“A ceasefire may come as early as Easter, it is well felt in the intensity of shelling and offensives”: Tim Collins
For more than three years now, millions of Ukrainians have been waking up not thinking about plans for the day, but expecting news from the front. Fatigue, devastation and a sincere desire for peace can be felt in them everywhere – from those who now live in Ukraine to refugees. While the country’s leaders talk about peace initiatives, maximum activity does not abate at the front. According to Western military analysts, both sides (both Ukraine and the Russian Federation) are trying to seize as much territory as possible before diplomacy has the decisive word. This is what ex-British SAS special forces officer, Royal Irish commander for the invasion of Iraq, military expert Tim Collins, points out in an author’s column for The Telegraph. His analysis is an attempt to see what is behind the latest developments on the front.
Ukrainian tactics
Tim Collins notes that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Belgorod Oblast is smaller in scale than last year’s advance to the Kursk Region, but has clear dynamics. According to him, the Ukrainians use Western armored vehicles, in particular dozens of American Bradley fighting vehicles, which are scarce and strategically important. This means only one thing: the goals justify the risks.
Ukrainian forces capture the heights, create a threat to several settlements, forcing the Russians to transfer reserves from other areas of the front. According to Collins, this can be both a self-sufficient goal — to wear down the enemy — and an attempt to scout by combat: to find weak points in the Russian defense in order to later transfer more powerful formations there. Such tactics, he said, are very similar to the Soviet military doctrine, which is still actively used both by the Russians and by some units of the Armed Forces, which disappoints Western military instructors and advisers.
Russian tactics
Collins paid particular attention to the tactics of the Russians, which he describes harshly and without embellishments. According to him, the Russian army throws people into battle, including wounded soldiers, sometimes with crutches, who are deliberately pushed forward to provoke fire from the armed forces. This is aimed at identifying Ukrainian firing points and then throwing the main forces. The expert calls this tactic the “last breath” of the Russian army, which is losing personnel resources, but retains the ability to throw new and new masses of mobilized soldiers to the front.
“This may just be a reflection of the fact that, like a game of musical chairs, the music will stop, maybe next month. When that happens, you have what you have. Speaking to some Ukrainian soldiers who visited the United Kingdom last week on a lecture tour, they told me that the manifestation of this on the Russian side is the last-gasp attempts with attacks on the human wave. These attacks are initially led by the walking wounded, some with crutches pushed forward to draw Ukrainian fire before the main effort rushes forward in reckless attacks.
All of which points to both sides acknowledging the end is near, with Ukrainians using precious equipment sent from the West to gain ground and influence, and Putin rejecting what he sees as useless wounded companies in a last push before tough Stalinist-style negotiations. For Putin, ammunition costs money, but the dead cost nothing.” – believes Collins.
All for the sake of a negotiating position
A military expert believes that Russia is trying to seize as much territory as possible, regardless of losses, and the Ukrainians are using all available weapons, even if it is equipment from allies that is difficult to replace. Collins emphasizes that now both sides are “playing a game” where every occupied hill, every freed or captured village is a valid argument in future negotiations.
According to a military analyst, both sides believe that the end is near. And that is why each of them is trying to change the map of hostilities as much as possible, until diplomacy stops the guns. Collins indicates that the ceasefire may come before Easter, and this is well felt in the intensity of shelling, offensives, maneuvers.
“What we are seeing now is a tense final act before a likely diplomatic pause.” – summarized Collins.
