The visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to European countries has undoubtedly become one of the main topics of political speculation. This event resembles a stunning performance-show of the master of symbolic dramas. Europe is visited by the Chinese leader (after the liquidation of the personnel rotation system that existed during Deng Xiaoping’s time, it is difficult to call him otherwise), yes, not yet Mao, but not yet Deng.
The mystique of the leader’s visit lies both in its date and in its geography. Xi Jinping arrives in Europe as Putin’s new term is being inaugurated in Moscow. Many were sure that “leader of the Chinese people” will mark the main holiday with his presence “Northern Neighbor”, but it did not happen, and this is the most important thing about Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe. As in the story about Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson – the most important thing was the dog that didn’t bark.
You can assume, but when it comes to “Chinese leader”, all other forms of analytics can be consigned to the dustbin, that Putin’s inauguration seemed too unrepresentative to Xi Jinping to attend. And indeed, although today the rostrum of invited guests is not completely empty, if you put it aside “leaders” of various calibers, it was filled mostly with diplomats.
However, political happenings are not limited to this. It is hard to believe that Xi Jinping “accidentally” made his international visit to Europe five years after the previous one, when Putin staged his main political show of the year. Putin certainly expects that the entire world political party at this time, without even arriving in Moscow, will still watch TV and convulsively decide: what is happening in the Kremlin right now? In a Soviet film “Theatre” according to Maugham’s book, there is such a scene: a brilliant actress, in order to destroy her competitor on the stage, at the moment of her monologue, goes to the proscenium in a chic and bright red dress, and is silent! It is clear that the audience already sneezes that there is this chicken clucking in its monologue, and all attention is on this stunning silent figure on the proscenium.
This is roughly how Xi Jinping’s visit to Paris can be viewed against the backdrop of Putin’s inauguration. And the most interesting thing in this situation is that “Northern Neighbor” not in a position to say anything to Xi Jinping. The play is done and the audience can only guess what they just saw? But, of course, like a good Shakespearean play, a visit “Chinese leader” has many meanings.
Xi Jinping is making it clear to European politicians that he is only interested in dissidents. It is no coincidence that this visit, the importance of which has skyrocketed due to the extreme rarity of Chinese visits of this level, is actually directed only to Serbia and Hungary, which have very strained relations with the ruling bureaucracy of Europe. It seems that this is what is important here. The visit, which, de facto, may not be in Putin’s favor, is unlikely to be grist to his mill. It is important for Xi Jinping that both Hungary and Serbia are dissidents in the eyes of European officials, and a visit to them is also a démarche against the European bureaucracy.
In fact, it is very difficult to assess the full ritual significance of these two days of Xi Jinping’s visit to Paris. The unbearably high honor, from the point of view of the Chinese, which they give to Hungary and Serbia, is just a cold shower for European officials, who say that we will really talk only with dissidents. However, the Paris part of the visit is much more difficult.
This year is the time of elections both in Europe and in the USA. According to an American political analyst from Fox News, the Biden administration recently, despite its good relations with “Chinese comrades”, began to strongly promote the opinion of the media in the media “Chinese threat”. The head of the FBI got into this game and started a whole campaign to blame Chinese government hackers for attacks on US energy. In addition, the Democrats are very actively playing a spy story with a former Google employee who worked for Chinese intelligence. This analyst believes that this is just a game, not because China does not engage in such activities, but because Democrats usually look down on it. What was repeatedly discussed in the US Congress. However, right now, in the conditions of the failure of Biden’s domestic policy in the country, it may seem to someone that betting on an external threat can be convenient for the current president’s election campaign.
In any case, increasing PR tensions between the administration of President Biden and the apparatus “Chinese leader” recently, it may have forced Xi Jinping to temporarily leave his Celestial Empire and appear in Europe. This visit looks too unexpected: five years of silence – and “hello, I’m your aunt from Brazil!”. There is no doubt that Xi Jinping has no illusions about the position of the Biden administration – they know the price of all this PR. But the visit provides an opportunity to remind the whole world about himself, and in this respect it is undoubtedly connected with Biden’s PR campaign.
Paris, which since the time of de Gaulle has always liked to portray an individual player (with Macron it has become almost a mania), the perfect place for a tick, reminding Europe of itself for “Chinese comrades”. Safe ritual dances arranged by human rights defenders – it is necessary to prove that they fight not only with Israel, but also with totalitarian countries, a kind of stage addition to choral arias “Chinese guest” and European officials. In general, all ritual games were observed. And in this case, Macron won the main prize: Xi Jinping apparently publicly demanded that a truce be established in Ukraine during the Olympics in Paris. As the poet wrote there: “The women shouted hooray and threw their hats in the air!”.
What are the other reasons for the Chinese leader’s visit to European countries? For strategic and economic reasons, China is trying to disrupt the unity of both NATO and the EU. Each of the three countries he visits is seen by him as a potential lever for “shaking cracks” in the West. At the same time, it should be noted that Chinese foreign policy experts are fascinated by French talks about the need for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy” from the USA.
“Keeping NATO countries away from Asia and preventing America from binding its allies in Asia and Europe is a key goal of Chinese foreign policy… Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe also has a strong economic component. And in these matters, France is a much more difficult partner. Macron, may not challenge China over Taiwan, but the future of the French automotive industry is another matter.” – the article says about this Financial Times.
One can agree with this opinion, especially since Chinese electric cars have a significant economic advantage over American and European competitors. Their export is crucial for the Chinese leader’s plans to revive the state’s economy.
At the same time, the peace project between Ukraine and Russia, which is advancing “Chinese leader” in European countries, of course, will be in favor of Russia. China is preparing a base for the future attack on Taiwan, and it will never punish the attacker on Ukraine. But where are they, those strong politicians who can help our state? Unfortunately, the only thing that comes to mind is a very caustic adventure monologue “Huckleberry Finn” Mark Twain – “There is no real man”. Unfortunately, there are no such in the European arena, which is why the visit of the Chinese leader is in such a hurry.
Leonid Shtekel
