The European public is worried about the upcoming elections in America. European Commission created a special group, to prepare for the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House This group consists of a narrow circle of officials in Brussels.
The main goal of the community is to develop a strategy for Europe in case Trump becomes the president of the USA again. European leaders are concerned about possible changes in US policy that could affect trade, security and other aspects of Europe-US relations.
In particular, European officials fear that Trump may actualize the “America first” policy, which could lead to a decrease in US support for European security and changes in trade relations.
Why Trump’s “America First” policy causes fears of the European community
This key foreign policy doctrine of the Trump administration focused on the priority of the national interests and national security of the States. According to this doctrine, minimal US intervention in international conflicts was assumed and instead envisaged a focus on domestic affairs, the introduction of tariffs and other restrictions to protect the US economy from foreign competition, withdrawal or revision of US participation in international treaties and organizations such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership . Instead, the US could demand that NATO allies increase their own defense spending to reduce the financial burden on the US.
At one time, this policy caused debate both in the country and on the international arena, as isolationist and controversial.
It is easy to understand why some countries were afraid of the “America First” policy. After all, sharp changes in US foreign policy created uncertainty for allies and partners who did not know what to expect from the Trump administration. The withdrawal of the US from international agreements and organizations weakened global cooperation and left other countries without the support they had counted on.
Trade wars and the introduction of tariffs have negatively affected the economies of many countries, which has caused concern about the stability of international trade. These factors forced many countries to review their strategies and look for new ways to ensure their security and economic stability. Demands on allies to increase defense spending and a possible reduction in the US military presence in Europe have raised security concerns, especially in the context of Russia’s aggressive policy.
So, the concern of the European community is understandable, given the current rhetoric of the odious former American leader and the fruits of his past reign. European politicians are well aware that a change in American policy can significantly affect Ukraine and Eastern Europe. If the US reduces military support, it could weaken the defense capabilities of Ukraine and the Eurozone.
The transformation of American political doctrine may affect the amount of financial assistance that the United States provides to Ukraine and its neighbors, including direct economic assistance and support through international financial institutions.
A reduction in sanctions pressure, which can be expected under the Trump administration, could strengthen the position of the aggressor country and contribute to the escalation and prolongation of the conflict.
“America is back” – “How long?”
In 2021, at his first G7 summit as president, Joe Biden told allies that “America is back.” They answered, “How long?”
Three years later, the question has become even more pressing as the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House becomes increasingly real. Europe survived Trump’s first term, but a second term could be even more dangerous, especially with Russia’s ongoing incursion into Ukraine. Many European leaders are concerned but are not speaking publicly. British diplomat David Lammy said he maintains ties with American lawmakers, including Trump supporters.
Privately, European lawmakers admit that preparing for Trump’s possible re-election is difficult because of his unpredictability. Trump’s first term was marked by trade wars, isolationism and skepticism about the EU and NATO. Trump vows to continue that policy, criticizing Europe over trade and defense spending.
Transatlantic observers are most concerned about Trump’s questionable commitment to NATO, which celebrated its 75th anniversary this year. Perhaps this is the main vulnerability of Europe vis-à-vis the US. While Trump is unlikely to be able to withdraw the US from NATO without congressional approval, he could demand that the eurozone significantly increase defense spending or reduce the United States’ role in European security.
Despite increased defense spending in Poland and Germany, Europe is still heavily dependent on American security guarantees. Many Europeans worry that America’s commitment to Europe will be less stable if Trump is re-elected, and that Europe will have to do more for its own security.
Europeans fear the instability could affect US support for Ukraine, which is already facing delays due to opposition from Republicans in Congress. Europeans emphasize the need to protect support for Ukraine from possible changes in Trump’s policy.
Trump may again turn to tariff wars and connect different political issues – trade, climate and relations with China. His administration could threaten to withdraw US troops from Europe or change its policy towards Moscow if European countries do not change their approach to Beijing.
Europe must quickly form a unified position on key issues – support for Ukraine, climate change and immigration policy – to be able to effectively confront the Trump administration if he is re-elected. This is an extremely important task, since any disagreements between EU member states can be used by the US administration to weaken the overall position of Europe. However, achieving unity remains problematic due to internal contradictions in the EU itself, which is especially evident against the background of the growing popularity of far-right parties.
These political forces, which have already gained weight in some European countries, such as Italy, Poland, and especially Hungary, promote nationalism and Euroscepticism, which greatly complicates the formation of a unified position. Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, is a prime example of a politician who openly supports Trump’s ideas. His sympathies with Trump are based on common positions on national interests, skepticism of international organizations, tough approaches to immigration and opposition to liberal values that dominate the European Union.
Such a political split in the EU could become a serious problem amid the threat of Trump’s return to the White House. If Europe remains divided on fundamental issues, such as supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia or the fight against climate change, it could lead to a weakening of its influence on the world stage. This especially applies to military support and sanctions against Russia. If Trump implements a policy of reducing the US military presence in Europe or revises sanctions against Moscow, this could weaken Europe and create opportunities for further Russian aggression.
Thus, the EU must overcome internal differences and act as a united front. This requires political will and compromises from all member states, as well as more active diplomatic work at the global level.
Therefore, the return of Donald Trump to power causes deep concern in Europe due to the possible consequences for European security, trade relations and support for Ukraine in war conditions. The “America First” policy that was key to his first term could deepen divisions between the US and its European allies, undermine transatlantic unity and cause unpredictable changes on the international stage. European leaders need to mobilize now to develop strategies to minimize negative consequences and prepare for a possible new reality in which America may choose a path of national isolationism that will affect the security and stability not only of Europe, but of the entire world.
Tatyana Morarash
