In the third year of the war, the answer to the question about the future of Ukraine now lies on the surface – it is the struggle for the liberation of its territory. Undoubtedly, the most important issues now are defense capability, military aid and mobilization. However, no less important should be the questions: what next? What risks and challenges will we face in the day after war? You need to look for answers to them in advance, and not live one day at a time.
It is known from the history of civilization that any crises are not only difficult periods for the survival of the state, but also an incentive for its qualitative growth. That is why the existing negative scenarios should be considered primarily as opportunities. For the third year in a row, our country has demonstrated to the world its ability not only to survive, but also to become stronger – to develop a new defense-industrial complex, IT technologies, to conduct business on a new digital basis.
Currently, the scale of the destruction caused by the military actions in Ukraine requires $ 486 billion for the next 10 years, which will go to the repair of critical infrastructure, the construction of housing and public facilities, as well as the restoration of the economy. Only in 2024, Ukraine needs about $15 billion for urgent reconstruction and restoration measures, while the housing sector, transport, trade, industry, energy and agriculture are considered to be the most affected. This is stated in the results of the “Rapid Assessment of Damage and Recovery Needs” (RDNA3).
Of course, everything destroyed will have to be rebuilt in a new way, even better than it was. Economic relations with some of our long-standing partners will probably also be reviewed, but new strong trade contacts may also emerge. As our partners promised us, reconstruction will be done with their help, with the investment of their funds, and also (perhaps) at the expense of reparations received from the Russian Federation. However, all this looks optimistic given the vital changes implemented by Ukraine in arranging one’s own life both “on the mountain” and in grassroots structures on the ground.
What is needed to restore Ukraine?
Currently, a deep crisis is taking place in the country – many enterprises, residential buildings, institutions and institutions have been destroyed, the hole in the state budget is a quarter of the GDP, depopulation and other critical processes are observed. In order to restore all this, Ukraine needs a clear development strategy, which, unfortunately, does not exist now. Authorities prefer micromanagement and replace the strategy of state development with “strategic” communications. For example, how can we talk about a national income strategy if there is no national economic strategy? If there is no strategy for the development of the country as a whole, accordingly, there is no answer to the main question of the last two years – how are we going to defeat the enemy and restore territorial integrity?
One of the rules of management is: if there is no time to plan, it means that now is the time to plan. In order to survive and hold on to the edge of the geopolitical abyss, Ukraine needs a clear plan for the reproduction of the state of the future, which will define global goals, a civilizational vector, doctrines for the development of all spheres of the state and society, as well as the dogmas of the social contract. At the same time, the political doctrine must be completely different, different from the existing pseudo-democracy. As you know, it is one of the main instruments of degradation of the entire East Slavic civilization, it is because of it that the political and social structures that inhibit the development of states were formed. Pseudo-democracy leads to the power of pseudo-elites, thoroughly corrupt and indifferent to the needs of society. She turned off social elevators, blocked the ways to self-realization of creative and critical thinking people who do not have “useful connections” and money, which provoked their mass emigration to foreign countries.
Ukraine must comply with the dominant world trend – civilized construction of all spheres of life. It should be understood that global competition boils down to the competition of highly integrated civilizational systems, the properties of which are the presence of a single technological economic complex, high integration of the political and administrative complex, society’s awareness of its unity, the global level of interests and opportunities, and much more. At the same time, for all the attractiveness and value of the European experience, we cannot completely repeat its path. It is very important for us to choose only our own, aimed at real independence from any countries.
It should be understood that European investments will not be directed to the development of a hotbed of corruption and a politically uncertain country. Our partners have already pointed out to us that in order to advance our development towards the European community and in the Euro-Atlantic direction, it is necessary to carry out a serious cleansing of the government (the Greeks called this process catharsis – a radical cleansing from the negative past).
That is, after the war, Ukraine will have to continue another struggle – fight for a new life. In it, one of the main factors should be the restoration of the economy and industry, which we have almost lost. At the same time, one should stop constantly waiting for international help and stand with an outstretched hand. If we want real independence, then we must be able to rebuild and develop the state ourselves. We also have to strengthen our own defense capability – develop the military industry, find ways for recruiting, technology the Armed Forces and modernize the army management system.
In addition, Ukraine must prove its attractiveness to potential investors and partners. According to research by Advanter Group, the low investment attractiveness of Ukraine is explained not so much by war risks, but by an unattractive investment climate. At the moment, Ukrainian businesses export their capital and invest significant resources outside of Ukraine due to the lack of attractive investment projects, imperfect legislation and its selective application, pressure from law enforcement and regulatory bodies, low level of economic freedom, insecurity of rights, raiding, etc.
