After the tightening of sanctions, the budget of the Russian Federation loses 20% of oil and gas revenues
Due to the forced discounts on Russian oil, caused by the strengthening of sanctions by the USA, the income of the Russian federal budget from energy resources has significantly decreased. For two months in a row, the Russian budget has not received approximately 20% of the planned revenues from the oil and gas sector. This is reported by rosZMI.
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in March 2025, tax revenues from oil and gas exports decreased by 17% year-on-year and amounted to 1.08 trillion rubles. In monetary terms, this means a decrease in revenues of approximately 230 billion rubles compared to March 2024. As the publication notes, the drop in raw material rent by almost a fifth has been recorded for the second month in a row.
“The situation is sensitive. These are noticeable losses, which will have to be covered either by additional borrowing or by using the National Welfare Fund (FND), which has a small amount left“, — notes Chief Economist of T-Investments Sofia Donets.
According to her forecasts, during the year the budget of Russia may not receive up to 2 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues, which is about 18% of the planned 10.9 trillion rubles.
The main challenges for the Russian government are related to the price of oil and the exchange rate. The Urals variety is traded on the world market for less than $60 per barrel, although the budget included a cost of $70. At the same time, the dollar rate fell to 84 rubles, which is significantly lower than the 96.5 rubles per dollar predicted by the government.
To compensate for the budget deficit, which in January-February already exceeded the annual plan by three times, the government will probably be forced to resort to devaluation of the ruble. Currently, the rate of the Russian currency is considered to be overvalued by about 20%, and by the end of the year it may fall to the level of 100-105 rubles per dollar.
