Commercial and entertainment infrastructure during war: the phenomenon of developer resilience
In 2025, at least 14 new shopping and entertainment centers are planned to open in Ukraine. This is evidenced by the announcements of large development companies published in specialized sources. Active construction of new facilities continues not only in the western regions, but also in the capital, the central region, and even in cities that are under constant shelling. At the same time, for the fourth year in a row in Ukraine, thousands of enterprises are operating in survival mode, critical infrastructure is constantly being destroyed. In this context, the revival in the field of commercial real estate, primarily retail and entertainment, raises a natural question: what are investors counting on? Is there a basis for the development of retail in the conditions of a reduction in the purchasing power of Ukrainians? How to explain the growth of development activity when risks remain high and economic uncertainty is systemic?
Malls during the war: imbalance of demand, risk of oversaturation and logic of developers
By 2025, developers in Ukraine announced the launch of at least 14 new shopping and entertainment centers. At the same time, more than half of them are planned in the central and western regions: Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernivtsi. Several more facilities should appear in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, even in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. Against the background of a long war, systemic economic losses and a reduction in solvent demand, such activity in the retail sector looks contradictory.
The general picture of the market indicates the recovery and expansion of commercial real estate. In accordance with data According to the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, there are 311 shopping malls in the country with a total area of 9 million square meters, of which 6 million are areas intended for rent. At the same time, in many cities, the amount of commercial real estate does not correspond to the real economic potential, and in some cases exceeds it.
After 2022, the volume of shopping center construction in Ukraine has increased again: we are talking about 56 objects that are in the process of construction or restoration. The total area of new shopping centers reached about one million square meters. More than 250,000 square meters are planned to be commissioned in 2025 alone, and another 280,000-290,000 in 2026. This was announced by the head of the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers and the operations director of Budhouse Group Maksym Havryushin.
He noted that even at the current pace of construction, the level of supply of retail space in Ukraine remains approximately twice as low as the European average. Before the start of the full-scale war, there were roughly 130 square meters per 1,000 inhabitants. m of commercial space. Now, according to experts, the total volume of the market (including temporarily occupied territories) is about 6 million square meters. This gives an indicator of 150–170 square meters. m per 1,000 people, depending on which population is taken as a basis — 35 or 40 million. In any case, this figure is significantly lower than European standards, where the average level of saturation exceeds 300 square meters. m, and in countries such as Sweden, Norway or Great Britain, it can reach 700–1000 sq. m. m per 1000 inhabitants.
So, the main argument of the developers is that even taking into account the new volumes, the commercial real estate market in Ukraine does not reach the level of saturation characteristic of European countries.
This ratio, according to the developers, justifies further expansion. However, formal “backwardness” according to average indicators does not take into account the specifics of the distribution of objects within the country, regional disparities, military instability, falling incomes and changes in consumer behavior. Yes, there are cities that even before the war showed an excessive concentration of residents in shopping areas. For example, in Kyiv – 561.7 square meters. m per 1,000 inhabitants, in Cherkasy – 436.7, Odesa – 428, Lviv – 360, Dnipro – 344.3, Kharkiv – 226.5. And even then there were difficulties with filling the space with tenants, so part of the mall was forced to reduce work or stop it completely.
The war only exacerbated these problems. Malls in many cities are exposed not only to economic risks, but also to direct threats of shelling and power outages. At the same time, the number of tenants decreases, the average check decreases, and the costs of security and operation increase. However, investors, in particular large developers, continue construction. This indicates either the calculation of distant post-war demand, or the presence of institutional interests that are not always connected with real consumer prospects.
In regions where market saturation is already critical for demand, the opening of new shopping centers does not guarantee stable occupancy. On the contrary, it creates competition between almost empty facilities, crowding out smaller players and increasing dependence on large networks. In such conditions, the rental policy becomes more aggressive, and small businesses become even more vulnerable.
The issue of funding also remains open. Some of the projects are implemented at the expense of previously raised funds, some — with the support of external investors who do not always assess risks taking into account the full context. There are suspicions that, in some cases, the construction of shopping malls can be a formal cover for holding plots or preserving capital in tangible assets.
As noted by Ukrainian developers, the construction of small shopping centers in the western regions of the country has become a characteristic trend this year. The reason for this is the limited opportunities for large-scale projects, on the one hand, and the focus on local markets with relatively stable demand, on the other. Among the key openings this year are two shopping centers of the “Epicentr” chain in the Kyiv region (one of them partially opened earlier) and the new phase of the Podolyany shopping center in Ternopil. Construction of new shopping centers is also underway in Odesa, Uzhgorod, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Chernivtsi regions.
The largest announced project remains the Ocean Mall near the Lybidska metro station in Kyiv. The total area of this facility is 300,000 square meters, of which 117,000 are for commercial rent. The format is a retail resort: part of the area (more than 30,000 square meters) is set aside for entertainment areas. The total investment in construction exceeds $400 million. Despite numerous postponements, the developer promises to open in the fall of 2025. Further development is also observed in regional projects. In Ternopil, a large entertainment park is planned to be opened within the second phase of Podolyany Mall, and commercial office spaces and co-working spaces will be included in the upcoming third phase. The developers emphasize that it is not about reconstruction, but new construction, including underground parking and a modern architectural solution.