Now, as before the war, Ukraine is significantly lagging behind in one key issue – the bodies of power structures (administrations, executive units and elected bodies) do not fulfill their purpose. The reason for this lies in the unhealthy political system in the country, in the fact that the state does not serve the people, but increasingly oppresses and punishes. Security forces and officials at the central and local levels are inextricably linked, and corruption scandals are becoming increasingly common, ending with the release of wealthy offenders from the courts on bail. At the same time, ordinary people were and remain lawless, and laws operate selectively only for them.
In addition, we have an inadequacy of many political parties, most of which have actually ceased to exist long ago, but are still registered. Among them, there are quite a few who hardly started political work – their composition numbered several dozen, sometimes hundreds of people who were unable to influence anything. It is not known what they all do. Many may have questions: how are party issues and the restoration of the state connected? The answer is simple and obvious: the ways and vectors of its development on a national scale and at the level of individual regions and localities are decided by elected bodies (councils of all levels). Candidates are not always party members, but still depend on their “patrons”. And now let’s think together – if shady financing schemes are widespread in party structures, where people rule who do not profess and do not know the ideological platform on which this party stands, if for these candidates for power structures, political work is “business and nothing personal”, then what are our chances to improve our future?
So, it is during the elections that we can influence the change of the scenario of our future, but recently this task has been made as difficult as possible for us. Therefore, it is necessary to “cleanse” the political community and radically reduce the list of political forces-applicants for power. In addition, such a phenomenon as “elections without a choice” should be avoided, according to which Ukrainians are placed in such limits that they have to choose between “bad and even worse”. Now there are no elections, but the political process continues, its essence should lie in the strength of civil society, its influence during state decision-making. It is not his inaction, but clear demands and control over the actions of the authorities that can change our lives for the better. It is necessary not to divide and swear in social networks, but to act together in order not to allow corrupt officials to feel impunity, to dominate and set the rules of the game.
In addition, after the war, Ukraine will face more problems, which will have to be solved very thoughtfully and carefully. Will the refugees return to the Motherland? Most likely, far from all. Currently, the state is doing everything to reduce their number. If effective measures for the return of Ukrainians are not applied, there will be no one to rebuild the country, and this will further affect the demographic crisis.
Employment of military personnel who have lost their jobs and qualifications for a long period of time will also be extremely important problems. In addition, they will need serous rehabilitation – both physical and psychological. Along with this, it will be necessary to fight crime in the state after the war, the level of which is predicted to increase significantly. This was written in detail in the article “Crime in Ukraine: is the war or the police to blame”
Ukraine should borrow the experience of advanced countries, for example, Singapore, on the way to recovery and solving the mentioned problems. Even 60 years ago, this country was one of the poorest countries, its people were begging, ordinary rice was considered a luxury for people, buildings and the port lay in ruins. In addition, the country was a British colony. A 30-year-old lawyer, Lee Kuan Yew, won the general election in 1959 and became the first prime minister of the now independent Singapore. First of all, he solved the problem with the colossal level of unemployment. After the British army left the island nation, it lost more than 30,000 jobs and 20% of its GDP. However, the new prime minister found a way out by betting heavily on foreign investment, developing industries such as electronics, engineering and shipping. He also provided enterprises and factories with the best conditions: extremely cheap land, low customs taxes on imports, and most importantly, cheap labor. Efficient financial management, low taxes and a transparent bureaucracy created an environment that was conducive to business development in every way.
Later, the country established a Housing and Construction Council to build affordable high-rise buildings. Under the effective management of the state, the priority was not only the development of the economy, industry and housing, but also the unification of people, according to which the population from different communes lived together without any segregation. In addition, a comprehensive anti-corruption strategy was implemented in Singapore, as a result of which in 1996 it took 7th place in the Corruption Perception Index among the countries of the world and 1st place among the countries of Asia. The country received 8.8 out of 10 possible points on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means the highest level of corruption and 10 the lowest. In 2022, Singapore rose to 5th place in the Corruption Perceptions Index, scoring 83 points out of a possible 100.
So, in a relatively short time, Singapore managed to make a giant leap in its development – from a third world country to a developed state with a high standard of living. At the same time, effective public administration, the fight against corruption and the introduction of transparency of government decisions became one of the key factors that made this possible.
Can Ukraine have a happy future?
Most likely, yes, but we need to protect the state and our freedom, and then, in order to ensure a peaceful life, carry out radical changes in all spheres of state administration, preparations for which must be made now. This, first of all, will significantly increase the motivation of our military. They will see that by risking their lives and health, they are not protecting corrupt officials and lawlessness, but the territorial integrity of the state, which is really striving to change for the better. Defending a just and more prosperous life that awaits them in the future after the war. Only a united, active civil society and an efficient, fair government, oriented towards the people, is an effective way to restore Ukraine.
