“Domino effect”: political chain reactions from the past to the present

In the political world there is a phenomenon that is often compared to the “domino effect”. A single event can set off a chain reaction that leads to large-scale changes and other events that are difficult to predict. This effect can be observed both in the past and in the present. Let’s look at some historical and modern examples of the “domino effect” that influenced world and Ukrainian politics.

Imagine a long row of dominoes, where the fall of one bone inevitably leads to the fall of the next, and so on, until they all fall. This process, familiar to everyone from childhood, perfectly illustrates the principle known as the “domino effect”. Exactly one hundred and ten years ago, on August 6, 1914, the world saw how this effect became a reality. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo was the catalyst for a series of events that led to a global conflict. Austria-Hungary declared war on Russia, which was followed by a series of declarations of war: Serbia and Montenegro declared war on Germany, Germany on France, and Great Britain on Germany. That is, one conflict triggers a series of events leading to a global catastrophe. In less than a month, Europe found itself in the midst of a world conflict. Like dominoes, the political decisions of one country had a powerful effect on others, changing the course of history.

Historical examples of the “domino effect”

Cold war

It is interesting that the term “domino effect” first became widely used during the Cold War. John Foster Dulles, the US Secretary of State, used this concept to persuade Congress to authorize the president to use military force in Indochina. Dulles warned that the spread of communist ideology could lead to the loss of all of Southeast Asia, forcing the US to retreat to its pre-war positions in Hawaii. He emphasized that the process of disintegration will have extremely serious consequences.

After World War II, the Cold War began between the United States and the Soviet Union. This conflict had global ramifications as countries around the world were forced to determine their position vis-à-vis the two superpowers. The war in Korea, the revolution in Cuba and the war in Vietnam – all these events can be considered as examples of the domino effect, when the actions of one country had an impact on the political situation in other regions.

How the “domino effect” worked:

1. Nuclear race: US develops atomic bomb, Soviet Union responds by developing nuclear weapons of its own.
2. Ideological confrontation: Western democracy against Soviet communism leads to the creation of military blocs – NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
3. Conflicts around the world: the Korean War (1950-1953), the Vietnam War (1955-1975), the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) – all these conflicts are parts of the global confrontation between the USA and the USSR.
4. Collapse of the USSR: After decades of economic and military strain, the Soviet Union collapses in 1991, ending the Cold War.

Arab Spring

In 2010, a series of protests and revolutions in Arab countries began, known as the Arab Spring. It all started with the self-immolation of a fruit seller in Tunisia, which sparked mass protests against the government. This incident became the spark that ignited a wave of revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Syria and other countries of the region. Each of these revolutions had its own unique causes, but they were all connected by a common desire for freedom and justice.

The Arab Spring also became an example of the modern “domino effect”:

1. Self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi: In December 2010, Tunisian businessman Mohamed Bouazizi committed self-immolation in protest against government corruption.
2. Protests in Tunisia: Mass protests force Tunisian President Ben Ali to flee the country in January 2011.
3. Spread of protests: Inspired by the success of protests in Tunisia, citizens of other Arab countries are taking to the streets – Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and others.
4. Change of regimes: in Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak is removed from power, in Libya, Muammar Gaddafi is killed by rebels, in Syria, a civil war begins, which continues to this day.

The Crimean crisis and the war in Donbas

The Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity of 2013-2014 are vivid examples of the domino effect in Ukrainian politics. Mass protests against election fraud and corruption by Yanukovych’s government led to significant political changes, including a change of government and the beginning of reforming state institutions. These events also had an impact on Ukraine’s relations with Russia and Western countries, which in turn led to the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas.

In 2014, the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the start of the war in Donbas had a significant impact on the political situation in Ukraine and Europe. The annexation of Crimea prompted an international response, including sanctions against Russia and an increase in NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe. The conflict in Donbas also had long-term consequences for the domestic politics of Ukraine, contributing to the strengthening of patriotic sentiments and the reform of the defense sector.

