During Trump’s presidency in 2017-2021, support for Ukraine was less pronounced, and some of his statements regarding relations with Russia caused concern in Ukrainian society. Trump has repeatedly criticized US spending on international aid, including support for Ukraine, and called on European countries to make more commitments on the issue.
At the same time, the current US president is known for his consistent support of Ukraine. During his presidency, Ukraine received significant military and financial aid, including the supply of modern weapons, economic support and sanctions against Russia. Biden has repeatedly stated the importance of supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, as well as the need to continue the sanctions policy against the Russian Federation. Biden recently assured Zelenskyi that their new ten-year bilateral security agreement serves as another reminder to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the US will not back down. Moreover, together with Ukraine, they oppose this illegal aggression.
Possible consequences for Ukraine
If Joe Biden remains in office, we can expect a continuation and possibly an increase in military aid to Ukraine. This could include supplying the latest weapons, expanding training programs for the Ukrainian military, and strengthening intelligence cooperation. In the event of Trump’s victory, military support may decrease, which will create additional challenges for Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
In addition, Biden will continue the policy of tough sanctions against Russia, which will increase economic pressure on the aggressor. In addition, we can expect additional financial assistance for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy. Trump, in turn, may revise sanctions and economic aid, which will create uncertainty in this direction.
The Biden administration actively worked to strengthen the international coalition of support for Ukraine, including EU countries, NATO and other international organizations. Continuation of this course will ensure stable support in the international arena. Trump, on the contrary, may focus on domestic affairs of the United States, which may reduce the level of international support for Ukraine.
Also, the USA, under the leadership of Biden, is actively working to reduce Ukraine’s dependence on Russian energy sources, supporting the development of alternative energy sources and the supply of gas from other countries. Trump may pay less attention to this area, which may affect Ukraine’s energy security.
Therefore, the upcoming debate will be an important moment in the presidential race, where both candidates will try to show themselves from the best side and convince voters of their readiness to lead the country.
The elections in the USA in 2024 will have a significant impact on Ukraine. The choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will determine the direction of American policy towards Ukraine for the coming years. Continuing Biden’s course would mean maintaining and strengthening support, while Trump’s victory could lead to policy changes that would create new challenges for the Ukrainian state. In any case, Ukraine should be ready to adapt its foreign policy in accordance with new realities and continue to strengthen its position in the international arena.