The death of the president of Iran: reactions of the world and the first political forecasts

The death of the first persons of influential world, and especially nuclear, states usually raises a question of a planetary scale: What will change? To whom will the power pass? Will the changes affect the situation in the region and the world?

We are particularly interested in these issues in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, given the international politics that determine Ukraine’s partners and antagonists as a whole.

The death of the president of Iran, a country directly involved in Russian aggression, is certainly an event that deserves analysis and forecasts.

It will be recalled that on May 19, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, as well as other high-ranking officials from a visit to Azerbaijan, crashed.

Raisi’s death came amid internal divisions in the country over a series of political, economic and social crises linked to international pressure on Iran over its nuclear program and cooperation with Russia. It is not surprising that the resonance surrounding the tragedy revealed different attitudes of countries towards Iran, its policies and actions in the international arena.

Indeed, this resonance is quite varied: from deep sadness to cautious optimism regarding global changes in favor of the democratic world.

A number of Eastern countries (Iraq, Pakistan, India, Qatar) expressed their condolences and reported their sadness over the “martyrdom” of the first people of Iran.

The Houthis of Yemen and Hamas also expressed their deepest condolences and solidarity to “the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the Iranian government and the Iranian people” regarding “this huge loss”.

Pragmatically to the death of high-ranking Iranian officials the oilmen reacted, noting the increase in oil prices due to political uncertainty.

An influential American publication Foreign Policy wrote that Raisi’s death marked the end of a brief but tumultuous era in Iranian politics that saw the country veer sharply toward hardliners and bring the Middle East to the brink of regional war.

During his almost three years in power, Raisi steered Iran’s policy in a more conservative direction and made the country a clear antagonist of the United States.

He continued the line of his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who, failing to reach a detente with the West over Iran’s nuclear program, intensified attacks in the region through proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Yemeni Houthis.

Agency Reuters offered a short dossier of the deceased president, which allows you to assess his influence:

• candidate for the post of supreme leader of Iran
• a protégé of Ali Khamenei and a sharp critic of the West
• harshly cracked down on dissent within the country
• maintained an uncompromising position in the nuclear negotiations
• involved in the executions of the 1980s

Let’s also add that Iran, under Raisi’s leadership, supported Russia in the war against Ukraine through the large-scale export of Shahed kamikaze drones and artillery.  Iran has increased its attacks by regional proxies against the US and Israel since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. A month before Raisi’s death, Iran carried out a massive drone and missile attack on Israel.

Will Iran’s foreign policy change with the death of the president?

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Raisi’s death will not change the regime’s current trajectory towards a tougher and more conservative domestic policy and a more aggressive regional policy.

Serhiy Danilov, deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said on Radio Svoboda that the situation could change for both Iran and our country if the next Iranian president changes course from pro-Russian to pro-Western.

He also believes that the plane crash was a consequence of long-term sanctions on Iran’s aircraft industry. Even the first persons of the country used outdated helicopters, which led to tragic consequences.

According to S. Danilov, Raisi was a creature of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and a strict executor of his will. Without a shadow of a doubt, he suppressed any protests. The Russian project and the confrontation with the West, together with the expansion of influence in the Near East, became the basis for Raisi in asserting politics and power inside the country.

Iran’s vice president will now organize the election, which has been given 50 days. It is assumed that the supreme leader will do everything to prevent popular and insufficiently obedient politicians from entering the electoral list at the stage of nomination of candidates for the presidential seat.

At the same time, this death can trigger internal competition and an elite split, S. Danilov is convinced. – Not everyone in the Iranian establishment supports the pro-Russian course and rapprochement with Russia, which Raisi pursued together with the supreme leader. There are enough voices, in particular in the Cabinet, to deny this political vector and find ways to interact with the West. Therefore, candidacies and elections are very important, despite the fact that there are organizational mechanisms in Iran to cut off candidacies that would satisfy Kyiv from the electoral process.