As winter approaches, the Ukrainian authorities face a big challenge: to ensure a stable energy supply for the country’s population and enterprises. After the significant destruction caused to the infrastructure during the hostilities, the question arises whether the plan to restore energy before the cold season is realistic.
The winter of 2023-2024 turned out to be extremely difficult for Ukraine. Due to military aggression by Russia, many energy infrastructure facilities were damaged or destroyed. The restoration of these facilities is a priority for the government, which seeks to ensure energy security and stability in the country. As of June 2024, a significant part of the energy infrastructure has already been restored. According to the data of the Ministry of Energy, more than 70% of damaged substations and power lines have been repaired. However, much work still remains, especially in the regions where fighting has been most intense.
Before the full-scale war, Ukraine had enough energy system capacity not only for its own supply, but also for export. Due to constant shelling of the energy infrastructure by the Russians, the country lost 9 GW of capacity – half of what was consumed in peak periods.
Regular turning off of the lights has become a norm of life for Ukrainians. But, if shutdowns last for several hours already in the summer, what can we expect in the cold season, when electricity consumption is many times higher?
Government plans
This month, during the opening of the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024, the President of Ukraine said that thanks to gas electricity generation, it will be possible to restore 1 gigawatt of production by the end of the year.
“One of the key components for the stable functioning of Ukraine’s energy system is highly efficient, decentralized, maneuverable gas generation. It is able to solve the energy shortage issue already today, and in the future it can be transferred to hydrogen and balance the new “green” energy. In this field European and, in particular, German companies are technological leaders. We have a clear plan to build up to 1 gigawatt of capacity already this year and another 4 gigawatts in the coming years.” – said Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
However, such a plan of the government is called “unrealistic” by most energy experts.
“A gigawatt of gas shunting generation and built before the start of the heating season is really fantastic. I can say with confidence: the people who wrote this figure to the president lied. Even if it is possible to purchase and bring a sufficient number of turbines in time, the installation of the equipment, its testing and the start-up, as well as other technical points, need more time,” Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, believes.
“Up to one gigawatt of gas-fired shunt generation and another 4 gigawatts in the coming years – in reality it is impossible. Gas generation is not built for six months from the moment of the application. Find turbines, determine the installation location, make a project, connect, train the teams to operate them – in the best conditions, the conditions are not the best: the turbines that were brought in last year have not been launched yet – there are not so many equipment manufacturers on the world market. All that can be done – to build the foundations. Instead of real decentralized generation projects, which consist of a mix of technologies: batteries, wind, gas, biomass.” – emphasizes Lana Zerkal, ex-deputy minister of foreign affairs and adviser to the head of Naftogaz.
At the same time, the director of energy programs of the Razumkov Center, Volodymyr Omelchenko, considers the plans announced by Zelensky to be realistic. However, the expert emphasizes that it will not be possible to do it in such a short period of time. To achieve the generation of 1 GW with the help of mobile gas turbines, at least 8 – 10 months are required.
How gas power generation works
The government and parliament are discussing the creation of alternative mobile generation based on gas turbine and gas piston power plants. These plants, which can have a capacity of 10 kW to 500 MW, run on natural gas, have high maneuverability and efficiency.
The installations planned for installation in Ukraine are small in size and sufficiently mobile. After launch, they should become almost unreachable for new Russian attacks. One of the key advantages of such mini-power plants is their ability to turn on in a matter of minutes when needed.
Mini power plants are effective because they can accelerate quickly – in just three minutes. For comparison, a nuclear unit needs three days for acceleration, a thermal unit needs 8-12 hours to “rise” from a cold state, and 0.5-1.5 hours from a hot one.
It is important to understand that a kilowatt-hour produced by a nuclear, solar or gas “peaking” plant are completely different products with different values.
Solar electricity is only produced when the sun is shining, not when it is needed. A kilowatt-hour produced by a nuclear power plant is different from one produced by a gas-fired plant. When you need more electricity, a nuclear plant will not be able to produce the extra power, while a gas “peaking” plant will.