According to CEO of Retail&Development Advisor Andrii Lototskyi, in October-November 2025, new shopping malls in Uzhgorod and Mukachevo, and in Ivano-Frankivsk – the A7 facility should be operational. All projects are at the final stage — facade and engineering work is ongoing, and in July the developers are waiting for tenants to move in to furnish the premises. Also, in the fourth quarter, the “Rytm” shopping center in Khmelnytskyi (50,000 square meters) and the IT Town Mall in Odesa (21,000 square meters) should open. UTG, a property brokerage company, clarifies that not all planned projects will be handed over this year: in particular, the Phoenix shopping center in Bukovel is likely to open no earlier than 2026.
It should be noted that according to the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, despite the war, the average occupancy rate of traditional shopping centers as of May 2025 is 98%, and that of specialized shopping centers is 91%. This testifies to the stable interest of tenants in commercial spaces, despite all the risks. At the same time, rental rates in the first quarter of 2025 varied depending on the area of the premises: up to 50 square meters. m — $38/m², 50–250 sq. m. m — $21, more than 250 sq. m. m — $17. This shows that the demand for new commercial formats persists even in conditions of prolonged conflict. At the same time, the market is focusing on projects with multifunctional content with co-working spaces, entertainment, educational or office spaces. This increases the facilities’ chances of stable occupancy, and allows developers to diversify risks.
How war, online retail and changing priorities transform the consumer behavior of Ukrainians
The purchasing behavior of Ukrainians has undergone significant changes under the influence of a full-scale war. Air worries, psychological exhaustion and declining incomes have forced a rethinking of not only how and where to buy, but also why. Shopping and entertainment centers, which a few years ago were important social spaces — a place for leisure, spontaneous shopping, and family recreation — are gradually losing their primary function.
According to research by developers, today people visit shopping malls less often, less willingly and less emotionally. The main reasons for such a change are cited by visitors as regular air alarms, a lack of shopping mood, as well as a banal lack of money. The number of those who participate in events on the territory of the shopping center – shows, events, concerts or children’s activities – has decreased many times. Centers gradually lose the function of a meeting place — and turn into ordinary points of consumption of the necessary.
The cost structure has also changed. The share of money spent in shopping malls on food and health-related products has increased significantly. On the other hand, consumption in the areas of clothing, footwear, children’s goods, entertainment and restaurants decreased sharply. If earlier more than 45% of visitors went to shopping centers specifically for clothes or shoes, now this is the main goal for only a third.
At the same time, the online segment became more active. The frequency of purchases in online stores among those who visit shopping malls has increased by one and a half times. On the one hand, this is a consequence of closing some physical stores or limiting their schedule. On the other hand, it is a logical continuation of the trend that began during the pandemic. Added to this is the economic effect: the average check in e-commerce grew by 17%, which shows the growing trust in large online orders. At the same time, more than 60% of buyers remain supporters of traditional shopping, and 17-20% adhere to a combined model: they first look for information on the Internet, then buy offline.
The role of the shopping centers themselves in this hybrid system is changing. In 2025, more and more malls will function as logistics hubs, where self-delivery of online orders will take place. A clear example of this is the “clothing and footwear” category, in which the volume of online purchases increased by 74% compared to the previous year. Often, customers do not choose home delivery — they pick up the product from an offline store. Thus, physical retail spaces become not so much a place for shopping as part of the e-commerce infrastructure.
Digital consumer behavior is also changing. If the presence on Facebook or Instagram remains stable, then TikTok and Telegram are growing rapidly. The share of shopping center visitors registered on TikTok doubled — from 20% to 40%. This reflects the shift in the age structure and interests of the audience, as well as the general dynamics of the digitalization of the consumer experience.
Against this background, the opening of new shopping and entertainment centers looks ambiguous. On the one hand, it is the creation of jobs, taxes to local budgets, support of local business. On the other hand, investing in a format that loses its relevance, especially in wartime, when any commercial object in the city can become a target. Real examples — attacks on shopping malls in Kremenchuk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson — prove that the infrastructure of consumption is not protected, and its recovery after the attacks is extremely difficult and expensive.
At the same time, the existing infrastructure is already underloaded. Many of the operating shopping centers have unfilled spaces, and attempts to compensate for the lack of tenants end in lower rates or increased pressure on small businesses. The competition between offline spaces for the audience is intensifying, but this does not change the general picture of consumer optimism.
In addition, shopping malls remain part of the urban environment, but no longer in their classic role. They are less and less a place of emotional consumption and more — a crossing point of logistics routes, a showcase for online stores, a space for tactical interaction, rather than a long stay. In such an environment, new projects have a chance only under the condition of a flexible, mixed concept — with office blocks, spaces for self-delivery, places of short-term stay, without counting on the long-term presence of the client.
In the conditions of war, shopping and entertainment centers are gradually turning into an infrastructural component of the new economy — not as places of rest, but as service platforms. The usual format of a shopping center with a cinema, food court and brand storefronts is going away. It is replaced by an omnichannel system, where the physical space performs a supporting function for online sales. In this context, the construction of another large shopping center is not only an investment decision, which today looks ambiguous.
The presence of numerous shopping centers does not mean the presence of economic growth. Often, this is only evidence of developer inertia, when projects are completed not because the market needs it, but because the process has already started. In a military economy, such objects create not so much added value as a burden risk: they do not bring income, require maintenance, and reduce the efficiency of resource allocation within the city.
Against the background of chronic underfunding of critical infrastructure, the lack of new schools and medical facilities, the expansion of the shopping center market during the war period looks dissonant. The needs of society do not always coincide with the logic of commercial investments, but it is precisely in conditions of limited resources that it is worth asking the question: what are we building, for whom and with what long-term goal.
Oksana Ishchenko
