US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall III noted that China is preparing for war with the US. Fortunately, the understanding of the “elephants” and the “donkeys” regarding the need for the US to more actively deter China is getting stronger. At the same time, some experts hope that the economic problems of the Middle East – stagnation of the real estate market, growing public debt, aging population and slow growth rates – will force Beijing to reduce defense spending, and the Chinese army will not be able to challenge the United States in the near future. Despite economic troubles, China’s defense industrial base is ahead of America’s in some key areas.
Factors affecting the geopolitical situation between the United States and China
Let’s recall the current political and economic context of relations between the two superpowers. Trade wars and tariff disputes between them create tensions and affect global markets. An important aspect of their relationship is the competition for leadership in 5G, AI and semiconductor technologies. China is actively investing in infrastructure projects around the world through the Belt and Road Initiative, which influences the global economy and politics.
The United States is concerned about the expansion of China’s military presence in the South China Sea. The source of criticism from the West is the issue of human rights in China, in particular the situation in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
The development of China’s defense capabilities is not only due to, but also in spite of
Despite economic difficulties, China is actively developing its defense industry, increasing spending and production of new weapons. From 2021 to 2024, China built more than 400 fighter jets, 20 large warships, doubled its stockpile of nuclear warheads and increased its number of missiles. A new bomber was also developed and the number of satellite launches increased. This is the largest buildup of military power since World War II. China has become a military heavyweight, and the US is not keeping up.
Xi Jinping aims to create a world-class armed forces for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. The main role in this is played by large state-owned enterprises China Aviation Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Company. These military-industrial giants are among the five largest in the world in terms of combined revenue from defense and non-military activities.
Over the past decade, China has significantly increased its presence in the global defense industry. If earlier Chinese companies were not among the top 12 largest defense companies in the world by revenue, now there are 5 of them.
Chinese defense companies such as China Aerospace Industries Corporation, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, China North Industries Group, China South Industries Group, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation are now competing with American giants such as Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Boeing , Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics.
China Aerospace Industries Corporation develops and manufactures military and civil aircraft, as well as aircraft engines and systems. The Chinese state-owned shipbuilding company specializes in the construction of warships, submarines and commercial vessels.
The growth in revenues of Chinese defense companies is also associated with active government support and investment in the defense industry, which allows them to expand their production capacity and introduce new technologies.
Not only the volumes of defense production contribute to the military rise of the Celestial Empire. Beijing has also improved the research, development and acquisition of weapons systems, allowing the People’s Liberation Army to produce advanced platforms in such complex fields as carrier-based aircraft, hypersonic missiles and propulsion systems.
In addition to military hardware, the PLA has built a digital architecture that, in the event of war, will help the Army coordinate command, control, communications, computer, cyber, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance networks, as well as deploy firepower with artificial intelligence, large data and other latest technologies.
Secrets of the success of the military forces of the Middle East and the United States
The Chinese Navy leads the world thanks to its powerful shipbuilding potential. Yes, one Chinese shipyard on Changxing Island is more powerful than all American shipyards combined. China produces everything needed for the navy: engines, weapons, electronic systems, submarines, surface ships and drones. China has built many new ships in the past decade, including the Shandong and Fujian aircraft carriers, the latter equipped with a modern catapult system to launch aircraft.
Although China has more ships than the US, they are smaller in tonnage and have less firepower. The US is also building more modern nuclear powered submarines. However, Chinese shipyards can ramp up production of warships faster, giving China an advantage in a protracted war.
China’s defense industry also produces sophisticated aircraft. Although the US has the largest fleet of fifth generation fighter jets, China is quickly catching up. The China Aerospace Industries Corporation produces almost all of the country’s military aircraft and has significant research capacity. By 2023, China has produced more than 2,000 4th and 5th generation fighter jets, which is approaching the figure of the United States. China is also actively developing the production of drones, which it uses during exercises around Taiwan.
China is modernizing its missile arsenal and plans to have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from 200 in 2019. Two major rocket companies have expanded their facilities and hired more workers. In 2021, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than all other countries combined. In 2020, China launched the DF-17 hypersonic missile capable of hitting targets in the western Pacific Ocean. In contrast, the US has problems with hypersonic missiles, and none of its prototypes have entered service in 2024.
China has also made significant progress in space, with 67 launches last year. They improve launch vehicles, satellite systems and technologies for countering the enemy’s space potential. The new Yaogan-41 satellite can track objects the size of a car, threatening US and allied assets.
China’s military is the largest land force in the world, with more tanks and artillery than the US military. Chinese defense companies have increased production in many categories, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, assault vehicles, air defense systems and artillery.
Who is China a threat to?
China poses a serious threat to the United States and its allies: Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan. China has thousands of missiles capable of hitting both the continental United States and overseas bases that house American aircraft, ships and other infrastructure. China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles threaten US ships in the South China and East China seas.
Despite the obvious threat from China, the US has not prepared its defense industry for a possible conflict. The U.S. military does not have enough ammunition and equipment for a prolonged war in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or East China Sea. In conflict simulations, the US is rapidly depleting its stockpile of critical missiles. The contract and procurement system is outdated and not suitable for wartime. Supply chains are also weak, with China dominating production of critical materials. In the event of a conflict, China could block access to these materials, making it difficult for the U.S. to manufacture defense equipment.
The American labor market cannot supply enough skilled workers for the defense industry. This is especially true of shipyards, where there is a shortage of engineers, electricians, pipe fitters, shipbuilders and locksmiths. In 2024, the U.S. Navy said its first Constellation-class frigate with guided missile weapons will be commissioned at least a year later due to a shortage of several hundred workers.
Frigates are essential to carrier strike groups because they protect sea lanes. Construction of the Block V version of the Virginia-class fast submarine, which will be critical to attacking Chinese landing craft in the event of war, is at least two years behind schedule for the same reasons. The launch of new destroyers with guided missile weapons, which provide air defense, is delayed by three years.
Problems of the Chinese defense and industrial base
China’s military industry depends on large state-owned enterprises with complex organizational structures, which reduces their efficiency. In addition, the industry is corrupt: three high-ranking defense industry officials were fired late last year as part of an anti-corruption campaign.
China also has weaknesses in the supply chain of motors, high-end chips, integrated circuits and manufacturing equipment. The sinking of a Chinese nuclear submarine at a shipyard in Wuhan earlier this year shows that the country still needs to improve the production of complex systems. Although the Chinese military is large and well-equipped, it has not had significant combat experience since the 1979 Vietnam War.
The United States needs to close the gap with China’s defense and industrial base. First, the urgency of the problem and the scale of the necessary measures should be recognized. A presidential initiative to rebuild the defense industrial base could help with this, taking cues from historical models such as Roosevelt’s War Production Board, Harry Truman’s Office of Mobilization, and Ronald Reagan’s Emergency Readiness Council.
Washington must solve the main problems of its defense-industrial system. The Ministry of Defense needs a more flexible contracting and procurement process. There is a need to reduce contract times and help innovative companies move from prototypes to contract execution faster. Congress should fund multi-year purchases of key munitions.
To address the workforce shortage, the Pentagon should offer financial incentives for employee training. It is also necessary to invest more in education to prepare people for work in the defense-industrial complex. In addition, the US must revive its shipbuilding sector by increasing investment in commercial shipyards and developing a skilled workforce.
A year before the attack on Pearl Harbor, which dragged the United States into World War II, Roosevelt urged the country to quickly build everything necessary for defense. Today, with China’s rapid rearmament and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the US should once again heed his advice to be prepared for potential conflicts.
Tatyana Morarash