The Ukrainian crisis of 2014 is a vivid example of the “domino effect”:

1. Political instability: Protests against fraud in the 2004 presidential election lead to a repeat vote and a victory for Viktor Yushchenko. Disappointment with Yushchenko’s government led to the election of Viktor Yanukovych as president in 2010.
2. Euromaidan: mass protests in Ukraine in response to the Yanukovych government’s decision to refuse to sign the association agreement with the EU in November 2013. The protests lead to the escape of Yanukovych in February 2014 and a change of government.
3. War and reforms: military actions in Donbas and the annexation of Crimea stimulate the processes of reform, strengthening of national identity and European integration.
4. Annexation of Crimea: Russia used instability in Ukraine to annex Crimea in March 2014.
5. International reaction: Western countries introduce sanctions against Russia, NATO strengthens its presence in Eastern Europe.

Brexit

The 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (Brexit) was a significant political upheaval for the entire continent. The British decision to leave the EU had far-reaching consequences, including political instability in the UK itself, changes in trade relations with Europe and the rise of nationalist sentiment in other EU member states.

Brexit also became an example of a political “domino effect” in Europe:

1. Referendum 2016: Great Britain votes to leave the European Union.
2. The political crisis in Great Britain: the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron, the change of governments, difficult negotiations on the terms of leaving the EU.
3. Split in the European Union: other countries begin to discuss the possibility of leaving the EU, nationalist and populist movements are growing.
4. Economic consequences: changes in trade relations between the UK and the EU, the impact on business and the economy of both sides.

Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a significant “domino effect”:

1. Full-scale invasion: On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2. Massive mobilization and international support: Ukraine declared mobilization and received support from the West in the form of weapons, financial aid and sanctions against Russia.
3. Changes in Europe: European countries are strengthening their defense, Finland and Sweden are applying to join NATO.
4. Energy crisis: sanctions against Russia are causing an energy crisis in Europe, countries are looking for alternative sources of energy.
5. Population displacement: millions of Ukrainians become refugees, creating a humanitarian crisis and affecting neighboring countries.
6. Mass death of people, thousands of wounded, destroyed cities and villages.
7. International support: Ukraine receives significant military and financial aid from the West and the United States, including the supply of modern weapons systems.
8. Strengthening sanctions: Western countries are introducing new sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on energy and technology exports.
9. Political changes in Russia: Internal instability in Russia is increasing due to economic problems and losses at the front, which may lead to changes in the country’s leadership.
10. Impact on the general world order: events in Ukraine contribute to rethinking the security architecture in Europe and the world, forcing countries to increase defense spending and strengthen alliances.
11. Effects of the War on Public Attitudes: The war contributed to significant changes in society, including increased patriotism, increased volunteerism, and a strengthening of national identity.

So, the “domino effect” is a powerful phenomenon in political events, both in the historical and contemporary context. From the beginning of the First World War to the Arab Spring, Brexit and the war in Ukraine – all these events demonstrate how any of them had further global consequences.

It is important to understand that even small events can have a huge impact. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the self-immolation of Tunisian merchant Mohamed Bouazizi, or Yanukovych’s decision not to sign the association agreement with the EU – all these events became sparks that ignited global changes. This indicates the need for caution and foresight in political decisions, as their consequences may be much greater than expected.

In addition, the “domino effect” emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and support. The successes of the Ukrainian military on the battlefield in 2023-2024 were made possible thanks to the support of Western partners. It is a reminder that global challenges require joint efforts and no country can tackle them alone.

Also, the “domino effect” emphasizes the need for a quick and adequate response to crises. Delaying decisions can only worsen the situation, as happened during the First World War or the Cold War. Timely and effective actions can prevent the further spread of crisis phenomena.

As we can see, understanding the “domino effect” teaches us important historical lessons that should be taken into account when making decisions, helps to better analyze current political processes and predict the possible consequences of certain decisions on the international arena.

Oksana Ishchenko