The cost of electricity produced by a gas station at current gas prices exceeds 4 hryvnias per kilowatt, but it is extremely useful. The installation reaches 100% of rated power in five minutes and supports the power system during periods of peak consumption. Nuclear and “green” power plants cannot provide such flexibility,
How will we winter: how many capacities can be restored
According to Lana Zerkal’s estimates, in the best case scenario, it will be possible to restore 250 MW of electricity by winter, i.e. a quarter of what the president promised by the end of the year.
In such a situation, it is expedient to increase the volume of imports. Ukraine already imports 1.7 gigawatts of electricity from abroad. Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko believes that before the start of the heating season, Ukraine could increase the volume of electricity purchases by another gigawatt.
In order to survive the winter with a minimum number of power outages, it is also worth focusing efforts on protecting the energy infrastructure that has survived. The executive director of the DTEK company, Dmytro Saharuk, says that more air defense means are needed to protect the preserved or repaired infrastructure.
All experts in the field of energy agree that even under the most optimistic conditions (increase in generation, warm winter, increase in electricity imports), shutdowns cannot be avoided. The only question now is how many hours these shutdowns will last. If the situation does not improve at all, Ukrainians can expect 20 hours a day without electricity.
What have you already started doing?
Changes are already being made to the legislation and preferential loans are being offered for the purchase of energy-generating equipment for businesses and condominiums. For example, as part of the GreenDIM project, the state will compensate housing cooperatives and condominiums for up to 70% of the cost of installing solar panels, heat pumps, and implementing other measures to improve energy efficiency.
Ways of alternative generation are also being sought at the community level. This week, Petro Panteleev, deputy head of the KMDA, announced plans to build two CHP plants in Kyiv that will generate electricity by burning garbage. They want to build the same thermal power plant in Lviv.
New energy strategy
This week, the government approved the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for the period up to 2030. The document envisages an increase in the share of generation from alternative sources, as well as diversification of electricity production.
Among other things, it is about the implementation of the following goals:
- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 65% compared to the level of 1990;
• achieving climate neutrality of the energy sector by 2050 and the national economy in general by 2060;
• termination of the use of coal generation by 2035;
• reduction of methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to the level of 2020;
• ensuring the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the structure of total consumption at the level of 27% or more by 2030;
• increasing the share of use of alternative fuels (biofuel or its mixture with traditional fuel) and electricity in the transport sector to 50%;
• reduction of import dependence to 33%;
• implementation of technologies of “smart metering” of electricity and “smart networks”;
• development and implementation of innovations and research in the sector of “clean” technologies, renewable energy and low-carbon production.
Therefore, highly efficient, decentralized, maneuverable gas generation is an important component for the stable functioning of Ukraine’s energy system. However, the implementation of such ambitious plans in a short period of time is doubtful due to the complexity and numerous obstacles faced by the energy sector.
The main obstacles
- Security situation. Military operations in eastern Ukraine continue to pose significant risks to the safety of infrastructure and personnel involved in recovery operations. Damage to energy facilities and power lines can lead to delays and additional costs.
2. Logistical problems. Ensuring the supply of necessary materials and equipment is a difficult task in the conditions of war. Logistics chains are disrupted, affecting the timing and cost of projects.
3. Financial restrictions. The cost of restoring the energy infrastructure is extremely high. Ukraine needs significant financial resources, which may not be enough in the economic crisis. Attracting international aid and investment is critical, but may take longer than planned.
4. Technical challenges. Gas-fired power generation requires high-tech equipment and expertise, which may be limited due to crumbling infrastructure and a shortage of skilled workers. Converting generation to hydrogen requires additional research and development, which also takes time.
5. Time limits. Building and commissioning new generation capacity within one year is an extremely ambitious goal. Taking into account bureaucratic procedures, the need for approvals and permits, as well as the implementation of technical solutions, the terms can be significantly extended.
As you can see, the government’s statement to restore 1 gigawatt of energy capacity by the end of the year with the help of gas power generation is ambitious, but unrealistic due to numerous obstacles and restrictions. Despite the importance of this direction, more stable conditions and more time are needed for its successful implementation. Ukraine needs a comprehensive approach to restoring the energy infrastructure, which takes into account all the risks and challenges facing the country.
